College Football Week 7 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Longshot Bets (2022)

Oct 12, 2022 - 3:58 PM

Week 7 is upon us, and it brings one of the season’s most exciting slates of games. Marquee matchups will get top billing on Saturday, but this article is focused on long shots, and there are plenty of games to choose from. Last week we hit Ball State over Central Michigan, and we hope to find some more winners this week. Let’s look at some spots I have my eye on.

Check out Thor Nystrom’s Week 7 College Football Power Rankings >>

Louisiana +10.5 at Marshall

The college football week starts early with a Wednesday night Sun Belt matchup between Louisiana and Marshall. Louisiana has started slowly in conference play after winning the title in 2021. The offense dropped off from last year and sits at 97th in SP+ rankings. They’ve been below average both running (83rd in run EPA) and passing (87th in pass EPA) the ball, and it’s shown, only putting up 18.3 points per game in their three losses.

The defense, however, has not missed a step. Coming in at 34th in SP+, they’ve kept the Ragin’ Cajuns in these games, holding their opponents to just 20.5 points per game in Sun Belt play. They should be able to contain a Marshall offense that struggled to move the ball in their only other conference matchup with Troy. 

The Marshall defense grades out very similarly to Louisiana, 42nd in SP+, but they’ve been fortunate to force six turnovers in their three games with FBS opponents.

This should be a low-scoring affair on Wednesday night in Huntington, and the numbers suggest these teams are a lot closer than the current line suggests. With a huge edge on Louisiana, they’re worth backing to pull off the upset against a Marshall team that has looked pedestrian outside of an upset win over Notre Dame.

Pick: Louisiana ML (+310)

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Connecticut +9.5 at Ball State

Following college football for the last decade, you’d understandably be hesitant to back a UConn team attempting to win their third straight game, but here we are. Coach Jim Mora has the Huskies headed in the right direction, and after a tough early schedule, where they were beaten down by top-25 foes, they’ve found themselves on a winning streak. 

The Huskies have been led by an improved defense that has allowed just two offensive touchdowns in the last weeks. The overall numbers don’t look impressive, ranking 113th in SP+ defense. However, against non-Power 5 competition, it has been getting the job done.

In their upset win over CMU last week, Ball State could not move the ball on a defense that was barely rated in the top 100. The Huskies could find similar success on the defensive side of the ball.

Connecticut has also excelled running the ball during their win streak. Still, with RB Devontae Houston out with an ankle injury for this matchup, they’ll need to rely on other runners and QB Zion Turner to continue to take care of the ball and put successful drives together. The Ball State defense is not particularly stout at 95th in SP+, and UConn will get their opportunities to put up points.

Jim Mora has this team believing in themselves, and the results are starting to show. These two teams project closer than this line would suggest, and there is value in the Connecticut ML.

Pick: Connecticut ML (+285)

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Alabama at Tennessee +7.5

The weekend’s biggest game is at Neyland Stadium, a top-10 matchup between Alabama and Tennessee. The Volunteers haven’t started 6-0 since their national championship season in 1998. They’ve lacked the explosive offense the past two decades that they’ve shown this year. Led by Heisman candidate QB Hendon Hooker, Tennessee has the 2nd rated offense per SP+.

They’ll face their toughest test yet in Alabama. The 2nd ranked defense per SP+ has had no issue slowing down all of the opponents they’ve played so far. However, they’ve shown some weakness against the higher-rated offenses they’ve played. They were locked into a 28-23 game at Arkansas early into the 4th quarter before Arkansas’s defense started giving up big plays, leading to a blowout. Against Texas, QB Quinn Ewers was moving the ball easily on the Crimson Tide’s defense before he was knocked out of the game with an injury. 

This defense has feasted on bad offenses and backup quarterbacks. Tennessee will be able to put up points in this game.

On the other side of the ball, Bryce Young is still questionable to play. They struggled to move the ball against Texas A&M last week without him. If he cannot go, that could be more than enough to swing things in Tennessee’s favor, but even if he can play, he may not be at full strength.

The crowd in Knoxville will be rocking on Saturday afternoon. With an elite offense led by Hendon Hooker, the Vols are primed to send Alabama home with their first loss of the year.

Pick: Tennessee ML (+235)

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