Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs Odds & Game Pick (2021)

Oct 14, 2021 - 10:17 PM

Coming into their first loss against a non-ranked opponent in nearly 100 games, the #5 Crimson Tide might be a little ticked off heading into Mississippi State this weekend. The home Bulldogs are coming in off of a bye but beat that same team (Texas A&M) on the road their last time out.

Let’s take a closer look at this SEC showdown and see where the value remains ahead of Saturday’s showdown.

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Details

• Opening Line: Bulldogs +17, O/U 59
• Current Line: Bulldogs +17, O/U 57.5

Overview 

The underdog Bulldogs come into this one with no doubt the more confident, if not outright better, QB at the helm. Will Rogers is the only QB thus far in the SEC who has thrown for 400+ yards and 2+ TDs in the same game, which he has done twice this season.

Ranking #5 through the air, the Bulldogs have been unable to establish a run game ranking dead last in the NCAA with just 56.2 yards per game. On the defensive side of the ball, the Bulldogs have been stout in stopping the run, allowing just 89.4 of their own.

When the Crimson Tide comes to town, your best bet is just limiting, not stopping, their big-play ability. Their 44.3 points per game of offense are good for #6 in the nation, as an increasingly competent young QB leads them at the helm in Bryce Young. Their rushing attack, which has always been strong, ranks right in the middle of the pack this season, averaging 162 yards per game.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Crimson Tide is allowing just 300 yards of total defense, with their biggest feat to date being not allowing Ole Miss in the endzone for an entire half two weeks ago.

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Trends 

• Home team 4-1 ATS in L5 meetings
• Over is 7-3 in Crimson Tide’s L10 away games

Bottom Line

The Bulldogs have a lot going for them this season and are a combined five points away from coming into this one undefeated and likely hovering around the top 10 themselves. Unfortunately for them in this one, they draw an Alabama team looking poised to take out last week’s loss on a defense that has been shaky (at best) as of late.

I like for the Tide to score early and often and for this one to get out of hand quickly.

Pick: Crimson Tide -17

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