Gonzaga vs. TCU: 2023 NCAA Tournament West Region Second Round Preview

Mar 18, 2023 - 4:14 PM

Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. TCU Horned Frogs Game Info

Gonzaga Bulldogs (29-5, 14-2 West Coast) vs. TCU Horned Frogs (22-12, 9-9 Big 12)

• Date: Sunday, Mar. 19, 2023
• Start Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Location: Ball Arena — Denver, CO
• Coverage: TBS
• Last Meeting: December 30, 1998 — TCU defeated Gonzaga 90-87 in Fort Worth.

Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. TCU Horned Frogs Betting Odds

Odds courtesy of FanDuel

• Moneyline: GONZ: (-194) | TCU: (+158)
• Point Spread: GONZ: -4.5 (-110) | TCU: +4.5 (-110)
• Total: 156.5 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

Betting Trends

• Gonzaga 2022-23 Betting Trends: 13-19-1 ATS; 19-14 to the Over
• TCU 2022-23 Betting Trends: 16-17-1 ATS; 16-17-1 to the Over
• Gonzaga is 0-6 ATS in its last six NCAA Tournament games.
• Gonzaga is 3-11-1 ATS in its last 15 neutral site games.
• The Over is 8-3 in Gonzaga’s last 11 games overall.
• TCU is 1-4 ATS in its last five games.
• TCU is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following a straight up win.
• The Under is 4-0-1 in TCU’s last five games.

Overview

Gonzaga has been the dominant West Coast team in basketball for much of the last two decades, proving to be the more consistent team than UCLA in that span. The Bulldogs have the fourth-best odds at most sportsbooks to win the West region and advance to the Final Four. Meanwhile, TCU is coming off its first NCAA Tournament victory in 35 years after JaKobe Coles’ buzzer-beater with 1.5 seconds left propelled the Horned Frogs to a 72-70 win over Arizona State.

Gonzaga Bulldogs Betting Preview

Gonzaga has lost just one game to an opponent other than regular season conference co-champion Saint Mary’s since December 2. In addition, its offense has been on fire of late, scoring 80+ points in 11 consecutive games against non-Saint Mary’s opponents.

TCU Horned Frogs Betting Preview

TCU lost two of its final three games heading into the NCAA Tournament. Its opening-round win over Arizona State was marred with some controversy, as center Eddie Lampkin (6.3 points, 5.9 rebounds per game) stepped away from the team, alleging abuse by head coach Jamie Dixon.

Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. TCU Horned Frogs Betting Pick and Prediction

It is uncommon for Gonzaga not to be a No. 1 seed after being the No. 1 overall seed in each of the last two NCAA Tournaments. In addition, in the Mark Few era, the Bulldogs have been a No. 1 seed five times, more than they have been anything else.

Gonzaga’s “struggles” this year relative to their usual lofty preseason aspirations is largely because of struggles in the non-conference. The Bulldogs lost to Texas and Purdue by 18+ points each and Baylor by one point on a neutral court. If there is one thing Gonzaga has struggled with over the years, it is quick and athletic guards, which TCU has in droves. Losing Lampkin hurts TCU frontcourt depth, but the Horned Frogs used a blistering top-two Big 12 tempo to overcome the worst 3-point shooting percentage in league play (29.9%) and average 75.1 points per game.

TCU is a respectable 6-6 ATS as underdogs and covered six of 13 games against ranked opponents. Meanwhile, Gonzaga was awful in non-conference games, going just 4-10-1 ATS. That has not stopped 71% of early wagers from backing the Bulldogs, which has us comfortable on the other side as a contrarian play.

Pick: TCU +4.5 (-110 at Caesars)

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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