Upset Alert: Teams to Fade from East Region (2022 March Madness)

Mar 16, 2022 - 2:33 PM

March Madness is finally upon us as the NCAA Tournament begins Thursday. If you are reading this, you are probably in an office, family, or betting pool for this year’s festivities and are looking to avoid some of the early-exit bracket busters.

Below, I walk through two teams to fade in the East region to help you gain an edge in your pool.

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Baylor (1 seed)

Baylor will undoubtedly be a popular team to make the Elite Eight or further. However, I believe they could lose in the first weekend or the Sweet Sixteen at the latest. The defending champions are simply not the same team as last year as they only returned one starter and lost their main two guys who fueled their engine last March.

My main reason for fading Baylor in this tournament is their weakness when playing away from home. Baylor is just 3-3 straight up and 2-4 against the spread in their last six games played away or at a neutral site.

Baylor is also just 8-9 against the spread all season when playing in away or neutral site games. They are failing to meet expectations, and they have two potential tough matchups after the first round.

Assuming Baylor wins the first round against 15-seed Norfolk State, they will face the winner of North Carolina/Marquette. Those are two tough outs as both teams are freakishly long, athletic, and play a physical brand of defense.

Even if Baylor gets past that round, they likely will have to fave UCLA in the Sweet Sixteen, a matchup I have them losing in. It’s a terrible draw for Baylor as UCLA returns four of their five starters from last year’s Final Four team.

Kentucky (2 seed)

I am fading both of the top two seeds from this region as I think Kentucky will also be on upset watch in the second round or the Sweet Sixteen. Assuming Kentucky beats St. Peter’s in the opening round, they will face the winner of Murray State/San Francisco.

This year, those two schools have adamant basketball teams that would pose as a tough out either way. Murray State is an impeccable 30-2 and is the hottest team in the tournament, not losing a game since their Dec. 22 matchup against 2-seed Auburn.

On the other hand, San Francisco is one of the most criminally underrated teams in the country. Known for their incredible defense, San Francisco ranks 19th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency and could give Kentucky fits if they beat Murray State.

I think Kentucky could get bounced out of the tournament in the first weekend, but even if they survive, they will meet another tough battle in the Sweet Sixteen if they match up against Purdue.

Purdue has one of the best offenses in the country, spearheaded by one of the nation’s top players in Jaden Ivey. Fans know the importance of having the best player on the court in this tournament, and Purdue would arguably have that in this matchup.

Some will say that Kentucky’s big man, Oscar Tshiebwe, would be the best player on the court in a potential Purdue/Kentucky showdown. However, I am not as convinced, and Purdue’s seven-foot-four Center, Zach Edey, could make his life difficult.

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