Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Michigan Wolverines Odds & Game Pick (2021)

Sep 23, 2021 - 10:16 AM

The No. 19 Michigan Wolverines (3-0) and Rutgers Scarlet Knights (3-0) begin Big Ten Conference play when they tangle at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor. Each team covered the spread in all three of their victories thus far, winning every game by double digits.

Michigan has a fairly balanced offensive attack: The Wolverines are completing 65.3% of their passes and averaging 7.1 yards per carry on the ground. Rutgers, on the other hand, is grinding opponents down with its defense. The Scarlet Knights are plus-seven in the turnover differential and holding teams to just 4.3 yards per play.

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Details

• Opening Line: Michigan -19
• Current Line: Michigan -20
• Over/Under (O/U): 50.5
• Location: Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor
• Start Time: Saturday, September 25, 2021, 3:30 p.m. ET
• Last meeting: Michigan 48, Rutgers 42 (overtime) in Nov. 2020. The Scarlet Knights easily covered as 11-point home underdogs and Michigan-Rutgers last season soared way Over the total of 52.

Trends

Michigan hired Jim Harbaugh as head coach in 2015, and Rutgers brought back on Greg Schiano before last season.

• Since 2015, Michigan is 24-25-1 against the spread (ATS) in conference play and 21-15 ATS as home favorites. The Wolverines have the highest rate of Overs played since hiring Harbaugh.
• Under Schiano’s watch, Rutgers is 5-0 ATS on the road with a plus-13.8-point spread differential and 5-3 ATS as an underdog. The Scarlet Knights are 7-5 O/U since the beginning of last season as well.
• Also, Michigan is 6-1 overall and 4-3 ATS vs. Rutgers since the Scarlet Knights joined the Big Ten in 2014.

Action report

According to Pregame.com, more than 90% of the cash wagered is on the Under, while roughly 70% of the bets placed are on the Over. Oddsmakers have brought the Rutgers-Michigan total down from 53.5 on the opener to the current number. However, both sides of the market are on Michigan in this spot. Nearly two-thirds of the action is on the Wolverines, which has steamed them up from a 19-point favorite to -20.

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Handicap

Weather is one of the most likely factors to have an impact on this game. The weather forecast is predicting scattered showers in Ann Arbor Saturday with winds in the mid-teens. Now, the identity of both teams is more suited for bad weather. They both like to run the ball and play defense. Rutgers runs the ball at the 23rd-most frequent rate while Michigan ranks third in rushing rate. The Wolverines are much more efficient (Michigan averages 7.1 yards per carry, Rutgers averages 2.9 yards per carry). But, Michigan’s first three opponents ranked 98th, 114th, and 117th in defensive yards per carry, whereas Rutgers ranks 22nd.

Furthermore, I’m high on Schiano’s chances of building a top-25 football program at Rutgers. And Schiano made his bones in football as a defensive guy. Look at the early results of Schiano’s second stint at Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights are over-performing expectations (8-4 ATS since 2020) and have covered in all their road games. Last season, the Scarlet Knights took Michigan to overtime as double-digit home underdogs. The year before Schiano took over (2019), Michigan crushed Rutgers 52-0. In 2018, Michigan won 42-7. Not only has Rutgers shown instant improvement under Schiano, but the Scarlet Knights also return the most starters of any Big Ten team. Meaning, Rutgers should be even better in the second year of the second Schiano era.

Plus, this is a good buy-low spot for Rutgers and a good sell-high spot for Michigan. I thought this game was mispriced when it opened. Michigan is getting too much love for beating a Washington Huskies team that lost to Montana in Week 1, and Schiano is above average coach in the Big Ten. Finally, this is a Pros vs. Joe’s situation in the betting market for the total. There’s a ton of money on Under even though nearly three-fourths of the handle is on the Over. It’s plus-EV to follow the money in sports betting especially when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the public.

Picks: Rutgers +20 (-110 for 1 unit) & UNDER 50 (-110 for a half unit)

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Geoff Clark is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Geoff, check out his archive and follow him @Geoffery_Clark.

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