NCAA Tournament Survivor Guide For Round 2 (Saturday)

Mar 17, 2023 - 12:11 PM

For the third consecutive year, a No. 15 seed has defeated a No. 2 seed, which is likely to have many around the country ripping up their brackets. ESPN Stats & Info discussed on Twitter just how impactful Princeton’s win over Arizona was in its Tournament Challenge.

While Arizona’s loss may have already forced you to rip up your bracket, you hopefully planned a path in your NCAA Tournament survivor pools where you were planning to save Arizona for later in the tournament. If you did, it is likely you instead selected other teams that seemingly had different national championship hopes.

First-round losses by Arizona and Virginia breed new opportunities (if you are still in the competition) to use teams one never thought they would use at any stage. Will you dare pick against the Princeton Tigers (remember, the last two No. 15 seeds that beat No. 2 seeds won their next games as well) and Furman Paladins after impressive first-round performances?

Throughout the tournament, one has to make eight picks: two from the First Round (one for each day played), two from the Second Round (one for each day played), and one from the Sweet 16, Elite 8, Final Four, and National Championship.

Starting with this round, we will rank all eight games in order of most confidence to least confidence and provide a short narrative for each.

Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their Round 2 matchups on Saturday (odds courtesy of BettingPros consensus).

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Best Picks In Order of Most-to-Least Confidence

Alabama (-385)

On the one hand, the fact that SEC Player of the Year Brandon Miller did not score in the team’s opening-round game is concerning but becomes less concerning when realizing the team still won by 21 points. There is minimal chance that Miller gets goose-egged again in a rematch of a 2021 Round of 32 game that the Crimson Tide won by 19 points (96-77) over Maryland.

UCLA (-400)

Those growing more concerned about UCLA’s season-ending injury to Jaylen Clark and the shoulder injury to Adem Bona that has kept him out the last two games are running out of options to use the Bruins in survivor pools with confidence. While Northwestern has the experience guards in seniors Boo Buie and Chase Audige to pull an upset, we are backing a UCLA team that ranks as the country’s best team in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency.

Missouri (-295)

Princeton did not see much press in the Ivy League, so Dennis Gates’ team and their frenetic pace will be impossible to prepare for on just one day’s rest. While Princeton held another up-tempo Arizona team to just 55 points (the Wildcats’ only time being held under 60 all season), the Tigers had a masterful plan against the Wildcats, not guarding certain players and daring them to shoot beyond depths at which they were comfortable. Thus, while Princeton chose not to defend Oumar Ballo and Azuloas Tubelis from the foul line out, Missouri center Kobe Brown is a matchup nightmare in comparison, as he has made three 3-pointers in each of the team’s last two wins.

Taking nothing away from Princeton’s upset of Arizona, but the Wildcats were also hampered by injuries to point guard Kerr Kriisa’s shoulder and Ballo’s hand. Thus, this is a four-star play backing a much healthier Missouri team whose unique style of play should have Princeton on its heels.

Houston (-250)

Similar to UCLA’s survivor pool outlook, now may be the time to pull the trigger on Houston if you are worried about Marcus Sasser’s groin injury for the remainder of the tournament. Sasser played just 14 minutes after reaggravating the injury against Northern Kentucky, but the Cougars should still be able to get past an Auburn team that ranks 309th in the country in 3-point shooting (31.5%).

Missouri (-250)

Princeton’s upset of Arizona opened the doors to use Missouri unexpectedly in survivor pools. Princeton did not see much press in the Ivy League, so Dennis Gates’ team and their frenetic pace will be impossible to prepare for on just one day’s rest. While Princeton held another up-tempo Arizona team to just 55 points (the Wildcats’ only time being held under 60 all season), the Tigers had a masterful plan against the Wildcats, not guarding certain players and daring them to shoot beyond depths at which they were comfortable. Thus, while Princeton chose not to defend Oumar Ballo and Azuloas Tubelis from the foul line out, Missouri center Kobe Brown is a matchup nightmare in comparison, as he has made three 3-pointers in each of the team’s last two wins.

Texas (-250)/Kansas (-190)/Duke (-165)

We are lumping these three teams in the last “not confident at all” category and would stay far away from these teams in survivor pools. Texas faces a red-hot Penn State team that looks on a mission ever since getting hot in a surprising Big Ten Tournament finals run. The Nittany Lions are led by Jalen Pickett, one of three players in the last 30 seasons to average 17+ points, 7+ rebounds, and 6+ assists in a season.

An Arkansas victory would continue the trend of the defending national champion losing in the first or second round for the sixth consecutive tournament. In addition, only two of the previous 14 defending champions even reached the Sweet 16, while no defending champion has advanced past the Sweet 16 since Florida in 2007.

Lastly, Duke meets a Tennessee team that has gone just 2-2 since losing point guard Zakai Ziegler to a season-ending ACL injury. And while the Blue Devils own the nation’s fourth-longest active winning streak at ten games, the Volunteers are capable of locking down any opponent and winning on the heels of a defense that ranks second in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency rating.

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