College Basketball Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (2/18)

Feb 18, 2023 - 11:54 AM

The last two national champions, the Baylor Bears and Kansas Jayhawks, meet at Phog Allen Fieldhouse tonight to highlight a loaded slate of college basketball games. To bring even more excitement to the day, the D-1 Men’s Basketball Committee is releasing its top 16 seeds (if the season ended today) for the NCAA tournament, as it has done annually since 2017.

Here are our best bets for Saturday’s college basketball action.

• YTD (as of 1/21): 30-24

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Best College Basketball Bets for Saturday

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings)

Villanova/Providence and Oklahoma/Texas ML Parlay

Providence’s -170 and Texas’s -570 moneyline odds in isolation may not be appealing, but when combined as part of a two-leg parlay, they make much more sense for bettors.

Many trends suggest that the Friars and Longhorns will cash this moneyline parlay easily. The two teams are a combined 28-1 at home this season. Providence’s home dominance goes back even further, having won 35 of its last 36 home games, with a 25-19 ATS as home favorites since 2019. In addition, the Friars are 73-31 in games decided by five or fewer points under Ed Cooley since 2013-14, which has us comfortable backing them even if the game is tight late. Finally, Providence faces a Villanova team that is 2-5 on the road in Big East play. The Wildcats have lost their three road games against the teams ahead of them in the league standings by a combined 22 points.

Texas is a balanced offense, with no player being used on possessions more than 24% of the time, per KenPom. Conversely, Oklahoma point guard Grant Sherfield is a one-man show in Norman, ranking 188th nationally in percentage of possessions used. Thus, a Sooners offense that ranks dead last in Big 12 play in adjusted offensive efficiency, turnover percentage (21.1%), and offensive rebounding percentage (25.7%) will not have enough firepower to pull a road upset of a top-six team.

Bet: Providence/Texas ML Parlay (-116 at DraftKings)

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Texas A&M vs. Missouri Spread

Texas A&M is 6-1 in its last seven games, with its only loss since January 25 an excusable one at Bud Walton Arena against Arkansas. And while Missouri has lost just once at home in league play (to the No. 1 team in the country, Alabama), there is something concerning about their last five losses coming by a combined 92 points.

Missouri’s volatility from a margin of victory perspective is centered around an offense that wants to spread the court and attack defensive mismatches one-on-one. Thus, if a team has the personnel to stay in front of the Tigers’ athletic playmakers, they have a great chance of lowering their offensive ceiling. Buzz Williams’ defense did just that in their first meeting this season, packing the paint and forcing the Tigers to shoot more 3-pointers (31) than they were accustomed to. Of course, more of those perimeter shots may fall at home, but it is still concerning that the Aggies won comfortably by 18 points despite committing 18 turnovers.

Texas A&M is the only SEC team covering better than 60% of its games (17-9 ATS record), and we expect it to cover for the 13th time in its 19th game following a win.

Bet: Texas A&M +2.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Creighton vs. St. John’s Spread

Creighton will be a popular play in this matchup, given its 104-76 home rout of St. John’s on January 25. However, the Bluejays had eight days to prepare for that first meeting, and the circumstances are much different this time.

Creighton has one of the most balanced scoring lineups in the country, with four starters (Ryan Nembhard, Arthur Kaluma, Baylor Scheierman, and Ryan Kalkbrenner) each having led the team in scoring at least five times. However, all five starters played 45+ minutes in a double-overtime war against Providence, and the Bluejays only got four combined points in 15 minutes from three players off the bench. Creighton entered the Providence game with the eighth-fewest bench points per game in the country (11.3), and the last team that anyone should want to face off a grueling double-overtime loss is St. John’s, who plays at the third-fastest tempo in the country.

The Bluejays have covered just two of eight games following a loss, and we expect St. John’s to cover tonight in what should be a tight game until the final buzzer.

Bet: St. John’s +7.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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