CFP thoughts: Significant change in top 4

Nov 22, 2017 - 1:33 AM There was just one change in the top 10 in the College Football Playoff rankings released Tuesday, but it might be significant.

Miami (10-0) moved from No. 3 to No. 2, switching spots with Clemson and thereby strengthening the ACC's odds of getting two teams in the four-team playoff. The Hurricanes and Tigers will meet in the ACC title game.

When Clemson (10-1) was No. 2, it would have been easier for the selection committee to drop Miami from third to out of the playoff picture. But now the committee is on record as valuing the Hurricanes' resume above all others except Alabama, making it a more difficult decision to omit a one-loss Miami team from the playoff ... assuming it at least plays a competitive game against the Tigers.

If nothing else, Miami now has a larger margin of error, which could be problematic for a team trying to come from back in the pack -- such as No. 9 Ohio State.

Selection committee chairman Kirby Hocutt said there was little separation among the top five teams.

"We talked about a Miami team that has shown progress, really strengthened their resume in the last three weeks," Hocutt said. "The selection committee, as we talk about what we see on the field, we see characteristics of a championship-caliber team. ...

"They have the ever-slight margin ahead of No. 3 Clemson."

The committee did get that right.

Three other thoughts about the fourth weekly release of the CFP rankings:

1. Ohio State still has a path to the playoff.

Here's one scenario. Alabama, Miami and Oklahoma win out. In that scenario, No. 3 Clemson, No. 6 Auburn and No. 7 Georgia will each have an additional loss. See ya.

The Buckeyes can take care of No. 5 Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game. That only leaves one more team for Ohio State to jump: No. 8 Notre Dame. The 9-2 Irish finish Saturday at No. 21 Stanford, which would be a nice topper, but an Ohio State team that wins this week at Michigan and finishes with a Big Ten title will have no problem making that particular leapfrog over the Irish.

But, of course, Ohio State needs so many other dominoes to fall into place.

2. Alabama wins Saturday and is in.

If the top-ranked Crimson Tide takes down Auburn in the Iron Bowl, it will absolutely be in the playoff, no matter what else happens, assuming Alabama doesn't have a nuclear meltdown against Georgia in the SEC Championship Game.

And when is the last time a Nick Saban-coached team had a nuclear meltdown? Exactly.

3. Everybody is rooting for Alabama.

If the above thought is true -- and we just don't see the selection committee having the brass to bring down the axe on a one-loss Crimson Tide -- then it's more chaos.

Consider this scenario: Georgia, Clemson and Oklahoma win out and are one-loss league champs. If Alabama fills that fourth spot, then Miami and even a potentially undefeated Wisconsin are left out. Ugh.

No conference has yet to place two teams into the CFP final four, but the ACC and the SEC are inching to that happening.