Iowa State Cyclones vs. Baylor Bears Odds & Game Pick (2021)

Sep 24, 2021 - 3:03 AM

BIG 12 play gets underway Saturday afternoon in Waco, TX as the #14 Iowa State Cyclones hit the road to give Baylor their toughest test to date. In order for the 3-0 Bears to stay undefeated, they’ll need their most complete performance to date after what’s been a relatively easy opening slate.

Let’s take a closer look at where the value remains as kickoff approaches.

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Details

• Opening Line: Baylor +6.5, O/U 48
• Current Line: Baylor +7, O/U 47.5

Overview 

While Baylor has gotten slack all week for their 3-0 record against weak opponents, the Cyclones come in having not played the stiffest competition themselves. Struggling out of the gates vs. FCS foe Northern Iowa winning by just six points, the Cyclones lost at home to Iowa before beating up on one of the worst teams in FBS this season UNLV.

At the center of the issues for the Cyclones has been quarterback Brock Purdy. Prior to facing the cupcake Rebels defense, Purdy had struggled to just 338 yards through the air and a touchdown to interception ratio of 0:3. If not for a defense allowing just 3.4 yards per play, these Cyclones could very well be 1-2.

Despite their wins coming vs. Texas State, Texas Southern, and Kansas, Baylor has handled their business with a net ATS margin of +31. Following the offseason departure of quarterback Charlie Brewer, junior Gerry Bohannon has stepped right in to lead this team with eight total touchdowns, no interceptions, and a rating of 200+ in two of his three starts thus far.

On the defensive side of the ball, Baylor has allowed just seven points in two consecutive games and has one of their best all-around units in recent memory.

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Trends 

• The Under is 4-0 in L4 Cyclones games in the BIG 12
• Bears are 6-2 ATS in L8 vs. Cyclones

Bottom Line

Despite Purdy and head coach Matt Campbell getting much of the press in the lead up to this one, Baylor head coach Dave Aranada is quietly building something in Waco. In addition to Bohannon, running backs Abram Smith and Trestan Ebner have the ability to establish the run game, and I look for them to do just that here.

Even with the 2020 Bears securing just two wins, they challenged this Cyclones team (38-31) and forced Purdy into three interceptions along the way. With a much improved Baylor team now getting this one at home, I look for a similarly close game with the Bears having a chance to win outright late.

Pick: Baylor Bears +7

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