Iowa State vs. Pittsburgh: 2023 NCAA Tournament Best Bets & Picks

Mar 15, 2023 - 10:16 PM

March Madness is officially here! The 2023 NCAA Tournament Bracket has been announced, and the teams are lining up for the Big Dance. Let’s take a look at the early odds, previews, and predictions for the 2023 NCAA Tournament Round 1 game: Iowa State vs. Pittsburgh.

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2023 March Madness Odds, Preview & Predictions: Iowa State vs. Pittsburgh

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Iowa State 2023 NCAA Tournament Betting Preview

Iowa State has to be one of the most confusing teams to predict this March. Wins over Baylor, Texas and Kansas showed promise, but losses in six of their last eight regular-season games did not. This team is (surprise!) incredibly defensive-focused, with a top-10 KenPom defense. This leads to some teams failing to reach 60 against Iowa State, but the Cyclones’ offense — ranked outside the top 100 — causes them to lose to some teams they should beat.

Outside of the Big 12, the Cyclones performed pretty well. And after a Sweet 16 run last year, there’s hope that T.J. Otzelberger can lead his team to Houston. It feels like Iowa State is poised for another strong tournament run, since this year’s team reminds me so much of last year’s. The Cyclones truly pack the lane, allowing the fewest near-proximity looks in the entire nation. They essentially eliminate transition looks, and they also rebound effectively. For a team to perform well against the Cyclones, their opponent would have to shoot well from beyond the arc and avoid turning the ball over against an Iowa State defense that has a top-five turnover rate.

I may have buried the lede here in failing to mention Caleb Grill exiting this program. His loss caps Iowa State’s ceiling, but as soon as it was announced he was no longer on the team, the Cyclones followed with a double-digit road win against Baylor. Who l knows what will happen with the Cyclones? But if they expect to make a run, they will need to get some luck with opponents shooting poorly from beyond the arc, riding the wave of their interior defense.

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Pittsburgh 2023 NCAA Tournament Betting Preview

Pittsburgh fans have ridden a roller coaster the last couple of weeks, with the Panthers going from potential ACC regular-season champions to an NCAA Tournament bubble team in a blink of an eye. Now the ride has evened out, as Pittsburgh finds itself back in the tournament.

An experienced team, Pittsburgh is an offense-first squad with top-30 adjusted offensive efficiency. Nelly Cummings is a solid senior guard, and Jamarius Burton is an effective all-around player who can play nearly anywhere on the court. Federiko Federiko is a low-usage guy who is incredibly efficient, with one of the highest offensive ratings in the nation. Shooting guard Greg Elliot is an archer from deep. For Pittsburgh, the whole seems to be less than the sum of the parts. On paper, with the talent they have, you’d expect the Panthers to play in some closer games, especially considering their strong perimeter shooting. But Pittsburgh enters March Madness having dropped two of its last three regular-season games (to Notre Dame and Miami) and having lost to Duke in the ACC Tournament.

The Panthers lack of depth, and their sub-100-ranked defense means their floor isn’t exactly high. Tough defenses can outmatch Pittsburgh’s above-average offense, and the Panthers need to step up as a whole if they want to string together some wins.

Iowa State vs. Pittsburgh 2023 NCAA Tournament Predictions

Iowa State enters the NCAA tournament as one of the most elite defensive teams in college basketball, ranking 9th in Kenpom’s defensive efficiency rating against the number 1 ranked schedule against adjusted offensive efficienciy – pretty impressive. The Cyclones not only defend at a high level, but they limit the possessions of their opponents by ranking in the top 10 in rebounds allowed to opponents and top 20 in steals per game. They will be without one of their top perimeter scorers, Caleb Grill, for the remainder of the year, but a tandem of impressive wins against the offensive juggernaut Baylor down the stretch prove that Iowa State can still hang with the best.

On the other hand, Pittsburgh punched their ticket to the round of 64 by narrowly escaping Dayton with a 60-59 win over a similarly defensive-minded Mississippi State squad. The Panthers relied on their strengths, floor spacing and 3 point shooting, to get past the Bulldogs, and I expect to see a lot of the same in this matchup. Iowa State will have their hands full with this Panthers team that plays a short rotation, but always has 5 guys on the floor that are capable of knocking down shots from anywhere. Iowa State is a step up in class from the Mississippi State team that they just knocked off, but if Pittsburgh can take care of the ball the way they did in Dayton, they will definitely be a tough out. I see this game playing out extremely similar to Pitt’s First 4 matchup, so I will be playing the under.