College Football Conference Winners Best Bets, Odds & Predictions (2022)

Aug 20, 2022 - 10:31 AM

The college football season is fast approaching, and bettors have just nine days to place their bets for the preseason division winners.

Remember, last year, just one preseason Power 5 favorite won their conference title, and just five out of 14 division favorites won their divisions. Lost story short, the favorite doesn’t always win. This season should be no different.

So I must specify that these aren’t my picks to win the division outrightly; these are my best value picks based on the odds given. 

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ACC Atlantic

Odds

1. Clemson (-240) 70.6%
2. North Carolina State (+475) 17.4%
3. Louisville (+1400) 6.7%
4. Florida State (+1500) 6.3%
5. Wake Forest (+1600) 5.9%
6. Boston College (+1800) 5.3%
7. Syracuse (+8000) 1.2%

Best Bet: Louisville +1400

Remember what I said earlier; the favorite doesn’t always win. And of all teams in the ACC Atlantic, no team returns more offensive EPA (Estimated Points Added) than Louisville, according to collegefootballdata.com. Louisville returns 80% of its production according to ESPN’s SP+ (14th in the country). That begins with their signal caller, Malik Cunningham, who was the first P5 player to average over 8 yards per pass attempt and 6 yards per carry since Kyler Murray. 

In terms of scheduling, the Cardinals not only draw North Carolina State, Wake Forest, and Pittsburgh at home. But outside of Clemson, Louisville is favored by at least four points in every single conference game in my preseason model. They may not have the most likely outcome to win the conference, but if you’re looking for value, their roster and schedule say it’s an absolute value. And if Clemson doesn’t fix their QB problem like last year, Louisville could catch the Tigers on a down year. 

Oh, and by the way, for those looking to bet over/under win totals, Louisville is currently at -5.5 wins on FanDuel. I would hammer the over. 

ACC Coastal

Odds

1. Miami FL (+155) 39.2%
2. Pittsburgh (+260) 27.8%
3. North Carolina (+380) 20.8%
4. Virginia (+700) 12.5%
5. Virginia Tech (+1000) 9.1%
6. Georgia Tech (+3500) 2.8%
7. Duke (+20,000) 0.5%

Best Bet: Miami FL +155

Over the final six games last season, Miami went 5-1, averaged 35.8 points per game and Tyler Van Dyke tossed 3.3 touchdowns per game. Not only do they return their star quarterback, but they return 80% of production on defense on SP+ (22nd in college football). Their rushing attack should improve as they added Harry Parrish Jr. from Ole Miss, who averaged over 5 yards per carry last season. However, among Miami’s additions, none are more significant than head coach Mario Cristobal, who won 73% of his games at Oregon. 

The Hurricanes also draw their two biggest likely competitors in the division, Pittsburgh and North Carolina, at home. Getting this blend of talent in Miami’s roster and staff at plus value is a nice value. 

Big Ten East

Odds

1. Ohio State (-320) 76.2%
2. Michigan (+400) 20.0%
3. Penn State (+950) 9.5%
4. Michigan State (+1800) 5.3%
5. Maryland (+8000) 1.2%
6. Indiana (+12,000) 0.8%
7. Rutgers (+20,000) 0.5%

Best Bet: Ohio State -320

This is not a flashy pick by any means, but you could argue Ohio State has the most talent at every single position group in the Big Ten. From potential No. 1 overall pick, C.J. Stroud, to another projected first-round draft pick, Jaxson Smith-Njigba, this offense has what it takes to score 50 points per game. Ohio State may have fixed its only weakness by hiring Jim Knowles as defensive coordinator from Oklahoma State. His defense only gave up 18.2 PPG in 2021, which was the least allowed in the Big 12. 

I would also sprinkle money on Maryland. We’ve seen Ohio State lose random games they’re not supposed to; just ask Purdue. Their passing attack may give Jim Knowles’s blitz-heavy scheme a hard time. According to PFF, Taulia Tagovailoa’s passer rating went up from 98.4 to 111.4 when blitzed, and getting the Terps at +8000 is a great value, but no more than a dollar or two. Long story short, nobody compares to the talent on this roster. The Buckeyes should be favored by at least a touchdown every game, and this is likely its best shot to win the National Championship since 2014. 

Big Ten West

Odds

1. Wisconsin (+190) 34.5%
2. Nebraska (+360) 21.7%
3. Iowa (+400) 20.0%
4. Minnesota (+450) 18.2%
5. Purdue (+600) 14.3%
6. Illinois (+2800) 3.5%
7. Northwestern (+8000) 1.2%

Best Bet: Minnesota +450

Of all divisions in college football, none are as wide open as the Big Ten West. But despite Minnesota having the fourth-best odds, it may have the most talented roster in this division and the most favorable schedule. They get back their two-time 1,000-yard rusher, Mo Ibrahim, who they lost to a torn ACL last year. They also return the 16th most receiving EPA in college football, according to collegefootballdata.com, as they return 60% of snaps from a defense that allowed just 17.2 PPG. But nothing sticks out more than their offensive line. They’re the only team in all of college football that returns five offensive linemen with a PFF blocking grade of over 80. 

Between Wisconsin, Nebraska, Iowa and Minnesota, the talent disparity is close enough to where it will depend on scheduling. And of those four teams listed, Minnesota is the only team that does not play Michigan or Ohio State. 

SEC East

Odds

1. Georgia (-550) 84.6% 
2. Florida (+1000) 9.1%
3. Tennessee (+1100) 8.3%
4. Kentucky (+1200) 7.7%
5. South Carolina (+4000) 2.4%
6. Missouri (+8000) 1.2%
7. Vanderbilt (+40,000) 0.3%

Best Bet: Georgia -550

This is not a division that I’m rushing to bet on. Georgia should be at least a touchdown favorite in every regular season game this season. Plus, you only receive 15% of your money back if they win the division. With that said, they have the most talent at every position in this division except at quarterback, so if you bet this, you will likely get your money back. 

There’s a chance they cough one up against an air raid team that can stop the run and force Stetson Bennett to win a shootout, like Mississippi State or Tennessee. Mississippi State returns 84% of production on defense (8th in CFB), and Tennessee only gave up 3.7 YPC last season. But even if they lose a game they’re not supposed to, Georgia is likely headed for Atlanta. 

SEC West

Odds

1. Alabama (-600) 85.7%
2. Texas A&M (+700) 12.5%
3. Ole Miss (+2000) 4.8%
4. Arkansas (+2200) 4.4%
5. LSU (+3000) 3.2%
6. Mississippi State (+5000) 2.0%
7. Auburn (+8000) 1.2%

Best Bet: Arkansas +2200

There’s no doubt that Alabama has owned the SEC West. They’ve won nine of the last 14 SEC West titles. But this is the most stacked division in college football by a landslide. If I were to predict a winner, it would be Alabama, but I’m not sure I would take their odds with all of the talent in this division. For starters, Arkansas was within a touchdown of Alabama last year on the road, and now they play them at home. Arkansas has more conference home games than road games. They caught a break and drew Missouri and South Carolina from the East. They managed to keep one of the top offensive coordinators in the game, Kendal Briles. K.J. Jefferson, who led the SEC West in yards per pass attempt last season (9.1), also returns. 

Arkansas isn’t my pick to win the division, but their returning talent and favorable conference schedule make the Razorbacks at +2200 an absolute value.

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