College Basketball Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (2/14)

Feb 14, 2023 - 11:17 AM

As we have grown accustomed to in college basketball this season, this weekend provided several upsets. Per ESPN Stats & Info, No. 4 Arizona was the highest-ranked opponent Stanford has beaten since defeating No. 3 UCLA in 2007. However, that was not the most shocking upset, as the following happened less than 24 hours later.

Here are our best bets for Tuesday’s college basketball action.

  • YTD (as of 1/21): 28-17

And here are our other top picks for Tuesday:

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Best College Basketball Bets for Tuesday

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings)

Missouri vs. Auburn O/U

Five ranked teams lost to unranked opponents this weekend, but from an analytics perspective, perhaps no upset was more shocking than Missouri over Tennessee.

Typically, teams that scored at least 1.4 points per possession went on to certain victory, as they had been 1169-4 SU (99.7% winning percentage) since 2008, Per BartTorvik. However, Tennessee became the fifth team to lose in that span after scoring 1.42 points per possession against Missouri. Tennessee is not known for its offense this season, ranking 218th in effective field goal percentage, which speaks to how porous the Missouri defense can sometimes be. However, the fact that the Tigers could score 86 points on the road against a Tennessee defense that ranks first in adjusted defensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage allowed is also a tremendous feat, given that 78 points were the most it allowed before this weekend.

Auburn has struggled with knocking down perimeter shots this year (13th in SEC play with a 28.2% 3-point percentage) but should see some positive regression against a Missouri defense that ranks 259th nationally in defending the perimeter (35.4% 3-point percentage allowed).
Missouri and Auburn are tied as the second-most profitable Over teams (15-10 O/U records) in the SEC, and we expect another high-scoring affair tonight.

Bet: Missouri-Auburn Over 150.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

St. John’s vs DePaul Spread

We are not usually in the habit of backing teams amid six-game losing streaks, as DePaul is. However, the Blue Demons have an excellent opportunity to end that skid at home against one of the worst road teams in the Big East.

DePaul’s losing streak is mainly because it has played elite competition, as three of its four double-digit losses in its losing streak were against teams over .500 in the league (Providence, Marquette, and UConn). Meanwhile, St. John’s is just 1-7 SU and 2-6 in eight road games.

DePaul ranks in the bottom third of the Big East in offensive efficiency and 2-point shooting in league play (47.7%). Still, it takes care of the basketball (its 16.6% turnover rate is the third-best in the Big East), which is essential against the Red Storm’s pressure defense that forces turnovers at a top-three league rate. In addition, St. John’s is the conference’s worst free-throw shooting team (65.2% in league play), which could be the difference between winning and losing in what projects to be a tight game.

DePaul is a blistering 10-1-1 ATS in its last 12 home games against teams with a losing road record, and we expect another Blue Demons cover tonight.

Bet: DePaul +1.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Kansas State vs. Oklahoma ML

There are no gimmes in the Big 12 this year, but facing the under .500 Sooners who are 2-10 in league play is the closest thing to it.

Oklahoma’s 24-point home thrashing of Alabama looks more surprising by the day, considering it is the Sooners’ only win in the last eight games. Lately, Oklahoma head coach Porter Moses has had trouble generating consistent offense from his team outside of shooting guard Grant Sherfield, who ranks 91st nationally in the percentage of shots his team takes. However, since a 30-point outburst against Alabama, Sherfield has scored 55 points over the last four games and is a combined 19-for-50 (38%) from the field in that span.

Kansas State has the perfect foil for Sherfield, as the undersized Markquis Nowell is a pesky on-ball defender with the third-most steals of any active D-1 player. In addition, Kansas State is more balanced offensively than Oklahoma, with three starters averaging double figures and no one player taking more than 25.7% of the team’s shots (Keyontae Johnson ranks 398th in that category).

The Wildcats have covered nine of their last 13 games and are 11-2 ATS when they have equal rest as their opponent. Meanwhile, Oklahoma entered Monday tied for the Big 12’s worst ATS mark at 10-14-1 and is just 3-5-1 ATS against ranked opponents. We expect Kansas State to build on those trends with a big road victory in Norman.

Bet: Kansas State ML (-115 at DraftKings)

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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