NBA First Basket Scorer Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (2/6)

Feb 6, 2023 - 2:06 PM

Let’s keep 2023 going right by winning some money in first-basket bets. As always, there is a lot of variability when it comes to betting the first basket but keep in mind, these bets are to maximize your profit in the long run with some being mere lottery tickets.

Last Week: 0-3 (-3U)
This Month: 2-12 (+2.5U)

Here are my favorite first-basket options for tonight’s slate.

And check out our other top picks for Monday:

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Monday’s Best First Basket Scorer Bets

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Portland Trail Blazers

With Brook Lopez tipping off against Drew Eubanks, you have to go with a Milwaukee first bucket tonight.

Eubanks holds an abysmal 29 percent tip win rate with Portland failing to score the first bucket half the time. Lopez on the other hand is a tip-off machine, winning at a 71 percent clip with the Bucks converting 62 percent of the time.

With Giannis sitting at +250, I have to go with Holiday here. Milwaukee has gone to their point guard nearly 30 percent of the time for their first team field goal made while Portland allows nearly a quarter of the opponent’s first buckets to come from the same position. I’m feeling solid about this play and throwing a unit on it.  

Jrue Holiday (+550)

Sacramento Kings vs. Houston Rockets

As a value play, I’m going with Davion Mitchell to score first in the Sacramento Kings vs. Houston Rockets matchup.

Both contestants attempting to win the opening tip aren’t all too impressive at doing so. Sabonis wins at a 35 percent clip while Sengun wins at a 36 percent clip. It’s a toss-up as to who wins the opening tip and with Houston’s bottom-of-the-barrel offense, I’m leaning toward Sacramento scoring first.

With De’Aaron Fox out, Mitchell has the opportunity to step up. His last two starts haven’t been the greatest but his usage rate saw a rise and Houston’s lackluster defense gives me confidence this first bucket can come from anyone. With the value play, I’m putting half a unit on this bet tonight.     

Davion Mitchell (+1000)

Boston Celtics vs. Detroit Pistons

To go with another semi-chalky play, I am going to fade Jayson Tatum (+340) and Jaylen Bronw (+410) and go with the next-best Boston option with Horford at +700. Robert Williams (+1000) is also an option.

The reason I am going with Boston to score first is that Williams is a tip-off connoisseur, winning over 75 percent of tips. The Celtics’ second-ranked offense gives me confidence they can convert over Detroit’s 26th-ranked offense and they shouldn’t have much to worry about from the Piston’s 29th-ranked defense.

Boston goes to their frontcourt to score first nearly half of the time. Between Williams and Horford, I simply lean toward Horford who has a bit bigger trust factor going for him. It’s close, and honestly, you can throw a dart for any of these Boston players, so I am going to wager only half a unit here. 

Al Horford (+700)

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All opening tip and first basket data courtesy of NBA First Basket (@NBAFirstBasket)

Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.

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