College Football Futures: Best Bets for NCAAF National Champion

Aug 7, 2021 - 11:10 AM

The college football championship futures market is a referendum on Alabama.

Crimson Tide believers can point to coach Nick Saban’s unprecedented dominance of the sport. With last year’s dismantling of Ohio State in the title game, he’s now coached six of the past 12 national champs. One could argue such a ridiculous record justifies even-money odds, making current offerings of about 5-2 scream overlay.

Skeptics like myself are prying deeper. For one thing, this slacker Saban has only repeated as champ once. He’s the NCAA equivalent of Bill Belichick, ever-dangerous but usually most lethal after regrouping. Though Saban always gets the pick of the recruiting litter – imagine Belichick drafting from the No. 1 slot every season – his reloading challenge is heightened this year. Quarterback Mac Jones and playmakers DeVonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle, and Najee Harris are off to the NFL as first-round draft choices from a historically potent offense.

To assess the wagering merits of ’Bama and its would-be conquerors, I built an estimated fair-odds line for the top 10 teams based on factors such as early power ratings, schedule strength, and seasonal simulations from various sources. Then I compared it with the best available prices from five major U.S. sportsbooks.

Check out our consensus futures odds for National Championship Winner >>

That yielded four significant overlays, though the ideal odds aren’t available in every state. Two of the attractive contenders, Clemson and Oklahoma, are lower-priced options from the NCAA’s second flight — the cluster of squads nipping at Alabama’s heels. The others, Texas and Notre Dame are longshots lurking in the top 20 that may appeal to bolder speculators. The value on another seeming overlay, Miami, is too thin to merit consideration.

Team	ESPN Power Index	PFF Championship Probability %	Estimated Fair Odds	Best Price Found
Alabama	26.8	23	+315	+260
Clemson	26.6	17	+333	+450
Oklahoma	24.1	13	+553	+800
Ohio State	22.5	13	+749	+600
Georgia	19.2	7	+1239	+800
Texas A&M	18.5	2	+3915	+4000
Texas	16.4	1	+5460	+8000
Notre Dame	16.1	1	+5580	+8000
Iowa State	15.5	1	+6442	+3300
Miami	15	1	+6760	+7500

 
Note: Odds as of Aug. 6 are subject to change and availability

Clemson (+450): BetMGM

With two national championships in the past five years, Coach Dabo Swinney is something of a Saban-lite. His path to a third title becomes relatively clear if the Tigers get past Georgia on opening day. ESPN’s initial simulations give Clemson the best chance of any major team to go unbeaten, thanks in part to its ACC schedule.

The Tigers, like the Tide, have reloaded on offense. Replacing a No. 1 overall draft pick like Trevor Lawrence is never easy. Still, D.J. Uiagalelei, a top early contender for the Heisman Trophy, auditioned last year as if he’s up to the task. It will take a village to replace versatile running back Travis Etienne, and Swinney’s got one – a half-dozen or so talented dudes raring to go. On defense, Clemson has arguably the best line in the nation and benefits from unusual continuity, retaining all its starters.

Yet the soft schedule could cut two ways: A single loss for the Tigers might weigh heavily enough to make them playoff spectators.

Oklahoma (+800): BetMGM

Playing in the Big 12 for at least another year, Oklahoma also gets a schedule boost, as Iowa State and Texas look like the only roadblocks in its league.

The Sooners benefit from a rare combination of returning production and elite recruiting in 2021. Eight starters are back on the stout defense overseen by coordinator Alex Grinch, who engineered a turnaround when he came aboard two years ago. And, oh yeah, the offense is led by Heisman favorite Spencer Rattler, whose three main targets return, including 2020 breakout receiver Marvin Mims. Experience at QB gives contenders like Oklahoma and Clemson an edge over those like Alabama, Ohio State, and Florida with promising question marks.

What’s more, coach Lincoln Riley’s team will be motivated after failing to land a fourth straight appearance in the College Football Playoff. Though the Sooners are slightly behind Clemson on paper, at 8-1, they may offer the best value on the board.

Texas (+8000): FanDuel

A winning record and a top-20 finish won’t get it done in Austin. That’s what got the last two Longhorns coaches fired.

The new guy, Steve Sarkisian, takes over a strong roster with running back Bijan Robinson and likely starting quarterback Casey Thompson already generating Heisman hype. His defensive coordinator, Pete Kwiatkowski, is known for building lockdown units at Washington and Boise State. Kwiatkowski can get the most from a defense that hasn’t lived up to its recruiting rankings in recent years.

This season, the Longhorns find themselves in an unusual situation as a sleeper, a club that could jump forward off a six-win campaign in 2020. With Texas set to join Oklahoma in moving to the SEC by 2025 (or earlier if lawyers can work their magic), Sark’s best shot at a title run could come in his debut season.

Notre Dame (+8000): FanDuel

Coach Brian Kelly has brought the Fighting Irish back to respectability, finishing with top-12 rankings for four straight years. They keep knocking on the door before stumbling, as with last year’s season-ending losses to Clemson and Alabama. Now Kelly might be able to guide Notre Dame to the ultimate goal: its first national title since 1988.

The Irish can recover from losing quarterback Ian Book, four offensive-line starters, and defensive coordinator Clark Lea, who became the head coach at Vanderbilt. The new QB, Wisconsin transfer Jack Coan, was highly efficient in 2019 before an injury cost him the gig there last year. New DC Marcus Freeman was likened to a five-star recruit when he was hired away from Cincinnati. The O-line, which could have two true freshmen starting, is the main uncertainty, though the program’s recent history of success upfront offers hope. The big uglies are already bulking up on free pizza.

On the downside, the team’s undoing could be a deceptively brutal schedule in its return to independent status. Six of Notre Dame’s opponents will be coming off bye weeks — the most in the nation. All isn’t lost, however: The Irish made the final four in 2019 when seven foes had extra prep time.

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