Matthew Freedman’s Favorite First Four March Madness Player Props (3/15)

Mar 15, 2022 - 7:29 PM

The people have spoken, and I am a benevolent Director of Content, so I will once again personally provide March Madness player prop content to the masses.

I believe in honesty, so I’ll be blatantly transparent: I know almost nothing about college basketball. I don’t watch it at all.

But I’m a degenerate (in a good way), and I love betting player props.

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In 2019, I did a series of articles: Each day, I highlighted my favorite player prop on the board.

When March Madness came around that year, I thought, “Hey, I don’t know anything about college basketball — but that’s not gonna stop me from being the best degenerate I can be,” and so I quickly pulled together what can be described as only the crudest set of player projections ever finagled into a spreadsheet.

I’m talking some real “2 + 2 = 4.1” kind of stuff.

But even though my projection model was rudimentary at best, I focused a lot on forecasting player minutes — and that secret sauce provided some delicious prop-betting zest. In 2019, I went 125-69-12 (+39.8 units) on March Madness player props.

Due to the pandemic, we lost the 2020 tournament, but I once again did projections last year — again, without knowing anything about the players or the teams — and the projections continued to produce desirable results. In 2021, I went 105-64-1 (+33.8 units) on March Madness player props.

I’m a man of few skills, but apparently one of those skills is forecasting player production for a sport I don’t watch.

Given my talent, a multitude of people — at least five, perhaps upwards of eight — have begged me to do player projections and post picks once again this year, so I’m doing it.

Remember: I know little/nothing about college basketball. My projections might not take into account new injuries, particular player-vs.-player matchups, etc. These are just the mathematical suppositions of a degenerate who sucks at math.

Best of luck to all of us this March Madness.

Based on the offering in our NCAA basketball player props page as of writing (12:30 p.m. ET), here are some props I like for today’s two play-in games. For all bets with negative odds, I wager to win a unit. For all bets with positive odds, I wager a unit.

NOTE: To see my March Madness prop plays as quickly as possible, check out the FREE BettingPros Discord, where I post my plays in the March Madness channel before submitting my article.

Check out all of our 2022 March Madness Coverage >>

Texas A&M-CC vs. Texas Southern

  • Date: Tuesday, Mar. 15, 2022
  • Start Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
  • Location: University of Dayton Arena — Dayton, OH
  • Coverage: truTV

Texas A&M-CC vs. Texas Southern Player Projections

Team Player PTS RBS ASTS PTS + RBS PTS + ASTS PTS, RBS + ASTS
AMCC Isaac Mushila 13.1 11.3 1.2 24.4 14.3 25.6
AMCC Trey Tennyson 10 1.6 1.2 11.6 11.2 12.8
AMCC Terrion Murdix 9.4 5.1 3.6 14.5 13 18.1
AMCC Simeon Fryer 7.1 3.4 1 10.5 8.1 11.5
AMCC De’Lazarus Keys 6.9 6.5 0.9 13.4 7.7 14.3
AMCC Jalen Jackson 5.7 2.5 2.7 8.2 8.4 10.9
AMCC Myles Smith 5.8 2 1.4 7.8 7.2 9.2
AMCC San Antonio Brinson 4.1 2.5 0.7 6.6 4.8 7.3
AMCC Stephen Faramade 2.5 2 0.2 4.5 2.6 4.7
AMCC Tyrese Nickelson 0.6 0.4 0.1 1 0.7 1.1
AMCC Jordan Roberts 0.4 0.1 0 0.5 0.5 0.6
AMCC Ethan White 0.3 0.2 0 0.5 0.4 0.5
TSU Joirdon Karl Nicholas 9.7 6.5 1.1 16.2 10.8 17.3
TSU John Walker 9.1 4.1 1 13.1 10.1 14.1
TSU PJ Henry 9.4 3.3 1.6 12.7 11 14.3
TSU Bryson Etienne 11.7 4.1 2.2 15.7 13.9 18
TSU Brison Gresham 7.6 7.4 0.4 15 8 15.4
TSU Justin Hopkins 2.6 0.9 0.5 3.5 3 3.9
TSU John Jones 3.8 0.6 0.3 4.4 4.2 4.8
TSU A.J. Lawson 8.6 4.7 1.8 13.3 10.4 15.1
TSU Jordan Gilliam 2.4 1.6 1.1 3.9 3.5 5.1
TSU Yahuza Rasas 3.5 3.8 0.4 7.3 3.9 7.8
TSU Davon Barnes 1.3 0.9 0.2 2.2 1.5 2.4

 

Texas A&M-CC Player Props

  • Simeon Fryer Under 8.5 Points (+100, FanDuel) – Projection: 7.1
  • Terrion Murdix Under 11.5 Points (-108, FanDuel) – Projection: 9.4
  • Isaac Mushila Over 11.5 Points (-115, FanDuel) – Projection: 13.1
  • De’Lazarus Keys Under 8.5 Points (-122, FanDuel) – Projection: 6.9
  • Simeon Fryer Under 3.5 Rebounds (+126, FanDuel) – Projection: 3.4
  • Isaac Mushila Over 9.5 Rebounds (-146, FanDuel) – Projection: 11.3

Texas Southern Player Props

  • Brison Gresham Under 8.5 Points (-120, FanDuel) – Projection: 7.6
  • Joirdon Karl Nicholas Over 8.5 Points (-106, FanDuel) – Projection: 9.7
  • Joirdon Karl Nicholas Over 6.5 Points (+114, FanDuel) – Projection: 6.5
  • Bryson Etienne Over 3.5 Rebounds (-114, FanDuel) – Projection: 4.1

For more analysis on this game, check out our Texas A&M-CC vs. Texas Southern breakdown.

Indiana vs. Wyoming

  • Date: Tuesday, March 15, 2022
  • Start Time: 9:10 p.m. ET
  • Location: University of Dayton Arena — Dayton, OH
  • Coverage: truTV

Indiana vs. Wyoming Player Projections

Team Player PTS RBS ASTS PTS + RBS PTS + ASTS
PTS, RBS + ASTS
IND Trayce Jackson-Davis 19.4 9.5 2 28.9 21.4 30.9
IND Xavier Johnson 13.2 4.4 5.2 17.7 18.4 22.9
IND Race Thompson 10 7.2 1.3 17.2 11.3 18.4
IND Miller Kopp 6.8 3 1.1 9.8 7.9 10.9
IND Parker Stewart 4.2 1.5 0.6 5.7 4.8 6.3
IND Jordan Geronimo 3 2.8 0.2 5.8 3.1 5.9
IND Tamar Bates 0.2 0.1 0 0.3 0.3 0.4
IND Rob Phinisee 4.8 2.3 1.8 7.2 6.6 8.9
IND Trey Galloway 5.9 1.9 1.9 7.8 7.9 9.8
IND Michael Durr 0.6 0.5 0.2 1.1 0.8 1.2
WYO Graham Ike 18.1 10.5 1.2 28.7 19.4 29.9
WYO Hunter Maldonado 16.1 6.1 5.7 22.2 21.8 27.9
WYO Drake Jeffries 9.6 5.8 0.7 15.4 10.4 16.1
WYO Jeremiah Oden 6.6 4.6 0.4 11.1 6.9 11.5
WYO Xavier DuSell 6.3 2.3 0.9 8.6 7.2 9.5
WYO Brendan Wenzel 3.8 2.4 0.4 6.2 4.2 6.6
WYO Hunter Thompson 1.2 0.8 0.1 2.1 1.4 2.2
WYO Noah Reynolds 2.4 1 0.6 3.5 3.1 4.1

 

Indiana Player Props

  • Trayce Jackson-Davis Over 18.5 Points (-105, PointsBet) – Projection: 19.4
  • Xavier Johnson Under 15.5 Points (-120, PointsBet) – Projection: 13.2
  • Race Thompson Under 11.5 Points (-102, FanDuel) – Projection: 10.0
  • Trayce Jackson-Davis Over 7.5 Rebounds (-148, FanDuel) – Projection: 9.5
  • Xavier Johnson Over 4.5 Rebounds (+130, PointsBet) – Projection: 4.4

Wyoming Player Props

  • Drake Jeffries Over 8.5 Points (-125, FanDuel) – Projection: 9.6
  • Hunter Maldonado Under 17.5 Points (-104, FanDuel) – Projection: 16.1
  • Graham Ike Under 18.5 Points (+100, FanDuel) – Projection: 18.1
  • Hunter Maldonado Over 5.5 Rebounds (-139, PointsBet) – Projection: 6.1

For more analysis on this game, check out our Indiana vs. Wyoming breakdown.

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