Boston College Football: Resetting Expectations

Sep 19, 2022 - 1:00 PM

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The Boston College Eagles football season is somehow already 25% over. Usually the quick march through the schedule is depressing, but with the rough beginning to the season it feels like it might be at least a little bit of a blessing. The Eagles got the win against Maine, but fan sentiment really can’t be that high after a 38-17 win over an FCS team that’s 0-3 and has a 41-0 loss to New Mexico.

Season predictions in our preseason roundtable were in the 7 or 8 win range thanks to big time star power in the skill positions and a hope that Jeff Hafley’s ability to coach up a defense would help make for a great year. But the worries about the inexperienced offensive line after so much talent graduated were obviously not taken seriously enough. The line play has been a massive problem over the first three weeks, and with the season a quarter of the way into the books, there isn’t a lot of time for them to make big leaps.

With the Eagles sitting at 1-2 with three of our easiest games behind us, there aren’t too many games ahead where you’d feel great about BC’s chances. Six wins now feels like a huge reach instead of a bare minimum, and ESPN’s FPI backs that up, with the Eagles at just a 4.2% chance of making it to bowl season. Oof.

Our projected wins now sit at 3.5, which feels pretty optimistic to a lot of us on the BCI staff. At the worst points of the Maine game, there were doubts that the the Eagles could confidently take the win against UConn... But, well, okay, maybe doomsday hasn’t arrived just yet.

So where does ESPN think the wins are coming?

@ Florida State: 10.8%
vs. Louisville: 35.5%
vs. Clemson: 7.8% (alol)
@ Wake Forest: 16.7%
@ UConn: 85.4%
vs. Duke: 47.2%
@ NC State: 12.8%
@ Notre Dame: 9.5%
vs. Syracuse: 23.2%

Some of those feel pretty optimistic. The Clemson one in particular is pretty wild, and Louisville probably should have beaten Florida State this week, so that’s a strange one too. You can reasonably expect to get the UConn win, and maybe you pull out the coin flip against Duke. Maybe the OL looks good enough to take down Syracuse after almost a full season playing together. That’s four wins... and things are so bad right now that you would probably take it at this point.

Is there a path to six wins? If there is, the Eagles are going to have to turn things around pretty dramatically and quickly. You’ll need the UConn W, obviously, but even if you take Syracuse (23.2%) and anything easier, that still leaves you one game short.

If the Eagles can get it together and pull off the massive road win at Florida State, the path would definitely get much easier. But it would be a pretty tall task given the struggles from weeks one through three.