College Football Week 9 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Middle Tennessee vs. UTEP (2022)

Oct 27, 2022 - 2:28 PM

Let’s take a look at the College Football Week 9 odds, picks, and predictions for this week’s game: Middle Tennessee vs. UTEP.

And check out the rest of our game previews for Week 9:

• Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State
• Notre Dame vs. Syracuse
• Ohio State vs. Penn State
• Florida vs. Georgia
• Kentucky vs. Tennessee
• Michigan State vs. Michigan
• Stanford vs. UCLA
• Iowa State vs. Oklahoma
• Arizona State vs. Colorado
• Charlotte vs. Rice
• Louisville vs. Wake Forest
• North Carolina vs. Pittsburgh
• Texas A&M vs. Ole Miss
• Iowa vs. Northwestern
• Miami (OH) vs. Akron
• TCU vs. West Virginia
• Illinois vs. Nebraska

Check out Thor Nystrom’s Week 9 Best Bets >>

College Football Week 9 Odds, Picks & Prediction: Middle Tennessee vs. UTEP

A month ago, Middle Tennessee was the toast of college football after upsetting Miami to start 3-1. Since then, the Blue Raiders have lost three-straight. The market no longer trusts them.

But in all three, MTSU played a strong G5 team. The Blue Raiders didn’t match up well with any of the three. MTSU’s offense is small and shifty. It wants to beat you with timing and in space, because it can’t beat you in a phonebooth.

On defense, MTSU is solid against the run, but gives up oodles of completions in the passing game in exchange for taking away explosive plays. Opponents with efficient passing games on offense that don’t give up explosive passes on defense give MTSU trouble. This is why, for instance, we were on WKU -8.5 in MTSU’s last game before the bye. WKU won 35-17.

UTEP is not that kind of team. The Miners’ passing offense – No. 97 success rate, No. 122 completion percentage – is just as inefficient as MTSU’s pass defense, nullifying the Blue Raiders’ biggest defensive weakness.

And UTEP’s defensive bugaboo of allowing explosive passing plays – No. 111 defensive passing marginal explosiveness – leaves it exposed to the huge aerial gains MTSU feasts on (No. 44). UTEP gives up completions in bunches, and it isn’t great at tackling in space (No. 78).

MTSU gets on track by knocking off UTEP as a small road ‘dog. Not only is this a matchup that suits the Blue Raiders, but my system says the wrong team is favored.

The pick: MTSU +2

Prop Bet Analyzer: View top rated props and historical prop performance by player >>

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