College Football Week 8 Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions (2022)

Oct 21, 2022 - 11:05 AM

This week, we’re backing the Tigers in a clash of headlining SEC-West foes in what should be Ole Miss’s greatest test to date. With the other two picks, we’re playing two significantly less sexy matchups where a style challenge offers value on a low over, and a team is being unfairly graded on the back of losing to top-10 opponents.

Let’s take a look at each matchup in greater detail.

LSU (-2) vs. Ole Miss

For much of the season, LSU’s offense and the passing game have been struggling on the back of an indecisive and inaccurate Jayden Daniels. Additionally, Kayshon Boutte, perhaps the best receiver in the country, looked disinterested after lacking targets. However, recent weeks have shown signs of promise. Boutte built off a touchdown in the Tennessee game to bring in a 100-yard game against Florida in Daniels’ best performance of the year (349 yards, 3 TDs).

Also, while the Rebel defense has performed well so far this season (17.3 pts/game), they’ve done so against poor competition (96^th SOS-played per PFF). Their season averages belie real concerns against a defense that has looked a lot more average in the last 2 weeks, giving up at least 400 yards each to poor offenses in Vanderbilt and Auburn.

Boise State at Air Force (o47.5)

An over for a game involving a service academy? It may look ugly, but I think there’s good value for this low over. For one, I expect Boise State to have success running. Since the recent changes to Boise State’s offense (Dirk Koetter taking over as interim OC and Taylen Green becoming the starting QB), the Broncos’ rushing attack has exploded, averaging 6.9 yds/carry and 316 yds/game over the last 2 weeks. Meanwhile, Air Force’s rush defense is ranked 79^th in yds allowed/carry (FBS competition).

While the Bronco defense has been impressive this season so far (2^nd in yds/game), they, too, have faced an easy schedule to date (114^th per PFF). Despite the added preparation the bye week gives, the Air Force triple-option attack will pose a unique challenge that will be unlike anything Boise has seen. One stat that shows how tough of an assignment the unique Air Force offense is: the Falcons have 14 plays of 40+ yards, tied for second-best in the country. One or two missed defensive assignments against this tricky offense would cement this over in a heartbeat.

Vanderbilt (+14) at Missouri

This spread is way too large. Vanderbilt has had some lopsided losses as of late, but keep in mind they have played the toughest schedule in the country (Georgia, Ole Miss, and Alabama over the past three weeks, plus an earlier OOC game against Wake Forest). Missouri does not sport the same explosive offense (94^th in PPG, 89^th in yds/play) or dominating defense (57^th in PPG/allowed, 42^nd yds allowed/play) as Georgia or Alabama. Consequently, Vanderbilt should and will move the ball.

In games like this, maximizing opportunities and minimizing mistakes often make the difference. When Vanderbilt gets in the red zone, they score on 95% of their trips. Conversely, Missouri scores on 74% of its trips, good for 110^th in the country. On the minimizing mistakes side, Vanderbilt also has the edge in terms of penalties/game (26^th vs. 112^th) and turnovers (Missouri is 123^rd in the country on interception rate while AJ Swann has not thrown an interception this season). Finally, Vanderbilt is one of the slowest teams in the country, taking 28.6 seconds to snap the ball between plays, potentially shortening the game tremendously. At the very least, Vanderbilt should stay within 2 touchdowns against Missouri.

3-Leg College Football Parlay

• LSU -2 vs. Ole Miss (–115)
• Boise State at Air Force o47.5 (–110)
• Vanderbilt +14 at Missouri (–105)

3-Leg Parlay Odds: +596 on BetMGM Sportsbook

View 5-star bets and historical prop performance by players with our Prop Bet Analyzer >>

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced sports betting strategies — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.

The post College Football Week 8 Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions (2022) appeared first on BettingPros.