Matthew Freedman’s Favorite First Four March Madness Player Props (3/16)

Mar 16, 2022 - 3:37 PM

The people have spoken, and I am a benevolent Director of Content, so I will once again personally provide March Madness player prop content to the masses.

I believe in honesty, so I’ll be blatantly transparent: I know almost nothing about college basketball. I don’t watch it at all.

But I’m a degenerate (in a good way), and I love betting player props.

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In 2019, I did a series of articles: Each day, I highlighted my favorite player prop on the board.

When March Madness came around that year, I thought, “Hey, I don’t know anything about college basketball — but that’s not gonna stop me from being the best degenerate I can be,” and so I quickly pulled together what can be described as only the crudest set of player projections ever finagled into a spreadsheet.

I’m talking some real “2 + 2 = 4.1” kind of stuff.

But even though my projection model was rudimentary at best, I focused a lot on forecasting player minutes — and that secret sauce provided some delicious prop-betting zest. In 2019, I went 125-69-12 (+39.8 units) on March Madness player props.

Due to the pandemic, we lost the 2020 tournament, but I once again did projections last year — again, without knowing anything about the players or the teams — and the projections continued to produce desirable results. In 2021, I went 105-64-1 (+33.8 units) on March Madness player props.

I’m a man of few skills, but apparently one of those skills is forecasting player production for a sport I don’t watch.

Given my talent, a multitude of people — at least five, perhaps upwards of eight — have begged me to do player projections and post picks once again this year, so I’m doing it.

Remember: I know little/nothing about college basketball. My projections might not take into account new injuries, particular player-vs.-player matchups, etc. These are just the mathematical suppositions of a degenerate who sucks at math.

Yesterday, I went 9-10 (-2.4 units) on my prop picks. Let’s hope I do better today.

Here are some props I like for today’s two play-in games (as of 8:30 a.m. ET). For all bets with negative odds, I wager to win a unit. For all bets with positive odds, I wager a unit.

NOTE: To see my March Madness prop plays as quickly as possible, check out the FREE BettingPros Discord, where I post my plays in the March Madness channel before submitting my article.

Check out all of our 2022 March Madness Coverage >>

Bryant vs. Wright State

  • Date: Wednesday, Mar. 16, 2022
  • Start Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
  • Location: University of Dayton Arena — Dayton, OH
  • Coverage: truTV

Bryant vs. Wright State Player Projections

Bryant Player Props

Wright State Player Props

For more analysis on this game, check out our Bryant vs. Wright State breakdown.

Notre Dame vs. Rutgers

  • Date: Wednesday, March 16, 2022
  • Start Time: 9:10 p.m. ET
  • Location: University of Dayton Arena — Dayton, OH
  • Coverage: truTV

Notre Dame vs. Rutgers Player Projections

Notre Dame Player Props

Rutgers Player Props

For more analysis on this game, check out our Notre Dame vs. Rutgers breakdown.

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