Creighton vs. San Diego State: 2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections

Mar 25, 2023 - 6:24 PM

March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.

I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.

• Creighton vs. San Diego State Elite Eight Preview
• Miami vs. Texas Elite Eight Preview
• NCAA Tournament Survivor Guide For the Elite Eight (Sunday)

Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.

• 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
• 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
• 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
• 2023: 272-209, +48.52 units (Through Sweet 16)

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