Creighton vs. NC State: 2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections

Mar 17, 2023 - 1:29 PM

March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.

I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.

Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.

• 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
• 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
• 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
• 2023: 89-67, +19.4 units (Through Thursday Round 1)

2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections: Creighton vs. NC State

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Creighton Player Prop Bet Projections

Player	PTs	REBs	ASTs	PTs + REBs	PTs + ASTs	PRAs	3Ps	FTs
Ryan Kalkbrenner	16.6	7.2	1.2	23.7	17.8	24.9	0.2	3.2
Trey Alexander	14.1	4.7	2.4	18.8	16.5	21.2	1.7	3.0
Baylor Scheierman	13.3	9.5	2.9	22.7	16.2	25.7	2.1	1.9
Arthur Kaluma	11.8	6.4	1.4	18.2	13.2	19.6	1.0	2.8
Ryan Nembhard	13.0	4.8	4.7	17.8	17.7	22.5	1.4	2.1
Fredrick King	1.9	1.4	0.1	3.3	1.9	3.3	0.0	0.3
Francisco Farabello	2.8	1.3	0.8	4.1	3.6	4.8	0.6	0.1
Mason Miller	2.3	1.7	0.2	4.0	2.5	4.2	0.5	0.3
Shereef Mitchell	1.0	0.3	0.3	1.3	1.2	1.6	0.1	0.1
Ben Shtolzberg	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Zander Yates	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Sami Osmani	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Evan Young	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

NC State Player Prop Bet Projections

Player	PTs	REBs	ASTs	PTs + REBs	PTs + ASTs	PRAs	3Ps	FTs
Terquavion Smith	16.1	4.0	3.9	20.1	20.0	24.0	2.2	1.9
Jarkel Joiner	16.5	5.5	3.6	22.0	20.0	25.6	1.6	2.3
D.J. Burns	11.6	5.3	1.4	16.9	13.0	18.3	0.0	0.9
Casey Morsell	11.4	5.0	0.9	16.4	12.3	17.3	2.0	0.8
Jack Clark	7.7	6.7	1.3	14.4	9.0	15.7	0.9	0.6
Ernest Ross	3.1	2.7	0.2	5.8	3.3	6.0	0.1	0.5
Dusan Mahorcic	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
LJ Thomas	0.7	0.7	0.2	1.4	0.8	1.6	0.1	0.1
Ebenezer Dowuona	3.0	4.1	0.1	7.1	3.1	7.2	0.0	0.3
Breon Pass	1.7	1.1	0.3	2.8	2.0	3.1	0.2	0.1
Greg Gantt	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Jordan Snell	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Chase Graham	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
KJ Keatts	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Alex Nunnally	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Creighton vs. NC State Player Prop Bet Picks

All betting odds are from:

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