Matthew Freedman’s Favorite First Four March Madness Player Props (3/16)

Mar 16, 2022 - 3:37 PM

The people have spoken, and I am a benevolent Director of Content, so I will once again personally provide March Madness player prop content to the masses.

I believe in honesty, so I’ll be blatantly transparent: I know almost nothing about college basketball. I don’t watch it at all.

But I’m a degenerate (in a good way), and I love betting player props.

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In 2019, I did a series of articles: Each day, I highlighted my favorite player prop on the board.

When March Madness came around that year, I thought, “Hey, I don’t know anything about college basketball — but that’s not gonna stop me from being the best degenerate I can be,” and so I quickly pulled together what can be described as only the crudest set of player projections ever finagled into a spreadsheet.

I’m talking some real “2 + 2 = 4.1” kind of stuff.

But even though my projection model was rudimentary at best, I focused a lot on forecasting player minutes — and that secret sauce provided some delicious prop-betting zest. In 2019, I went 125-69-12 (+39.8 units) on March Madness player props.

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Enter Here: https://t.co/lWsFAheSTi pic.twitter.com/Tmmyo5wH3G

— BettingPros (@BettingPros) March 14, 2022

Due to the pandemic, we lost the 2020 tournament, but I once again did projections last year — again, without knowing anything about the players or the teams — and the projections continued to produce desirable results. In 2021, I went 105-64-1 (+33.8 units) on March Madness player props.

I’m a man of few skills, but apparently one of those skills is forecasting player production for a sport I don’t watch.

Given my talent, a multitude of people — at least five, perhaps upwards of eight — have begged me to do player projections and post picks once again this year, so I’m doing it.

Remember: I know little/nothing about college basketball. My projections might not take into account new injuries, particular player-vs.-player matchups, etc. These are just the mathematical suppositions of a degenerate who sucks at math.

Yesterday, I went 9-10 (-2.4 units) on my prop picks. Let’s hope I do better today.

Here are some props I like for today’s two play-in games (as of 8:30 a.m. ET). For all bets with negative odds, I wager to win a unit. For all bets with positive odds, I wager a unit.

NOTE: To see my March Madness prop plays as quickly as possible, check out the FREE BettingPros Discord, where I post my plays in the March Madness channel before submitting my article.

Check out all of our 2022 March Madness Coverage >>