College Football Week 7 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Western Kentucky vs. Middle Tennessee State (2022)

Oct 13, 2022 - 4:07 PM

Let’s take a look at the College Football Week 7 odds, picks, and predictions for Saturday’s game: Western Kentucky vs. Middle Tennessee State.

Check out our other College Football game previews for Week 7:

• Auburn vs. Ole Miss
• Maryland vs. Indiana
• LSU vs. Florida
• Clemson vs. Florida State
• Stanford vs. Notre Dame
• Alabama vs. Tennessee
• Penn State vs. Michigan
• USC vs. Utah
• Eastern Michigan vs. Northern Illinois
• Kansas vs. Oklahoma
• Syracuse vs. North Carolina State
• Toledo vs. Kent State
• North Texas vs. Louisiana Tech
• California vs. Colorado
• Arkansas vs. BYU
• Arizona vs. Washington
• Nevada vs. Hawaii
• UTSA vs. FIU
• James Madison vs. Georgia Southern

And here are our top picks of the weekend:

• Thor Nystrom’s Best College Football Week 7 Bets
• Bogman’s College Football Week 7 Best Bets & Predictions
• College Football Week 7 Odds, Picks, & Predictions: Under-the-Radar Plays

Check out Thor Nystrom’s Week 7 College Football Power Rankings >>

College Football Week 7 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Western Kentucky vs. Middle Tennessee State

Western Kentucky (-5.5) @ Middle Tennessee State

I feel like MTSU is getting a little bit too much respect with this line. Middle Tennessee had one of the biggest upsets I’ve seen, beating the Hurricanes on their own home turf in Week 4, and they should be proud!  It was a huge win for the program, but the other five games they played went exactly as expected. 

MTSU beat Colorado State and FCS Tennessee State but was beaten by James Madison, UTSA, and UAB. I thought MTSU had a chance against UAB as 10-point underdogs, but UAB smashed them by 27 last week. Every game that MTSU has lost, they have lost against the spread, and I believe they will lose this game.

Western Kentucky matches up well with MTSU because they sling the rock! WKU has a top-3 passing offense in the country, behind only Washington by two yards and Texas Tech by 10. QB Austin Reed hadn’t thrown for 350 in a game before the 73-0 thrashing of FIU, but in the two games since, he has gone for 406 and 373. Reed is on a heater, and MTSU is BAD against the aerial attack this season. They rank 119th in passing yards against, allowing over 280 yards per game, and 105th in QB Rating against. The three losses have been particularly bad: 278 yards to UAB’s Dylan Hopkins (season-high), 414 yards to Frank Harris of UTSA (season-high), and 287 yards to James Madison’s Todd Centenio (which wasn’t a season-high, but his six passing TDs were).

MTSU has been hit-or-miss on offense this season, putting up over 40 points twice and 30 or more twice, but also has been held to seven in Week 1 and only 14 last week against UAB. WKU statistically ranks slightly above average on defense and grades out as slightly below average, according to PFF. MTSU has made some six plays over 50 yards which are tied for 6th-most in the country, but half of those came against Miami. WKU hasn’t given up a 50-yard play yet this season. This is a bad matchup for MTSU, and all we are asking them to cover is 5.5 points. I think they do that and then some!

Pick: Western Kentucky -5.5 (-110)

Prop Bet Analyzer: View top rated props and historical prop performance by player >>

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