College Football Week 12 Picks & Predictions (2022)

Nov 17, 2022 - 4:39 PM

Last week we found ourselves at a crossroads backing numerous favorites over 10 points. This was found to be a huge mistake. We should have stuck to our system and stayed within our guidelines. Nevertheless, we went 6-7 ATS last week with one underdog ML winner. The underdogs easily could have been 2-0, but we lost South Florida on a 2pt conversion attempt in a game that was already decided.

Let’s look at the positive. Favorites under the 10-point threshold went 4-2 and 5-1 on the ML. Favorites who were favored by more than 10 points went 1-4 ATS and 3-2 on the ML. Now, this is obviously a small sample, but it brings us back to our convictions of not laying more than 10 pts when focusing on these rush-heavy teams. Our highlighted teams essentially played exactly as expected. Florida and Oregon State destroyed two run-funnel defenses, South Florida hung with SMU to the final whistle, and Auburn controlled the vast majority of the game against Texas A&M. This brings our record to 36-31-1 ATS with fourteen ML underdog winners.

2022: 66-53-2 ATS (55.5%) | 2014-2021: 706-620-17 ATS (53.2%)

Overview

The thought process for anyone reading this for the first time is simple: We target teams with a top-30 rush rate. We will look at six main advanced defensive statistics to measure how successful the matchup is: Defensive Stuff Rate, Defensive Line Yards, Defensive Rush Success Rate, Defensive Power Success Rate, Defensive IsoPPP (explosiveness), and PFF Rush Defense.

There are several angles at play:

• An underdog with a high rush rate vs. an opponent who is below average in the four main defensive rush categories. They will have the opportunity to limit possessions and control the game script.
• A favorite with a top-30 rush rate vs. an opponent who is stout against the run. They will be forced to employ a game plan that does not fit their overall identity. A favorite’s plan B strategy will never be as dangerous as its preferred method of offense.
• An underdog with a top-30 rush rate vs. a stout defense. The favorite in this scenario has the opportunity to blow a game out of reach and leave the underdog behind the proverbial 8-ball.
• A favorite with a top-30 rush rate vs. an opponent that is lackluster in the aforementioned categories. In this scenario, we prefer the favorite to be, at most, a 10-point favorite.

The reason for this thinking is that high rush rates will always lead to fewer possessions and overall points. The overall margin for error will be slimmer. This allows us to simplify the handicapping perspective and focus on unbalanced teams. Here’s a summary of the teams we are looking for.

• Underdogs with a top-30 rush rate vs. below-average defenses
• Underdogs with a stout defense vs. a top-30 rush rate favorite
• Favorites with a stout defense vs. a top 30 rush rate underdog
• Favorites with a top-30 rush rate (not greater than -10) vs. a below-average defense

Glossary

• Stuff Rate: tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage
• Def Line Yards: Yards directly influenced by the defensive line
• Def Rush Success Rate: 50% of yards needed on 1st down, 70% of yards needed on 2nd down, and 100% on 3rd and 4th down.
• Rush IsoPPP: Explosive rush plays allowed (15 yards or more)
• Def Power Success Rate: the percentage of running plays on 3rd or 4th down from 2 yards or less in which an offense either converted into a 1st down or scored a TD. 1st and 2nd down and goal plays within the 2-yard line are also included.
• PFF Rush Defense: PFF film-graded metric

Let’s dive into the eight games we will target this week.

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UMASS @ Texas A&M

UMass

• 11th Rush Rate

Texas A&M

• 31st Def Stuff Rate
• 59th Def Line Yards
• 65th Power Success Rate
• 66th Def Rush Success Rate
• 75th Def Rush IsoPPP
• 128th PFF Rush Def

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Wisconsin @ Nebraska

Wisconsin

• 21st Rush Rate

Nebraska

• 92nd Def Stuff Rate
• 102nd Def Line Yards
• 97th Power Success Rate
• 122nd Def Rush Success Rate
• 40th Def Rush IsoPPP
• 121st PFF Rush Def

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Illinois @ Michigan

Michigan

• 9th Rush Rate

Illinois

• 23rd Def Stuff Rate
• 15th Def Line Yards
• 3rd Power Success Rate
• 2nd Def Rush Success Rate
• 109th Def Rush IsoPPP
• 4th PFF Rush Def

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Oregon State @ Arizona State

Oregon State

• 19th Rush Rate

Arizona State

• 100th Def Stuff Rate
• 111th Def Line Yards
• 118th Power Success Rate
• 117th Def Rush Success Rate
• 102nd Def Rush IsoPPP
• 111th PFF Rush Def

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NC State @ Louisville

Louisville

• 35th Rush Rate

NC State

• 2nd Def Stuff Rate
• 4th Def Line Yards
• 2nd Power Success Rate
• 6th Def Rush Success Rate
• 125th Def Rush IsoPPP
• 15th PFF Rush Def

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Western Kentucky @ Auburn

Auburn

• 18th Rush Rate

Western Kentucky

• 103rd Def Stuff Rate
• 106th Def Line Yards
• 102nd Power Success Rate
• 78th Def Rush Success Rate
• 32nd Def Rush IsoPPP
• 69th PFF Rush Def

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Iowa @ Minnesota

Minnesota

• 4th Rush Rate

Iowa

• 52nd Def Stuff Rate
• 10th Def Line Yards
• 61st Power Success Rate
• 31st Def Rush Success Rate
• 2nd Def Rush IsoPPP
• 9th PFF Rush Def

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Ole Miss @ Arkansas

Arkansas

• 12th Rush Rate

Ole Miss

• 95th Def Stuff Rate
• 107th Def Line Yards
• 92nd Power Success Rate
• 95th Def Rush Success Rate
• 5th Def Rush IsoPPP
• 63rd PFF Rush Def

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The Bets

Here’s the breakdown of the eight games we are going to target this week:

• UMASS (+33.5) and Arkansas (+2.5) are the two underdogs with a top-30 rush rate
• Illinois (+17.5), Iowa (+2.5), and NC State (+3.5) are the three underdogs with stout defenses facing top-30 rush-rate opponents
• Wisconsin (-10.5), Oregon State (-7.5), and Auburn (-6.5) are the three favorites with top-30 rush rates

This feels more like how this column usually pans out. We have intriguing value spots and familiar teams that excel in these exact situations. Illinois, Auburn, and Oregon State have made this column three of the last four weeks.

Illinois had a setback last week against Purdue. It seemed they were looking ahead and just didn’t match up well with that pass-heavy attack. Michigan looks pretty much the same as they have looked every year in the Harbaugh era. They will run the ball right at you, and if that doesn’t work, then they will run it again right at you until the game is over. Illinois has faired incredibly well against rush-heavy approaches this year by besting Wisconsin and Minnesota by a combined score of 60-24. This defense is getting way too many points at 17.5.

Oregon State is arguably facing the worst rush defense in the entire NCAA. Arizona State is the only team to rank bottom 30 in the six advanced rushing statistics. I’m never a fan of laying points with favorites, but Oregon State has the potential to rush for 300 yards or more in this fortuitous matchup.

Arkansas will return dynamic QB KJ Jefferson this Saturday. He is integral in their rush-heavy scheme (425 rushing yards and 6 TDs). Ole Miss is the perfect example of a run-funnel defense. Ole Miss ranks bottom 40 in every advanced rushing statistic except IsoPPP (explosiveness). Remember, as we said last week, run-funnel defenses are the equivalent of prevent-pass defenses in a two-minute drill. Arkansas should be able to extend drives with little resistance and control the entirety of the game script.

I know you are like, “UMASS +33.5? Why are we even entertaining this?” Well, this Texas A&M team has shown little to no heart and is definitely going to look past UMASS to playoff contender LSU next week and try to play spoiler. Also, it is alarming to have a team stacked with so much recruiting talent somehow rank 128th in PFF Rush Def. UMASS is definitely worth a flyer bet.

This is an interesting week, and we will look to attack the slate with a combination of ML Parlays and small teasers.

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ML Parlay/Underdog Spread

• Oregon State ML
• Wisconsin ML
• Arkansas +2.5
• Iowa + 2.5

This brings our odds to +511. You can buy points on Arkansas and Iowa if you want more cushion, but remember, it will reduce your payout.

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Favorite Bet

• Illinois +17.5
• Auburn -6.5

This is a classic two-team parlay at +256. Illinois is getting way too many points for their caliber of defense, and Auburn should have a field day running against an overmatched Western Kentucky defense.

You can find me on Twitter @goldendomer622 if you have any questions about the process or comments in general. Tune into our new article geared towards totals that will be released for the first week. Good luck with your bets this weekend!!!!

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