Bogman’s College Football Week 10 Best Bets & Predictions (2022)

Nov 3, 2022 - 3:18 PM

Coming off a .500 week of college football gambling, Scott Bogman returns with his Week 10 best bets and predictions.

Week 9 results: 5-5

2022 Season Record: 53-37

Check out Thor Nystrom’s Week 8 College Football Power Rankings >>

#15 Penn State (-14) @ Indiana

This line jumped out to not only myself but seemingly the betting public, too, as over 90% of the cash and tickets are on the Nittany Lions as of Wednesday evening. Last week, we saw a rough but competitive game from Penn State against a National Championship contender, Ohio State. Edge defender J.T. Tuimoloau tore apart the Penn State OL and had two sacks, two INTs, a strip sack with a fumble recovery and a TD! The offensive line is an issue but not one that Indiana has can take advantage of as they have no one really in the same neighborhood as Ohio State. Breaking the DL grades from PFF down for the Edge and Interior defensive linemen for Ohio State and Indiana shows it clearly. Of the 18 players (nine for each team) that have logged at least 50 pass rush snaps for each team, Ohio State would have the top eight in Win Percentage with all but one over 10%. Indiana has no players with a win percentage over 10 and grades out as a bottom-10 pass rush team.  

Penn State is ranked, but I wouldn’t consider them a top-tier team. The two teams that were supposed to beat them did (Ohio State and Michigan), and they had some struggles with Northwestern. Fumbles and time of possession were the issues in those games, and I don’t think Indiana is the team that can take advantage of those. Indiana currently has a -4 turnover margin and ranks dead last in TOP.  

Penn State could replace starting QB Sean Clifford as he has been hit-or-miss, but the weapons around him have been outstanding. Duel Freshman RBs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen lead a rushing offense that averages 170 rushing yards per game. NFL prospect WR Parker Washington is coming off his best performance of the season, putting up 11-179-1 against Ohio State. In their six wins so far this season, Penn State’s average margin of victory is 21 points. Penn State is probably a little overrated, but Indiana is miserable, and they have dropped four in a row. This one won’t be close; Penn State rolls!

Arizona (+18.5) @ #14 Utah AND UNDER 68.5

This one might look surprising, but two things are pushing me towards the under in this game. The first one is the massive amount of injuries that Utah has been hit with on offense. Starting QB Cam Rising missed last week, and apparently, the coaching staff didn’t know until 30 minutes before kickoff that he didn’t feel healthy enough to go. Backup QB Bryson Barnes performed admirably for the Utes in the 21-17 win over Washington State, but that was the lowest total of the season for Utah, the only performance under 32 points since the Week 1 loss to Florida. RB Tavion Thomas also didn’t play against Washington State, and backup RB Micah Bernard only saw three carries after getting banged up the previous week.

The Utes also went from one of the best TE duos in the country to start the season with Brant Kuithe (OFS with a knee injury) and Dalton Kincaid down to the third-string TE after Kincaid went down on the winning TE catch against Washington State. Kincaid missing might be the most significant piece as HC Kyle Whittington spoke to ‘tweaking’ the offense and making the WRs more prevalent should the starting TE miss this game. I expect Cam Rising to play, but I doubt he’ll be at 100%. Whittington gave no update on the RBs, so I don’t know who to expect there, but my guess would be a combo of Bernard and Freshman Jaylon Glover, who had 20 carries last week. Utah is a good team, and Arizona gives up a lot of points, but these are a lot of injuries for any offense to deal with all at the same time.

Arizona has been unbelievably impressive in the passing game so far this season, ranking third behind only Tennessee and Washington in passing yards per game. QB Jayden de Laura is fourth in the country in passing yards, sixth in passing TDs, and top 40 in QB rating. WR Jacob Cowing is top 10 in receiving yards, and fellow WR Dorian Singer is top 15. My issue with Arizona is that while they are a great passing team, they are a little one-dimensional as they rank 85th in rushing, and Utah has a strong pass defense. Utah grades out as a top-25 pass defense, according to PFF. The only team that has gone over 300 passing yards against them all season is USC. Utah is allowing an average of 209 yards per game (185 PG if we took away the USC game) and has allowed only 12 TDs, and has 10 INTs. Arizona has gone under 300 yards passing only twice against P5 teams this year, and they were both losses and happen to be the two lowest totals they have had this season (17 points with 276 passing yards against Miss State and 22 points with 241 passing yards against Oregon). I think we get something similar this week against a banged-up Utah team that will have a tough time scoring. Arizona did not beat the spread against Miss State or Oregon, but I think with Utah being less than 100% offensively should they be up late, they will probably put backups in late to preserve the starters. Arizona is no longer a team that will get drummed out of many games, so I see this one somewhere in the neighborhood of 35-24 in Utah’s favor, and that would hit both Arizona plus the points and keep our under!

#16 Illinois (-16) vs. Michigan State UNDER 42

What a surprise, a Big Ten under! We threaded the needle with Illinois last week with a win and an under, and Illinois didn’t disappoint, dominating time of possession and forcing Nebraska to throw. I kind of feel like Nebraska and Michigan State are the Spiderman meme right now, but Nebraska is statistically and grade-wise slightly better than Michigan State. The Spartans have performed better, though they both stand at 3-5. Illinois will continue dominating on the ground and in time of possession for sure in this game.

The biggest stat that jumps out to me for this game is the aforementioned time of possession. Illinois is coming in at third in the country, averaging just over 35 minutes, and Michigan State is just under 24 and a half minutes, so I would expect that to be pretty close to the final. Illinois is averaging just under 200 yards rushing, and while they are top 15 in pace of play (78 offensive plays per game), the Illini are 90th in yards per play which adds up to 79th in points per drive. This combo not only has Illinois at 7-1 on the season but also 6-2 ATS, and only two of their eight games have hit the Over. RB Chase Brown is still leading the nation in rushing attempts and yards, and his Heisman Odds dropped from 50-1 to 40-1 after his 32-149-1 plus a receiving TD last week against Nebraska.

The defensive side for Illinois should really dominate, and I’m not sure that Michigan State will score at all. Speaking of the Spiderman meme, Illinois is really close to Michigan defensively in statistics and PFF grades. Last week State could only muster one touchdown against Michigan, only converted two of 11 third down opportunities, and held the ball for less than 20 minutes. Illinois is first or second in scoring, passing and their rushing defense is top 15 in sacks, only allowing more than one touchdown twice this season. Michigan State possessing the ball more than expected would probably help our under as they are 124th in pace. My only fear for the over is Illinois getting to 35 points and Michigan State putting up 10. The only game Illinois has hit 35 points in was the 38 they put up in Week 1 against Wyoming. Since then, they have scored over 30 only twice, once against Wisconsin and once against FCS Chattanooga. This feels like a 28-3 or 28-10 type of game. I expect Illinois to continue their dominance over the Big Ten and slow-cook the Spartans with the boring run-first and strong defense method HC Bret Bielema loves!

Other Bets I Like:

• Georgia Southern vs. South Alabama UNDER 60.5
• #17 North Carolina -7.5 @ Virginia
• Auburn +13 vs. Mississippi State
• #7 TCU -9 vs. Texas Tech
• North Texas vs. FIU UNDER 62.5

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