NCAA Tournament: College Basketball Best Bets for the First Four (2023)

Mar 13, 2023 - 10:31 AM

After hitting on over 56% of our picks in our daily college basketball picks column, we are back to provide insight on the NCAA tournament.
Like always, March Madness kicks off with the First Four games, with two matchups of No. 11 seeds and two of No. 16 seeds playing their way into the 64-team field. These First Four games at UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio, often provide intense drama and serve as the perfect appetizer to the marathon of Round of 64 games we will consume on Thursday and Friday.

Here are our two best bets for the First Four games and leans for the others.

YTD: 49-38-1

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Best College Basketball Bets for the First Four 

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings)

#16 Southeast Missouri State vs. #16 Texas A&M Corpus Christi: O/U 152.5

We often wonder about teams’ nerves when playing in the First Four, as these No. 16 seeds are not accustomed to playing on national television. However, Corpus Christi returns 71.7% of its minutes production (11th-best in D-I) from a team that played in this same game last year, so we especially like its chances of settling into the game quickly.

Southeast Missouri State is the newcomer in this matchup, making just its second-ever NCAA Tournament appearance. However, the Redhawks will likely turn this game into a breakneck pace, as they average 75.1 possessions per game and play at the second-fastest pace among all D-I teams. The Redhawks attack the rim in transition with reckless abandon and led the Ohio Valley Conference in free throw rate per field goal attempts (40.9). Their style of play fits right into Texas A&M Corpus Christi’s weaknesses, as the Islanders ranked ninth in the Southland in free throw rate allowed. In addition, Texas A&M Corpus Christi does not protect the rim well (53.8% 2-point percentage allowed ranked worst among all Southland teams), while Southeast Missouri State shot an OVC-best 54.7% from inside the arc.

Corpus Christi’s guards are lightning-fast and are a nuisance to defend one-on-one. That is a big reason the Islanders ranked as the Southland’s best 3-point shooting team (40.1% in league play) and tops in adjusted offensive efficiency. In addition, if they have the lead late, which oddsmakers project with a four-point spread, they make 80% of their free throws as a team (second in D-I).

We would be even more confident in this wager if Southeast Missouri State guard Aquan Smart is again ruled out. Smart missed the team’s conference championship game with a foot injury, and he is the team’s best perimeter defender, ranking in the top three in the conference in steal percentage. He has had ten days to recover since last playing on March 4, but there is still no word on his return.

The Over is 21-12 in SEMO’s 33 games this season and has cashed in 11 of its 18 games as an underdog. Additionally, the Over is 17-6 when the Islanders are favored, and we expect another shootout to kick off the NCAA Tournament.

Bet: SEMO-Texas A&M CC Over 152.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

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#11 Nevada Wolf Pack vs. #11 Arizona State Sun Devils (-1.5) 

Arizona State is the household name in this matchup hailing from the Pac-12, but would it even be an NCAA Tournament team if not for a half-court buzzer-beater at Arizona or a two-point non-conference win against Creighton when the Bluejays were without center Ryan Kalkbrenner?

All things considered, this feels like a line begging bettors to take Arizona State, as -1.5 points do not seem like a lot to lay to a team that is one of two NCAA Tournament teams (Providence is the other) entering on a three-game losing streak. However, Nevada’s ability to protect the basketball and get to the free-throw line at a high clip are the biggest reasons we expect it to be competitive in this matchup.

Nevada ranks in the top 25 nationally with a 15.2% turnover percentage. In addition, the Wolf Pack rank 22nd in free throw rate, and they knock down their free throws at the sixth-highest rate (79.2%) in the country. Defensively, the Wolf Pack do a great job at clogging the paint and making their opponents shoot over the top, as their 42.2% opposing 3-point attempt rate ranks in the top 40 of all D-I teams.

Nevada has a matchup nightmare with 6-foot-6 point guard Kenan Blackshear. Blackshear is a bully inside that can post up smaller defenders and spearheads a defense that allows 0.93 points per possession with him on the floor, per HoopLens.com. Arizona State’s key number is 65 points, as it is 14-0 when allowing 65 or fewer points this season. However, Nevada ranked fourth among all Mountain West teams with a 72.6 points per game scoring average this season. Thus, we expect a Nevada team that ranks 61st nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency to do enough to cross that 65-point threshold.

Arizona State is a much better team as an underdog (9-5 ATS) than a favorite (6-14 ATS). In addition, Arizona State has lost six times as favorites this season, while Nevada went 4-6 SU as underdogs and nearly beat a Kansas State team in the non-conference that earned a No. 3 seed in the tournament. Therefore, we are taking the Wolf Pack and the points.

Bet: Nevada +1.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

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Other Leans:

FDU +2.5, Pittsburgh-Mississippi State Under 132.5

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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