Matthew Freedman’s Favorite First Four March Madness Player Props (3/16)
Mar 16, 2022 - 3:37 PMThe people have spoken, and I am a benevolent Director of Content, so I will once again personally provide March Madness player prop content to the masses.
I believe in honesty, so I’ll be blatantly transparent: I know almost nothing about college basketball. I don’t watch it at all.
But I’m a degenerate (in a good way), and I love betting player props.
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In 2019, I did a series of articles: Each day, I highlighted my favorite player prop on the board.
When March Madness came around that year, I thought, “Hey, I don’t know anything about college basketball — but that’s not gonna stop me from being the best degenerate I can be,” and so I quickly pulled together what can be described as only the crudest set of player projections ever finagled into a spreadsheet.
I’m talking some real “2 + 2 = 4.1” kind of stuff.
But even though my projection model was rudimentary at best, I focused a lot on forecasting player minutes — and that secret sauce provided some delicious prop-betting zest. In 2019, I went 125-69-12 (+39.8 units) on March Madness player props.
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Due to the pandemic, we lost the 2020 tournament, but I once again did projections last year — again, without knowing anything about the players or the teams — and the projections continued to produce desirable results. In 2021, I went 105-64-1 (+33.8 units) on March Madness player props.
I’m a man of few skills, but apparently one of those skills is forecasting player production for a sport I don’t watch.
Given my talent, a multitude of people — at least five, perhaps upwards of eight — have begged me to do player projections and post picks once again this year, so I’m doing it.
Remember: I know little/nothing about college basketball. My projections might not take into account new injuries, particular player-vs.-player matchups, etc. These are just the mathematical suppositions of a degenerate who sucks at math.
Yesterday, I went 9-10 (-2.4 units) on my prop picks. Let’s hope I do better today.
Here are some props I like for today’s two play-in games (as of 8:30 a.m. ET). For all bets with negative odds, I wager to win a unit. For all bets with positive odds, I wager a unit.
NOTE: To see my March Madness prop plays as quickly as possible, check out the FREE BettingPros Discord, where I post my plays in the March Madness channel before submitting my article.
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Bryant vs. Wright State
- Date: Wednesday, Mar. 16, 2022
- Start Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Location: University of Dayton Arena — Dayton, OH
- Coverage: truTV
Bryant vs. Wright State Player Projections
Bryant Player Props
- Charles Pride Under 19.5 Points (-115, DraftKings)
- Peter Kiss Over 5.5 Rebounds (-125, FanDuel)
Wright State Player Props
- Tanner Holden Over 19.5 Points (-110, DraftKings)
For more analysis on this game, check out our Bryant vs. Wright State breakdown.
Notre Dame vs. Rutgers
- Date: Wednesday, March 16, 2022
- Start Time: 9:10 p.m. ET
- Location: University of Dayton Arena — Dayton, OH
- Coverage: truTV
Notre Dame vs. Rutgers Player Projections
Notre Dame Player Props
- Dane Goodwin Over 11.5 Points (-111, FanDuel)
Rutgers Player Props
- Geo Baker Under 14.5 Points (-120, FanDuel)
For more analysis on this game, check out our Notre Dame vs. Rutgers breakdown.
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