NBA Player Prop Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (3/21)

Mar 21, 2023 - 8:42 PM

Tuesday’s NBA slate has just six games, with the Boston Celtics and Sacramento Kings as the marquee matchup. Here are my three favorite player prop bets for tonight’s action.

Also, take a look at our other best bets for Tuesday:

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Tuesday’s best NBA Player Props

Odds courtesy of FanDuel

Naji Marshall Over 6.5 Points (-110 FanDuel)

My first player prop of the night features small forward Naji Marshall in a matchup between the San Antonio Spurs and New Orlean Pelicans. Marshall has played well this month, averaging 9.4 points per game and exceeding 6.5 in eight out of nine of them (88.9%). Additionally, Marshall has scored 7 or more points in 64% of his last 25 home games. To further the case for Marshall’s scoring opportunity tonight, the Spurs are a bottom-of-the-barrel team defensively. San Antonio ranks dead last in opponent shooting percentage with 50.4% and in opponent points per game with 122.1. With a high total and poor defense, I expect Marshall to capitalize and go over his projected point total of 6.5.

Marcus Smart Over 1.5 Three Pointers Made (-132 FanDuel)

Another player prop I like is found in today’s top game between the 2-seeded Celtics in the East and the 3-seeded Kings from the West. It is no surprise that this contest has the highest listed point total of the day at 238.5. The Kings struggle defensively, allowing 118.3 points per game (28th) and 49.3% shooting (29th). Additionally, Sacramento surrenders an average of 12.5 three-pointers per game at a 37.3% (26th) clip. Given this information, I am expecting the Celtics to take advantage of the three-pointer tonight, specifically Marcus Smart. Smart has hit two or more threes in eight of his last ten games (80%). Also, this season, Smart has attempted 1.2 more threes per game on the road compared to home. Furthermore, the Kings have allowed the seventh most three-pointers in the league to the point guard position. Assuming Smart continues to shoot at his past road volume from three, then I expect him to hit two or more threes.

Marcus Morris Under 1.5 Three Pointers Made (-142 FanDuel)

My final player prop of the night will be capped off by a showdown between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Los Angeles Clippers. This bet is based primarily on Marcus Morris’ lack of three-point shooting. The Thunder are an average team at defending the three, ranking 15th in three-point percentage allowed at 36.0%. Additionally, Oklahoma City ranks 14th in three-pointers allowed to the forward position. As for Morris, he has hit two or more threes in just one of his last ten games (10%). Additionally, in the month of March, Morris is shooting just 2.3 threes per game, which is a drop off from his season average of 4.8. I will be relying on Morris’ decrease in production as of late and taking the under on his three-pointers prop.

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