2023 NCAA Tourney Bracketology 1.0

Jan 16, 2023 - 12:08 PM

Welcome to my first bracketology article this season. College hoops are in full swing, and most teams are starting to show their true colors as we gain more and more data daily. I will be here to update my projected bracket twice this month, and then I’ll provide more consistent updates in February and March as the tournament approaches.

Now, you may wonder what the point of bracketology is, so let me tell you. Participating in this practice is a great way to identify better value for teams’ betting futures. You may be high on a team, but an understanding of their seeding and potential opponents is critical, and I’m here in an attempt to give you the most accurate projections to determine just that.

2023 NCAA Tourney Bracketology 1.0

Bracketology also gives you an early introduction to the potential Cinderellas of the field, allowing you to be a step ahead of everyone else, and saving you valuable research time once the bracket is released.

Before I get started, let me give you the rundown. For now, I’ll simply provide my projected seeding for the field of 68. As we get closer to March Madness, I will organize teams by their region, providing my projected bracket and region breakdown.

Before conference-champion auto-bids start to roll in, I will provide my tournament “locks.” These are teams that have left no doubt that they are tournament-worthy, even though they may not have clinched a bid outright yet. I’ll take a conservative approach here, however, because college basketball is like the Wild West sometimes, and any team’s season can turn on a dime (see: UConn).

Finally, I’m building this bracket based on today’s standings rather than by projecting where it might be in the future. But that’s enough rambling; let’s get to the bracket.

Locks

Houston (17-1)
Alabama (15-2)
Purdue (16-1)
Kansas (16-1)
UCLA (16-2)

As I said, I’m hesitant to guarantee many teams a tournament spot just yet. Connecticut was right there, but after losing four out of their last five games, they fell out of ‘lock’ territory. The teams I’ve listed as locks are simply too far ahead of the field in my mind not to be absolute locks. Even if Alabama, Purdue, or Kansas falls apart, they all have difficult enough strengths of schedule where the losses would not be enough to push them out of the field. As for Houston, I trust their ability to finish the season strong. They’re nasty.

The championship futures I like right now: Arkansas (+5000 on FanDuel), Saint Marys (+6500 on FanDuel), and Ohio State (+9000 on FanDuel). The Razorbacks’ stock is probably at its floor right now after losing four of their last five games. If you remember, last year, Arkansas had a similar stretch, losing five of six games before eventually making an Elite Eight run. I trust Musselman to figure it out, especially if Nick Smith Jr. makes a comeback. The books are simply behind on Saint Mary’s. The Gaels currently rank eighth in KenPom and the NET Rankings despite having the 23rd-ranked championship odds. While their resume is lacking, their odds shouldn’t get any longer than they are right now. Ohio State is inconsistent, but they have loads of talent. If they can put it all together – and they still have plenty of time to do so – they are one dangerous tournament team.

The Seeding

*Play-in games
Bold = Conference Champions

1 Seeds

- Houston
- Purdue
- Alabama
- Kansas

2 Seeds

- UCLA
- Tennessee
- Texas
- Gonzaga

3 Seeds

- Xavier
- Arizona
- Kansas State
- UConn

4 Seeds

- Virginia
- Iowa State
- Arkansas
- Marquette

5 Seeds

- Saint Mary’s
- TCU
- Baylor
- Auburn

6 Seeds

- Florida Atlantic
- Rutgers
- Providence
- Miami (FL)

7 Seeds

- Duke
- San Diego State
- Clemson
- N.C. State

8 Seeds

- Missouri
- Arizona State
- Michigan State
- Illinois

9 Seeds

- Ohio State
- Wisconsin
- North Carolina
- Missouri

10 Seeds

- College of Charleston
- Arizona State
- Pittsburgh
- Oklahoma

11 Seeds

- Creighton
- Indiana
- Maryland
- Boise State*
- Northwestern*

12 Seeds

- Iowa*
- New Mexico*
- Dayton
- Kent State
- Liberty

13 Seeds

- Marshall
- Oral Roberts
- Iona
- Utah Valley

14 Seeds

- Princeton
- Furman
- UC Irvine
- Youngstown State

15 Seeds

- Bradley
- Eastern Washington
- Longwood
- Colgate

16 Seeds

- UMass Lowell
- SIU Edwardsville
- Norfolk State*
- Texas A&M Corpus Christi*
- Southern*
- Fairleigh Dickinson*

First Four Out

Kentucky
West Virginia
Nevada
Utah State

Next Four Out

Memphis
Mississippi State
Penn State
Virginia Tech

Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced sports betting strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.

Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>