College Football Week 8 Picks & Predictions (2022)

Oct 20, 2022 - 2:17 PM

Last week we had mediocre results. 5-5 ATS with only two underdog ML winners (Northern Illinois and Illinois). The underdogs went 3-3 ATS, and the only game that had a real sweat was Kansas losing 52-42. Everything else was pretty much in hand going into the 4th quarter. Favorites also had a subpar week going 2-2 ATS (2-2 ML), with Miami (OH) and James Madison losing outright. This really put a damper on any possible parlay combination. That brings our record to ATS (16-10-1 with seven ML underdog winners).

Check out Thor Nystrom’s Week 8 College Football Power Rankings >>

Overview

For anyone reading this for the first time, the thought process is simple; we are targeting teams with a top-30 rush rate. We will look at four main advanced defensive statistics to measure how successful the matchup is: Defensive Stuff Rate, Defensive Line Yards, Defensive Rush Success Rate, and Defensive IsoPPP (explosiveness).

There are several angles at play:

An underdog with a high rush rate vs. an opponent who is below average in the four main defensive rush categories. They will have the opportunity to limit possessions and control the game script.
A favorite with a top-30 rush rate vs. an opponent who is stout against the run. They will be forced to employ a game plan that does not fit their overall identity. A favorite’s plan B strategy will never be as dangerous as its preferred method of offense.
An underdog with a top-30 rush rate vs. a stout defense. The favorite in this scenario has the opportunity to blow a game out of reach and leave the underdog behind the proverbial 8-ball.
A favorite with a top-30 rush rate vs. an opponent that is lackluster in the aforementioned categories. In this scenario, we prefer the favorite to be, at most, a 10-point favorite.

The reason for this thinking is high rush rates will always lead to fewer possessions and fewer overall points. The overall margin for error will be slimmer. put this allows us to simplify the handicapping perspective and focus on unbalanced teams. Here’s a summary of the teams we are looking for.

Underdogs with a top-30 rush rate vs. below-average defenses
Underdogs with a stout defense vs. a top-30 rush rate favorite
Favorites with a stout defense vs. a top 30 rush rate underdog
Favorites with a top-30 rush rate (not greater than -10) vs. a below-average defense

Glossary

Stuff Rate: tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage
Def Line Yards: Yards directly influenced by the defensive line
Def Rush Success Rate: 50% of yards needed on 1st down, 70% of yards needed on 2nd down, and 100% on 3rd and 4th down.
Rush IsoPPP: Explosive rush plays allowed (15 yards or more)

Let’s dive into the nine games we are targeting this week.

BYU @ Liberty

Liberty

95th Pass Rate

BYU

110th Def Stuff Rate
123rd Def Line Yards
106th Def Rush Success Rate
27th Def Rush IsoPPP

Toledo @ Buffalo

Toledo

112th Pass Rate

Buffalo

25th Def Stuff Rate
35th Def Line Yards
27th Def Rush Success Rate
126th Def Rush IsoPPP

Utah State @ Wyoming

Utah State

114th Pass Rate

Wyoming

97th Def Stuff Rate
99th Def Line Yards
68th Def Rush Success Rate
52nd Def Rush IsoPPP

Purdue @ Wisconsin

Wisconsin

117th Pass Rate

Purdue

72nd Def Stuff Rate
25th Def Line Yards
26th Def Rush Success Rate
8th Def Rush IsoPPP

UCF @ East Carolina

UCF

110th Pass Rate

East Carolina

9th Def Stuff Rate
7th Def Line Yards
12th Def Rush Success Rate
54th Def Rush IsoPPP

ULM @ Army

Army

131st Pass Rate

ULM

10th Def Stuff Rate
19th Def Line Yards
21st Def Rush Success Rate
128th Def Rush IsoPPP

Western Michigan @ Miami (OH)

Miami (OH)

107th Pass Rate

Western Michigan

115th Def Stuff Rate
97th Def Line Yards
112th Def Rush Success Rate
18th Def Rush IsoPPP

San Diego State @ Nevada

San Diego State

103rd Pass Rate

Nevada

130th Def Stuff Rate
129th Def Line Yards
123rd Def Rush Success Rate
56th Def Rush IsoPPP

Kansas @ Baylor

Kansas

104th Pass Rate

Baylor

56th Def Stuff Rate
30th Def Line Yards
36th Def Rush Success Rate
4th Def Rush IsoPPP

The Bets

Here’s the breakdown of the nine games we are going to target this week

Liberty (+6.5) and Utah State (+3.5) are the two underdogs that are top-30 in rush rates
Buffalo (+6.5), East Carolina (+5.5), Purdue (+2.5), and ULM (+7) are the four underdogs with stout defensive numbers against their rush-heavy opponents
Miami (OH) (-6.5) and San Diego State (-7.5) are the two favorites with a top-30 rush rate vs. questionable defenses
Baylor (-8.5) is the only favorite with stout defensive numbers against a rush-heavy opponent

There are several intriguing spots this week, and we are targeting numerous teams that we have become familiar with over the last month. BYU is 1-4 ATS against top-30 rush-rate teams this year. They have performed abysmally against a rush-heavy team, and I foresee that continuing again this week against Liberty. Wisconsin has played four formidable defenses against the run (Washington State, Ohio State, Illinois, and Michigan State). They are 0-4 ATS and 0-4 ML. They were a minimum favorite of 6.5 points in three of those games and a 19-point underdog to Ohio State. Purdue is a shorter dog indicating the market is seeing what the rest of us are seeing, but nonetheless, there is still value. Army has only faced one team that has ranked in the top 30 in any of the four advanced defensive rushing statistics (UTSA 11th in Def Rush Success Rate). ULM ranks Top 25 in three of the four major categories; this will be a slugfest that provides unseen value.

For the favorites, we have a familiar face in Miami (OH) that let us down last week all the way around. Western Michigan ranks horrendously across the board, yet they haven’t faced a single top-30 rush-rate team. This could be a spot where when it rains, it pours. As you know, I’m not comfortable laying larger favorites, but we can easily fit the three we have into possible ML parlays if the payout makes sense.

Round Robin Parlay x4 ($5)

ULM +210
Buffalo +230
Liberty +220
Purdue +110
East Carolina +165
Utah State +170

By 4s= 15 combinations ($5)= $75 wagered max possible winnings of $4764.43

Parlay Buying Pts/Teaser

ULM +10
Purdue +5.5
Liberty +9.5
Miami (OH) ML
Baylor ML
San Diego State ML

Buying 3pts on the underdogs moves it from -110 to -165. This parlay brings your odds to +895.

Remember, you can interchange the underdogs or add less to change the odds. This is just an example of a way to attack it.

As always, thanks for reading, and good luck with all your bets this weekend!!!

Prop Bet Analyzer: View top-rated props and historical prop performance by player >>

Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced sports betting strategies — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.

The post College Football Week 8 Picks & Predictions (2022) appeared first on BettingPros.