College Football Week 10 Picks & Predictions (2022)

Nov 4, 2022 - 11:00 AM

Well, we had a rough weekend going 4-6 ATS with only one ML underdog winner (Notre Dame), but at one point, we were set up to win our ML underdog parlay and cash on San Diego State ML. Alas, Pittsburgh led 24-14 and then gave up 28 unanswered points; San Diego State led 28-10 and gave up 22 unanswered points. Underdogs went 2-3 ATS (one ML winner), and favorites went 2-3 ATS (4-1 ML). This brings our ATS record to 25-20-1 with eleven ML underdog winners.

Check out Thor Nystrom’s Week 10 College Football Power Rankings >>

Overview

The thought process for anyone reading this for the first time is simple: We target teams with a top-30 rush rate. We will look at six main advanced defensive statistics to measure how successful the matchup is: Defensive Stuff Rate, Defensive Line Yards, Defensive Rush Success Rate, Defensive Power Success Rate, Defensive IsoPPP (explosiveness), and PFF Rush Defense.

There are several angles at play:

• An underdog with a high rush rate vs. an opponent who is below average in the four main defensive rush categories. They will have the opportunity to limit possessions and control the game script.
• A favorite with a top-30 rush rate vs. an opponent who is stout against the run. They will be forced to employ a game plan that does not fit their overall identity. A favorite’s plan B strategy will never be as dangerous as its preferred method of offense.
• An underdog with a top-30 rush rate vs. a stout defense. The favorite in this scenario has the opportunity to blow a game out of reach and leave the underdog behind the proverbial 8-ball.
• A favorite with a top-30 rush rate vs. an opponent that is lackluster in the aforementioned categories. In this scenario, we prefer the favorite to be, at most, a 10-point favorite.

The reason for this thinking is that high rush rates will always lead to fewer possessions and overall points. The overall margin for error will be slimmer. This allows us to simplify the handicapping perspective and focus on unbalanced teams. Here’s a summary of the teams we are looking for.

• Underdogs with a top-30 rush rate vs. below-average defenses
• Underdogs with a stout defense vs. a top-30 rush rate favorite
• Favorites with a stout defense vs. a top 30 rush rate underdog
• Favorites with a top-30 rush rate (not greater than -10) vs. a below-average defense

Glossary

• Stuff Rate: tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage
• Def Line Yards: Yards directly influenced by the defensive line
• Def Rush Success Rate: 50% of yards needed on 1st down, 70% of yards needed on 2nd down, and 100% on 3rd and 4th down.
• Rush IsoPPP: Explosive rush plays allowed (15 yards or more)
• Def Power Success Rate: the percentage of running plays on 3rd or 4th down from 2 yards or less in which an offense either converted into a 1st down or scored a TD. 1st and 2nd down and goal plays within the 2-yard line are also included.
• PFF Rush Defense: PFF film-graded metric

 

Let’s dive into the nine games we will target this week.

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Oregon State @ Washington

Oregon State

• 22nd Rush Rate

Washington

• 77th Def Stuff Rate
• 88th Def Line Yards
• 51st Power Success Rate
• 75th Def Rush Success Rate
• 47th Def Rush IsoPPP
• 90th PFF Rush Def

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Air Force @ Army

Air Force

• 2nd Rush Rate

Army

• 129th Def Stuff Rate
• 130th Def Line Yards
• 126th Power Success Rate
• 131st Def Rush Success Rate
• 34th Def Rush IsoPPP
• 127th PFF Rush Def

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Baylor @ Oklahoma

Baylor

• 29th Rush Rate

Oklahoma

• 85th Def Stuff Rate
• 94th Def Line Yards
• 59th Power Success Rate
• 63rd Def Rush Success Rate
• 107th Def Rush IsoPPP
• 67th PFF Rush Def

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Syracuse @ Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh

• 36th Rush Rate

Syracuse

• 120th Def Stuff Rate
• 112th Def Line Yards
• 47th Power Success Rate
• 119th Def Rush Succes Rate
• 19th Def Rush IsoPPP
• 93rd PFF Rush Def

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Liberty @ Arkansas

Arkansas

• 7th Rush Rate

Liberty

• 15th Def Stuff Rate
• 7th Def Line Yards
• 35th Power Success Rate
• 9th Def Rush Success Rate
• 92nd Def Rush IsoPPP
• 24th PFF Rush Def

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UNLV @ San Diego State

San Diego State

• 20th Rush Rate

UNLV

• 126th Def Stuff Rate
• 129th Def Line Yards
• 106th Power Success Rate
• 129th Def Rush Success Rate
• 12th Def Rush IsoPPP
• 50th PFF Rush Def

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BYU @ Boise State

Boise State

• 32nd Rush Rate

BYU

• 111th Def Stuff Rate
• 126th Def Line Yards
• 8th Power Success Rate
• 117th Def Rush Success Rate
• 49th Def Rush IsoPPP
• 126th PFF Rush Def

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Auburn @ Mississippi State

Auburn

• 31st Rush Rate

Mississippi State

• 33rd Stuff Rate
• 45th Def Line Yards
• 21st Power Success Rate
• 88th Def Rush Success Rate
• 90th Def Rush IsoPPP
• 102nd PFF Rush Def

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Clemson @ Notre Dame

Notre Dame

• 16th Rush Rate

Clemson

• 12th Stuff Rate
• 26th Def Line Yards
• 11th Power Success Rate
• 43rd Def Rush Success Rate
• 18th Def Rush IsoPPP
• 17th PFF Rush Def

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The Bets

Here’s the breakdown of the nine games we are going to target this week

• Oregon State (+4.5), Baylor (+3.5), and Auburn (+12.5) are the three underdogs with top-30 rush-rates
• Liberty (+13.5) is the only underdog with a stout defense facing a top-30 rush rate
• Air Force (-7.5), Pittsburgh (-3.5), San Diego State (-6.5), and Boise State (-7.5) are the four favorites with top-30 rush rates
• Clemson (-3.5) is the only favorite with a stout defense facing a top-30 rush rate

We have some familiar teams in this column and several fresh faces. Liberty will be a true test of our process here. They rank extremely well across every advanced statistic but will see a huge jump in competition vs. Arkansas. The Liberty performed against BYU earlier this year gives me confidence that they can hold their own. There is also the angle that Arkansas will overlook Liberty as they come off a huge win against Auburn and are scheduled to face a top-15 LSU next week.

Auburn will look to turn the corner after firing Bryan Harsin. Carnell “Cadillac” Williams will take over as interim, and we could see even more of a run-heavy approach. This will help to shorten the game and hopefully wear down Mississippi State. Auburn getting 12.5 points is too many.

Military academy games are always tough and filled with emotion, but we cannot ignore how horrendous Army is in every single defensive rushing metric. Air Force should have their way in every facet of the game. If Air Force plays disciplined and avoids any unnecessary turnovers, they should cruise to a double-digit victory.

Lastly, Clemson goes to South Bend to keep their playoff hopes alive. Notre Dame has a vanilla-style offense with quarterback Drew Pyne at the helm. Running the ball up the middle 45 times isn’t going to cut it against the Clemson stout defense. Clemson will force Pyne to beat them, and I’m confident he will come up short.

This week we will break away from the round-robin parlay and go with a couple of ML parlays with a combination of our underdogs and favorites.

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Favorite ML Parlay

• Air Force ML
• Pittsburgh ML
• Clemson ML
• Boise State ML
• San Diego State ML

 

This parlay pays +465 and gives you five favorites in optimal situations.

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Underdog Teaser (3pts)

• Liberty +16.5
• Oregon State +7.5
• Baylor +6.5
• Auburn +15.5

 

This teaser pays +565 and gives you exposure to underdogs with an added cushion.

Remember, you can interchange the underdogs or change the favorites to differentiate the bet.  This is just an example of a way to attack it.

You can find me on Twitter @goldendomer622 if you have any questions about the process or comments in general. Good luck with your bets this weekend!!!!

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