Purdue Basketball: Hofstra Preview

Dec 7, 2022 - 10:58 PM

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Hofstra Pride (6-3) vs #4 Purdue Boilermakers (8-0, 1-0 Big10)

December 7, 2022 - 7 PM

West Lafayette, Indiana - Mackey Arena

TV: Big10+ (for those of you who partake)

Purdue Roster

Hofstra Roster

Purdue on Offense

Hofstra’s starting center is 6’8, 215. That’s not gonna stop Zach Edey nor some of our larger wingers from scoring in the paint. They aren’t good at defending the three ball; opponents are shooting 35.22% and kind of getting their way in terms of off-the-ball movement around the arc. Good news for Matt Painter’s well-coached squad, Purdue excels in that area.

The thing is, I can’t even see much of a need for it for the Boilermakers. Sure, Zach Edey is great at drawing double teams and dishing the ball to an open shooter, but against an undersized Hofstra team, I see Edey getting easy buckets all night. He may not even need to pull the jump hook out of his bag of tricks. He should be able to use his much-improved footwork against dudes over half a foot shorter to create easy layups.

Purdue on Defense

Hofstra plays mid-tempo ball and display a somewhat efficient offense (62 efficiency per KenPom) Aaron Estrada is their star player, 6’3” senior guard averaging 21.7 points, 4 assists, and shooting 43% from three-point land. Major problem: Estrada was ruled out tonight.

Purdue has to be big and physical down low and ensure they close out whatever modicum of an open shot Hofstra creates. With the mismatches at the top of the key to the wing to down low, this should be a classic case of taking care of the little things so the big things take care of themselves for Painter’s defense.

X-Factor - Offensive Rebounding

Hofstra is one the worst rebounding teams in the nation. They’re ranked 345th out of 352 at 6.44 offensive RPG...as an entire, whole, honest-to-God team.

They give up offensive rebounds on 31% of shots. Purdue’s roster is full of scrappy and physical rebounders, and don’t forget about Edey (how could you?) and the fact that he’s leading the Big 10 with a ridiculous 12.8 rebounds per game. He gobbled up eight offensive rebounds against Minnesota on Sunday, establishing dominance over two fellow seven-footers. Pardon the deep south verbiage coming from my fingers, but Hofstra ain’t got no dadgum seven-footers. I honestly doubt Edey will see the minutes he’s been needed to play in this one. Between he and Furst and Morton, if Purdue can’t overpower this Hofstra Pride outfit that focuses on medium-paced small ball offensively, that’s the literal only scenario in which I see the Boilermakers struggling.

Predictions

Garrett

Purdue - 86

Hofstra - 59

I can’t imagine Purdue not taking advantage of the size mismatches here; the Boilermakers simply have bigger wingers who are just faster while being bigger, a pesky defensive point guard in Braden Smith, and a mountain of a man down low in Zach Edey. This one might be over before it starts. The Boilermakers should be able to dominate the boards on both ends, run their offense at whatever pace they so choose, and tally up some easy points with mismatches close to the paint creating the potential for open shots on the perimeter.

KenPom

Purdue - 82

Hofstra - 64

95% Confidence - KenPom sees this game getting ugly, early. It’s a shame Estrada is out, because he’s a fun player. It wouldn’t change the outcome, but it may have tightened up the score a bit.