NCAA Tournament Elite 8 Game Preview: USC Trojans vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs

Mar 30, 2021 - 12:55 PM

Dare I say this has been one of the best NCAA Tournaments in recent memory? The Sweet 16 delivered some great games and surprising results just as the opening weekend did before it. After the dust settled, we were left with a quartet of must-see regional finals. The West Region Final is fittingly a battle of west coast schools as the top overall seed Gonzaga Bulldogs take on the 6-seed USC Trojans. 

This betting preview has all kinds of information to get you set for the NCAA Tournament Elite 8 matchup between USC and Gonzaga. Read on for the betting odds and trends, analysis of both teams, and a game prediction. 

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

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USC vs. Gonzaga Elite 8 Game Info

USC Trojans (25-7, 15-5 Pac-12) vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs (29-0, 15-0 West Coast)

	SPREAD	O/U	MONEY
USC USC 25-7	+8.5 -110	o153 -109	+285
GONZ GONZAGA 29-0	-8.5 -108	u153 -110	-385

View team trends and compare odds from all major sportsbooks for USC vs. Gonzaga >>

Overview

USC came to play in their Sweet 16 matchup against Pac-12 foe Oregon, much like the Trojans have throughout the NCAA Tournament. The betting market moved in favor of the Trojans prior to that game, taking an opening line of Oregon -1 and flipping it to USC -2 long before tip-off. Yet even their 82-68 beatdown of the Ducks, which followed up an 85-51 thrashing of Kansas in the Second Round, couldn’t keep USC from being large underdogs against top seed Gonzaga. For as talented as the Trojans are, they’ll have all they can do to slow down the offensive machine that is the Zags.

PUT HIM ON A POSTER!@evan_mobley7 | #MarchMadness pic.twitter.com/9fcEF8zbEC

— USC Men's Basketball (@USC_Hoops) March 29, 2021

If USC’s win over Oregon proved anything, it’s that the Trojans themselves are far from a one-trick pony. Top NBA prospect Evan Mobley had a modest stat line (by his standards) at best with 10 points, 8 rebounds, and 6 assists. While he did knock on the door to triple-double land, Mobley was far from USC’s leading scorer in the Sweet 16. Instead, it was the backcourt duo of Isaiah White and Tahj Eaddy who dictated things for Andy Enfield’s Trojans. White piled up 22 points and 5 rebounds while Eaddy was just behind with 20. Isaiah Mobley rounded out the quartet of USC players in double figures with his 13 points to go along with 6 rebounds.

Much like USC, Gonzaga took care of their Sweet 16 opponent in a relatively easy fashion. Many doubted as to whether the Bulldogs could cover the large 13-point spread that the oddsmakers set, but Mark Few’s team was up to the task. And 83-65 win saw Gonzaga lead by ten at halftime and never look back. The performance reaffirmed the belief for many that this team is a notch above the rest of the competition this season. Now, the Zags will look to get one step closer to the first national championship in school history with a win on Tuesday to reach the Final Four.

Making it look 𝓮𝓪𝓼𝔂@JalenSuggs2020 pic.twitter.com/hw8izwubi4

— Gonzaga Basketball (@ZagMBB) March 28, 2021

Gonzaga’s win over Creighton followed the same team-first approach that we have seen them implement all season. Drew Timme led the way with 22 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 assists. Guard Andrew Nembhard got in on the act with 17 points and 8 dimes, while Joel Ayayi (13 points) and Corey Kispert (12) rounded out the four Bulldogs in double figures. As in USC’s case with Mobely, Gonzaga was able to win going away despite both Kispert and Jalen Suggs not being dominant on the scoreboard. And much like Mobley, Suggs found ways to impact the game beyond just his 9 points, finishing with 6 assists and 5 rebounds.

Betting Trends

• USC 2020 Betting Trends: 19-13 ATS; 17-14-1 to the Over
• Gonzaga 2020-21 Betting Trends: 15-12-2 ATS; 15-14 to the Over
• USC is 7-0 ATS in their last seven NCAA Tournament games. 
• USC is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog.
• Gonzaga is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a neutral site favorite.
• Gonzaga is 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an outright victory.
• The over is 3-0-1 in USC’s last four games following an outright win.
• The over is 3-1-1 in USC’s last five games.
• Five of Gonzaga’s last six games following an ATS win have gone over the total.
• The over is 12-4 in Gonzaga’s last 16 neutral site games.

Bottom Line

I have to say, I believe we are in for a doozy of a basketball game in this Elite 8 matchup. Gonzaga has been dominant all year. Look no further than their undefeated record and blowout NCAA Tournament wins thus far for proof. While the Bulldogs are the team to beat, USC is a team that I believe has the talent and coaching necessary to put up a fight. 

There are several intriguing in-game aspects to watch for on Tuesday night. One is the incredible matchup between Gonzaga’s top adjusted offense and USC’s  No. 4 adjusted defense per the KenPom ratings. Another clash in statistics between the teams can be found in their drastically different adjusted tempos. While Gonzaga has no issue with pushing the pace and trading buckets, USC can hardly be described as a “fast” team. Whether Gonzaga’s 6th fastest pace of play or USC’s 234th win out could go a long way in determining not only the winner of the game but how close the final score is as well.

Based on both USC and the Pac-12 Conference’s overall body of work throughout this NCAA Tournament, I’m siding with the underdog Trojans ATS in this Elite 8 matchup. The “Conference of Champions” was drastically underrated all season long and there’s really no disputing that. Three of the five Pac-12 teams to make the March Madness field have made it to the Elite 8. Furthermore, USC may have the best shot of any of them to upset Gonzaga outright. 

The Bulldogs’ Achilles’ Heel is defending the rim and interior of the paint. The Trojans have arguably the best duo to exploit this weakness in brothers Evan and Isaiah Mobley. Expect Andy Enfield to have a defensive gameplan ready to bog down Gonzaga’s tempo and turn this into a half-court game. If USC is successful in doing so, I love their chances of staying inside the number.

Pick: USC +9 and Under 153 (-110 respectively at BetMGM)

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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeSports.

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