Northwestern vs. UCLA: 2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections

Mar 18, 2023 - 11:10 AM

March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.

I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.

Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.

• 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
• 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
• 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
• 2023: 171-114, +50.3 units (Through Round 1)

2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections: Northwestern vs. UCLA

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Northwestern Player Prop Bet Projections

Player	PTs	REBs	ASTs	PTs + REBs	PTs + ASTs	PRAs	3Ps	FTs
Boo Buie	15.4	3.5	4.1	18.9	19.5	23.0	1.7	3.0
Chase Audige	12.9	3.7	2.6	16.6	15.5	19.2	1.8	1.9
Ty Berry	8.2	5.3	1.1	13.5	9.3	14.6	1.4	1.4
Robbie Beran	5.1	3.6	0.4	8.7	5.5	9.1	0.8	1.1
Brooks Barnhizer	8.4	6.3	1.2	14.6	9.6	15.8	0.9	1.7
Matthew Nicholson	5.0	5.3	1.1	10.3	6.1	11.4	0.0	1.0
Tydus Verhoeven	2.1	2.6	0.6	4.7	2.6	5.2	0.0	0.3
Julian Roper II	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Nick Martinelli	2.5	1.6	0.3	4.1	2.8	4.4	0.2	0.3
Luke Hunger	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Roy Dixon	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Blake Smith	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

UCLA Player Prop Bet Projections

Player	PTs	REBs	ASTs	PTs + REBs	PTs + ASTs	PRAs	3Ps	FTs
Jaime Jaquez	18.7	10.8	2.6	29.5	21.3	32.1	1.0	3.4
Tyger Campbell	14.4	3.4	5.1	17.8	19.5	22.8	1.6	2.8
Jaylen Clark	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
David Singleton	11.0	4.0	1.3	15.0	12.3	16.3	2.5	1.7
Amari Bailey	12.8	5.6	2.4	18.4	15.2	20.8	0.8	1.7
Adem Bona	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Dylan Andrews	4.2	1.7	1.3	5.9	5.5	7.2	0.5	0.5
Kenneth Nwuba	2.1	3.9	0.7	6.0	2.8	6.7	0.0	0.2
Mac Etienne	1.7	4.4	0.4	6.2	2.1	6.5	0.0	0.3
Abramo Canka	0.7	0.5	0.1	1.2	0.9	1.3	0.1	0.1
Will McClendon	1.3	1.8	1.1	3.1	2.3	4.1	0.1	0.3
Russell Stong	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Evan Manjikian	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Logan Cremonesi	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Northwestern vs. UCLA Player Prop Bet Picks

All betting odds are from:

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