NCAA Tournament Elite 8 Preview: Michigan Wolverines vs. UCLA Bruins

Mar 30, 2021 - 1:07 PM

The Michigan Wolverines were easily the most doubted 1-seed entering the 2021 NCAA Tournament. All the Wolverines have done since is silence the haters.

Michigan is a game away from the Final Four despite losing second-leading scorer Isaiah Livers to injury. Michigan put together its most impressive performance in the tournament on Sunday, dominating Florida State from the opening tip.

To get to the Final Four, Michigan will have to get through a UCLA team that’s also proved us wrong. The Bruins barely made the tournament field and now has a chance to go from First Four to Final Four.

Will Mick Cronin’s team keep the magic alive as sizable underdogs? Or will Juwan Howard’s Wolverines continue to be one of the bettor’s favorite teams? Here’s a breakdown of the East Regional Final.

Odds courtesy of BettingPros Consensus

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(11) UCLA Bruins vs. (1) Michigan Wolverines

	SPREAD	O/U	MONEY
UCLA UCLA 21-9	+6.5 -106	o135.5 -108	+230
MICH MICHIGAN 23-4	-6.5 -113	u135.5 -113	-295

Betting Preview: UCLA Bruins (18-9 SU, 13-14 ATS, 16-11 O/U) 

The Bruins were a better team than they showed all regular season. And they’ve figured things out at the most opportune time.

I thought Sunday would be UCLA’s final game in its impressive tournament run. But once again, the Bruins proved me wrong, taking down Alabama in a thrilling overtime classic.

The Bruins have been a machine offensively, averaging 78.5 points in four tournament games. Guard Johnny Juzang has been the primary catalyst and is averaging 20 points per game in the tournament. However, Juzang put up his worst outing of the tournament in his last game against Alabama. But UCLA’s scoring balance allows it to overcome bad games from its best player. The Bruins have five players scoring in double figures and have made 37.2% of their 3-point shots.

Where UCLA is susceptible is on the defensive end, which is contrary to the typical identity of a Cronin-coached team. While the Bruins rank 61st in effective defensive efficiency, per Torvik, they allow teams to shoot nearly 34% from deep and almost 50% from inside the arc.

While Cronin is a phenomenal coach, the Bruins haven’t undergone a defensive renaissance overnight. In fact, UCLA may be benefitting from some shooting luck. UCLA’s opponents in the tournament have shot 20-for-82 (24.4%) from the 3-point range. That good fortune came into play in the Sweet 16, when Alabama shot 7-of-28 from deep.

Meanwhile, UCLA hasn’t been great defending inside the arc. Throw out the Round of 32 game against a miserable Abilene Christian team, and opponents have gone 68-of-122 (55.7%) from the interior.

While UCLA can score with anyone, their defensive fortunes could change against a highly efficient Michigan offense.

Betting Preview: Michigan Wolverines (20-4 SU, 17-7 ATS, 9-15 O/U) 

Isaiah Livers isn’t chopped liver (I had to), but Michigan has fared just fine without him. Michigan has put up at least 76 points in their three tournament games and recently smothered Florida State defensively.

The Wolverines don’t have many flaws. Offensively, they run through 7-foot-1 freshman Hunter Dickinson. His presence down low makes Michigan extremely hard to defend. Averaging 14.2 points, Dickinson is a load to defend one-on-one. But doubling him leaves opponents exposed to a potential barrage from 3-point land. The Wolverines are among the best 3-point shooting teams in the nation and have shot 38.3% from deep.

But what makes Michigan truly special is its defensive prowess. The Wolverines make you earn your points inside, as teams make just 42.6% of their interior shots. They also smother the 3-point line and foul on only 24.7% of their defensive possessions. The only thing Michigan doesn’t do well defensively is force turnovers.

Where Livers’ absence has been most felt for Michigan is beyond the arc. In four games without Livers, Michigan is only shooting 34.6% from deep.

Against the Spread Pick

I’m fading the Bruins again. Alabama’s reliance on the 3-point shot made it susceptible for a clunker if it had an off-shooting night. That’s exactly what happened against UCLA.

Michigan is an entirely different animal. The Bruins don’t have anyone who can match up with Dickinson. And while the Wolverines are an excellent 3-point shooting team, they don’t rely on it nearly as much as Alabama. Michigan is a tremendous defensive team, and its defense hasn’t missed a beat without Livers.

Maybe Mick Cronin fools me again. But Michigan is the far superior team.

The pick: Michigan -6.5

Over/Under Pick 

While I feel much stronger about the spread, I’d lean under in this one. Both teams play at a slow pace, and I expect Michigan to keep UCLA’s explosive offense at bay.

The pick: Lean under 136

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