Betting the Big 12: Week 3

Sep 15, 2022 - 1:30 PM

College football might not get another year like 2007, where everyone from Boston College, South Florida, and Kansas(???) spent time ranked in the top 5, but if that model was going to be followed, wouldn’t it look a lot like what we’ve seen through the first 2 weeks of the season? Kansas is 2-0. Appalachian State pulled another road upset against a perpetually overrated team. Notre Dame is 0-2. Heck, even Iowa State won the CyHawk game that year with almost no offensive output. Alabama isn’t going 7-6 this year with a loss to a Sun Belt school, but perhaps they’re a little more vulnerable than we thought? Could a school like BYU go on the road and beat Oregon this weekend to set up for an undefeated run and push for a playoff bid? It’s nice to feel like there are possibilities for once.

If we’re going to have an unpredictable season, there will be gambling land mines around every turn. Last Saturday was a nice little reminder. The column took some hits in the CyHawk game and Kansas inexplicably winning a conference road game. This weekend feels eerily similar. Week 1 was a roaring success, and Week 2 was a step backwards. The Week 3 slate doesn’t seem great, but those are the days that bring the most excitement. Let’s tread carefully with our bets and try and find some consistency.

THE GAMES

#6 Oklahoma (2-0) at Nebraska (1-1)

Kickoff: 11:00am | TV: FOX | The Line: Oklahoma -11

Nebraska made this one easy for us. We get to hop onto one of the most reliable gambling trends out there. It’s the fired coach bounce! Let’s see what we’re working with on the interim...

Perfect. Old school rah rah guy. Nebby will be happy to have Scott Frost gone and rally behind Mickey Joseph for at least 1 week.

Pick: Nebraska +11

Texas State (1-1) at #17 Baylor (1-1)

Kickoff: 11:00am | TV: FS1 | The Line: Baylor -30

This is an interesting spot for Baylor after an emotional loss. My head says Texas State is no good, even though the Sun Belt is dangerous. Take Baylor in a “get right” spot.

Pick: Baylor -30

Towson (2-0) at West Virginia (0-2)

Kickoff: 12:00pm | TV: ESPN+ | The Line: West Virginia -39

I know it’s an FBS vs. FCS game but West Virginia hasn’t shown enough defensively to win a game by 40 points.

Pick: Towson +39

Ohio (1-1) at Iowa State (2-0)

Kickoff: 1:00pm | TV: ESPN+ | The Line: Iowa State -18.5

Call this a pessimistic view. Emotional letdown spot after an enormous rivalry win with an early afternoon start against a MAC school with a bunch of players beat up. The vibes aren’t great. Iowa State wins but it’s closer than expected.

Pick: Ohio +18.5

Tulane (2-0) at Kansas State (2-0)

Kickoff: 2:00pm | TV: ESPN+ | The Line: Kansas State -14.5

Iowa State fans might have to accept the fact that Kansas State is good. This is Tulane’s first step up in weight class after a 2-0 start against UMass and Alcorn State. Kansas State can run the ball and completely shut down Missouri last weekend. This should be another comfortable victory.

Pick: Kansas State -14.5

Kansas (2-0) at Houston (1-1)

Kickoff: 3:00pm | TV: ESPNU | The Line: Houston -8.5

Kudos to Kansas. I see the Jayhawks catching a bunch of the sympathy that Iowa State did 5 years ago for getting better at football. With that said, Houston is mad about blowing the Tech game. Kansas can’t really keep doing this, right???? If they pull this one off, we’ll officially start worrying about the Cyclones trip to Lawrence in October.

Pick: Houston -8.5

Texas Tech (2-0) at #16 NC State (2-0)

Kickoff: 6:00pm | TV: ESPN2 | The Line: NC State -10

Call it a hunch but Texas Tech is above average and NC State is still a little bit overrated.

Pick: Texas Tech +10

UTSA (1-1) at #21 Texas (1-1)

Kickoff: 7:00pm | TV: LHN | The Line: Texas -12.5

This is a very dangerous spot for the Horns Down gang. They’ve spent more time complaining about the officials and injuries. UTSA is no joke. Texas has questionable QB health at best and the Roadrunners can score to keep up with anyone. Meep meep.

Pick: UTSA +12.5

BEST BET AROUND THE COUNTRY

Nevada +23 at Iowa

I mean, it has to be, right? Iowa has scored 14 points through 2 games. This is a good spot for them, but what is a good offensive day? Can they get to 24 points?

NFL PICK OF THE WEEKEND

Ravens -3.5 vs Dolphins

I just have a good feeling about the Ravens this year. Starting QB is in a betting on himself in a contract year. Last time that happened? 2012 when Joe Flacco lead them to the Super Bowl.

PROP OF THE WEEK FOR WEST VIRGINIA FANS

Next West Virginia Head Football Coach?

Tom Herman +200

Jamey Chadwell +250

Shawn Clark +500

Rich Rodriguez +1000

Scott Frost +5000

Season record: 12-9-1 (+2.1 units)