Arnold Against The Spread: Week 5

Sep 29, 2022 - 2:15 PM

The gambling woes continue after Week 4, we were 2-4 and missed on the Upset Special again. Our gambling record for the year is 9-15 but there is a whole lot of of football left and still time to get hot and win some money. All odds and lines are according to DraftKings Sportsbook*. If the record wasn’t obvious enough, this blog does not constitute financial advice.

Tulane at Houston (-2.5)

Houston finally found their way back into the win column against Rice after losing two in a row. Meanwhile the Green Wave came crashing back down to Earth against Southern Miss after their big victory over Kansas State. I’m expecting Houston to continue their momentum in Week 5 with a win at home over Tulane. If the spread gets above three stay away but at -2.5 I like the Coogs to cover on Friday night.

UTSA at MTSU (Over 63)

We’re sticking with Friday night Group of 5 play here as the Roadrunners and Blue Raiders battle for CUSA supremacy. Since losing to James Madison early in the year, Middle Tennessee has rattled off 34 points or more in three straight contests including putting up 45 in a huge upset of Miami. The Roadrunners are also capable of putting up a lot of points and boast one of the receiver groups in all of football with De’Corian Clark, Joshua Cephus, and Zakhari Franklin. I’m expecting quite a few points to be scored in this one and 63 feels like an easy over to get.

Michigan at Iowa (Under 42.5)

Sure, Iowa put up 27 against Rutgers, but to be fair 14 of those points came courtesy of defensive touchdowns. The Wolverines are easily the best offense the Hawkeyes have faced but Kinnick is a notoriously tough place to play and I expect the Iowa defense to limit some of the damage while Michigan wins to the tune of 24-10. I’m still taking the under anytime I bet on Iowa.

Kentucky at Ole Miss (Under 54)

Mark Stoops has, in my opinion, molded Kentucky into the SEC’s version of Iowa. The Wildcats make it ugly and play a hard-nosed brand of defense but are a bit more competent on the offensive side of the ball with Will Levis under center. The Ole Miss offense is gifted but it isn’t the fast-paced machine of Lane Kiffin paired with Matt Corral anymore. I’m expecting a bit of a rock fight in Oxford on Saturday with both teams struggling to put up points.

Oklahoma State at Baylor (-2)

In a rematch of last year’s Big 12 title game, I expect the Bears to come out on top once more - this time without last second dramatics. I’m not sold on the Pokes just yet in 2022 after their struggles closing out the game against Central Michigan and allowing Arizona State to hang around in Stillwater into the fourth quarter. Baylor has had their woes this season but those woes came on the road. At home, I like the Bears to win by a touchdown or more.

North Carolina State (+6.5) at Clemson

In a matchup that has massive ACC title implications, Clemson is looking to avenge their 2021 loss to the Wolfpack. NC State was a darling going into 2022 but lost a bit of their luster after narrowly escaping defeat against ECU and relying on their defense to overcome Texas Tech. With that being said, I’m expecting Devin Leary and company to have their best game of the season against a Clemson squad that really struggled to shut down Sam Hartman and Wake Forest. Not sure that the Wolfpack will come out on top but I do like them to cover 6.5 points.

Upset Special of the Week: Alabama at Arkansas (+600)

I know that Nick Saban’s teams are finally tuned machines but if there were going to be one week that the Crimson Tide might be caught slipping - I’d expect it to be this week in Fayetteville. The Hogs played Alabama tough this season but given all of the offseason storylines and drama it’s tough not to imagine that the Crimson Tide might be looking ahead to next week’s meeting with Texas A&M. Add to that the fact that Arkansas undoubtedly feels like they had a win stolen from them and Jerry World and a home crowd that still believes in their Hogs? It could be a recipe for an upset. Especially if KJ Jefferson is able to give the Alabama defense problems.

Do you have any locks this week? Let us know below.

*Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.