College Football Week 4 Odds, Picks & Prediction: Syracuse vs. Virginia (2022)

Sep 23, 2022 - 10:59 AM

Let’s take a look at the College Football Week 4 odds, picks, and predictions for this week’s game: Syracuse vs. Virginia.

And check out our other Week 4 college football game previews:

• James Madison vs. Appalachian State
• Clemson vs. Wake Forest
• Arizona vs. California
• Notre Dame vs. UNC
• Indiana vs. Cincinnati
• TCU vs. SMU
• Coastal Carolina vs. Georgia State
• USC vs. Oregon State
• Missouri vs. Auburn
• Maryland vs. Michigan
• Florida vs. Tennessee
• Arkansas vs. Texas A&M
• Wisconsin vs. Ohio State
• Kansas State vs. Oklahoma

Check out Thor Nystrom’s Week 4 College Football Power Rankings >>

College Football Week 4 Odds, Picks & Prediction: Syracuse vs. Virginia

Syracuse continued to look good over the weekend, hanging in there for three quarters of a chess match before outlasting Purdue in a wild fourth quarter. The market is still not appreciating the degree to which Syracuse has leveled up.

And it certainly isn’t appreciating how far Virginia fell off over the offseason. The Cavs lost their coaching staff and entire offensive line, and new HC Tony Elliott hasn’t yet figured out how to make his star QB and loaded WR corps viable behind a shoddy front.

Virginia ranks an ugly No. 125 in PFF pass-blocking – the only P5 program in the bottom nine – and No. 112 in havoc rate allowed. Opponents don’t respect the Cavs’ running game, so they’re free to tee off in the pass-rush.

UVA QB Brennan Armstrong’s game has cratered under duress. His 75.8 PFF grade in clean pockets plummets to 32.9 under pressure, with his adjusted accuracy falling from 71.0% to 48.6%.

Syracuse’s pass-rush is middle-of-the-road. But it’s secondary has been a revelation – the Orange rank No. 25 in PFF coverage grade. Because it trusts its defensive backs, Syracuse is confident sending extra rushers, ranking No. 33 in blitz rate. Blitzing Virginia is a strategy that’s worked like gangbusters for opponents – only one team in the nation has been blitzed at a higher rate of passing downs than UVA.

This line should be in the double digits, and I expect it to be across the industry by kickoff. But as of this writing, there are still books offering Syracuse -9.

Pick: Syracuse (-9)

Prop Bet Analyzer: View top rated props and historical prop performance by player >>

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