Baylor vs. Iowa State—Prediction Thread

Sep 23, 2022 - 10:00 PM

Baylor" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/rYHfMRjnrGMRzz_zJwP6hADVp9Q=/0x0:3694x2078/1920x1080/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/71407969/1236282642.0.jpg" />

MATCHUP: #9 Baylor Bears (2-1, 0-0) vs. Iowa State Cyclones (3-0, 0-0)
LOCATION: Ames, Iowa
ODB GAME HUB: Baylor Bears at Iowa State Cyclones 2022
OPPONENT’S SB NATION BLOG: Wide Right Natty Lite (WRNL)
PODCASTS: OurDailyPodcast | Please Bear With Me | Bear Den | Locked on Baylor | Between Two Bears
ODB QUICK HITTER: ISU.
ODB FIRST LOOK: Here.
ODB OPPONENT Q&A: Here.
COLLEGEFOOTBALLDATA.COM TEAM PAGES: Baylor | Iowa State
WEEKLY PRESS CONFERENCE: ISU
GAME NOTES (INCLUDING DEPTH CHART): ISU.
BAYLORBEARS.COM PREVIEW: ISU.
SPREAD: ISU -2.5 (opened at Baylor -2 on Sunday), O/U 45.5
TV COVERAGE: ESPN2, 11:00 AM CT
UNIFORM: DON’T KNOW YET, CHECK BACK.

WEATHER (IN AMES):

Should be just gorgeous for a 11 AM kick. Temperature at 65 degrees at kickoff rising to 76 by the time the game (probably) ends. The possibility for winds out of the WNW late could be interesting? That would seem to favor the team with the stronger ground game, if it is strong enough to affect either team at all.

VIRTUAL WATCH PARTY:

I have been told we are doing another Virtual Watch Party this week, but the link hasn’t gone up yet for it. It will probably start a half-hour before the game, as past Watch Parties have done. Stay tuned.

INJURY UPDATES:

No new news from the Baylor side after the press conference earlier this week. To recap:

• TE Ben Sims—Possible.
• WR Monaray Baldwin—Possible.
• RB Taye McWilliams—Likely out.
• DE Cole Maxwell—Likely out.
• OL Khalil Keith—Almost certainly out.

ODB STAFF PREDICTIONS:

The Texas State predictions ended up being very good, and by my count it appears that Joe Goodman (42-6) was off by just one point from the actual score (42-7), followed by Jed Johnston (42-3) with a 4-point difference and David Fankhauser (41-13), Michael Nichols (41-13), and Noelle Kakimoto (49-7) with a 7-point difference. Etta was just a bit off with differential of 9,952 (by my math).

• Matt Wilson (@mattisbear): Baylor 24, Iowa State 17.
• Peter Pope (@pbpope): Baylor 24, Iowa State 20.
• David Fankhauser (@dfank_bu): Iowa State 24, Baylor 17.
• Amy Pagitt (@AGP4BU): Baylor 42, Iowa State 27.
• Etta (@bayloretta): “Iowa State: cinnamon roll, Baylor: Texas chili”
• Evan Hebert (@evanhebert): Baylor 28, Iowa State 24.
• Joe Goodman (@the_joe_goodman): Baylor 21, Iowa State 16.
• Cody Orr (@cody_orr): Iowa State 21, Baylor 17.
• Branden MacKinnon (@Branden_MacK): Iowa State 28, Baylor 24.
• Michael Nichols (@pckt_chng): Baylor 17, Iowa State 13.
• Jenna Patteson (@jenp108): Baylor 24, Iowa State 17.
• Noelle Kakimoto (@NKakimoto): Baylor 21, Iowa State 14.
• Will Boles (@_willboles): Baylor 31, Iowa State 28.
• Jed Johnston (@BearMySoul17): Baylor 35, Iowa State 31.
• Scott Byrne (@BearNTex): Baylor 24, Iowa State 20.
• Fielding Montgomery (@FieldinOfDreams): Iowa State 23, Baylor 20.
• Deonte Epps (@DEppsRightStepS): Baylor 21, Iowa State 20.

The consensus appears to be a game with a total in the 40s aside from Amy, who I obviously hope is right, and Jed, who pointed out that the average score in the last eleven (11) meetings between the teams is Baylor 35.6, ISU 27.6. Clearly, that includes a few Baylor teams with higher-scoring offenses than we have now, but it’s still good to know. Out of sixteen (16) decipherable predictions above, 12 went for Baylor and 4 for ISU. Having looked around a bit at predictions of other folks in other places, that seems slightly optimistic as compared to the rest of the Baylor fanbase. Like fighter pilots, ODBers are an optimistic lot. Vegas seems to think this will be a close game with a total of 45.5 and a spread that has been rock solid at ISU -2.5 or -3 (very briefly around midday on Wednesday) for the last four days.

I’ll go on record making it 12 for Baylor and 5 for Iowa State. I’ve seen it said that Iowa State is probably slightly worse than they were last year on offense with Hall and Purdy anchoring the offense (mostly Hall) but better on defense, and the combination of injuries on the Baylor side and the fact that this game is on the road have me worried. If Baylor wins, it will be because the offense came out stronger in the passing game and avoided the self-inflicted wounds (procedure penalties) that plagued us against BYU, and the defense made ISU one-dimensional and kept Hutchinson from killing us. We absolutely cannot get behind schedule against this ISU defense, which has not allowed many explosive plays this season. On defense, we have to force ISU to pass and give time for the pass rush to get home.

Because it is a 11 AM game not being played in front of 63,000+ blue-clad crazy people (in a good way, trust me), and Breece Hall isn’t there to make every play, I have hope we can do these things. Still, ISU’s defense looks like it’s for real, and our offense ... does not, at least not yet. It will be close, but until this Baylor team shows me it can win on the road, I won’t predict it will happen (again). I hope for nothing more than to be wrong and look foolish this time tomorrow.

My Prediction: Iowa State 27, Baylor 21.