Roster Math: Pre-Portal Analysis

Nov 29, 2022 - 2:30 PM

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In the immortal words of Ray Arnold, chief engineer of Jurassic Park:

This portal season will probably be one of the worst of the very young NIL/one-time transfer portal era. Why? Several reasons:

1.) We’re only two years into this change in college football and there haven’t been any “horror stories” of players getting left out, not getting playing time promised, or not receiving the money promised. Those stories will happen. They will be shared. But there’s not enough right now and, in an open market that hasn’t had a chance to figure itself out, there will be plenty of players shooting their shot for greener fields.

2.) The 2020 recruiting class is completing their third year and, more or less, know what they are. That class had no in-person visits or camps or evaluations and some high school teams didn’t even play football that season. As such, there are really bad players on really good teams and vice versa and both player and coach are realizing this.

3.) The ‘20 and ‘21 recruiting classes are now the bulk of starters for any team and they just watched their younger ‘22 brothers sign with NIL opportunities that are shared. Those older guys would like to secure the bag and didn’t have the opportunity to do so (or, at least, openly) and are working to rectify that.

We’ve already seen the first cracks in the dam in Columbia with plenty more players certainly joining the deluge as we get closer to December 5th. Let’s take quick stock of the roster as it currently stands; who’s currently here, who’s scheduled to leave, who could leave, and positions that need portal additions.

Just remember: every player is a free agent. No one is safe. Every school is tampering with players and if they aren’t then they are bad at their job.

Ready? Here we go:

Quarterbacks

Current roster spots: 2

Graduated: 0

Possible Graduated: 0

Portal departures: Tyler Macon

Incoming: Gabarri Johnson

I’m not convinced this position group is done. After the way this staff managed Horn I’m not certain he’s willing to stick around. And, given the official departure of Macon, I fully believe Drink and friends will be hitting the portal once again this offseason for an addition.

Running Backs

Current roster spots: 7

Graduated: 0

Possible Graduated: 1

Portal departures: 0

Incoming: Jamal Roberts

I’m adding Cody Schrader on here since he’ll be on scholarship starting this upcoming January. This position group might lose Nate Peat (who was honored on Senior Day and took a rock) but he does technically have another year to play. This group could see some noticeable portal losses given the fact that a walk-on took the vast majority of the snaps over three guys who will be entering their fourth year with the team. Even with the incoming Jamal Roberts, I’d anticipate portal additions here as well.

Wide Receivers

Current roster spots: 8

Graduated: Barrett Banister

Possible Graduated: Tauskie Dove

Portal departures: Dominic Lovett (probably)

Incoming: Daniel Blood, Marquis Johnson, Joshua Manning

Yes, I still have Dom Lovett on the roster. No, I don’t think he’ll stay, but he’s not officially official re: transferring away. Even if he, Dove, and Banister leave, Missouri still has five young, talented receivers to utilize with three younger guys coming in. I would be surprised to see a portal addition to this group, especially since Burden is definitely coming back next year.

Tight Ends

Current roster spots: 4

Graduated: 0

Possible Graduated: 0

Portal departures: 0

Incoming: Brett Norfleet

The youngest and most untested position group of the ‘22 squad began with a walk-on and transfer taking the majority of the snaps and ended with a redshirt freshman being the main focus. I don’t think this position group is SEC-quality right now and could also see one of these guys going elsewhere. There weren’t a ton of useful tight ends on the market last year so I could see the staff bringing in at least one to pair with incoming freshman Brett Norfleet.

Offensive Line

Current roster spots: 18

Graduated: 2

Possible Graduated: 7*

Portal departures: 0

Incoming: Logan Reichert

Powell and Wood have exhausted their eligibility. White will have exhausted his eligibility as well if the NCAA doesn’t grant him a medical waiver. Delgado, Foster, Lawrence, and Taylor could also be done as well, though Delgado and Foster have both mentioned their desire to come back in ‘23. Even with all of that though, I see this position group as the #1 portal in-take position for Mizzou and also one with a high potential for portal exodus. The line has been a story of diminishing returns over the years and it was clear that guys were pushed into service well before some of them were ready. Even with Foster, Delgado, Tollison, and White returning, I’d anticipate 2-3 portal additions to provide depth or even starting experience.

Defensive Ends

Current roster spots: 6

Graduated: 3

Possible Graduated: 4

Portal departures: Travion Ford

Incoming: Jakhai Lang and Serigne Tounkara

The offensive line is the #1 portal-in opportunity but defensive end is a very close #2. Hopper, Coleman, and McGuire are all done and Jeffcoat very well could be as well. Even if Jeffcoat does somehow come back, that leaves three edge rushers with two freshmen coming in, and I’m not totally sold on the younger edges sticking around. Blue-chipper D.J. Wesolak is currently a linebacker and could switch back to edge but that’s certainly not a guarantee, and even then he would only be a second-year player. Like the d-tackles last year, expect a “throw numbers at the problem” approach to replacing the surprising amount of lost talent here.

Defensive Tackles

Current roster spots: 10

Graduated: 0

Possible Graduated: 5

Portal departures: 0

Incoming: 0

I have no read on what the tackles are going to do. Maybe they all come back! Maybe only Robinson leaves! Maybe the youngsters bolt! I have no clue! There’s a lot of talent that was added via portal last year so I wouldn’t anticipate any portal activity this year unless they suffer from some surprise losses.

Linebackers

Current roster spots: 10

Graduated: 0

Possible Graduated: 1

Portal departures: 0

Incoming: Brayshawn Littlejohn, Triston Newson

With Chad Bailey and Chuck Hicks coming back, the linebacking corps is extremely full, and that’s even if Ty’Ron Hopper declares for the NFL (which he probably will). I think this group could see some portal losses, but even then, there are a lot of guys here for only two spots on the field. My guess is that, unless there’s another Hopper-like linebacker out there, the staff will stay put here.

Cornerbacks

Current roster spots: 4

Graduated: 0

Possible Graduated: 0

Portal departures: L.J. Hewitt, Davion Sistrunk, D.J. Jackson

Incoming: Nicholas DeLoach, Shamar McNeil

This is another problem area. This group lost three guys to the portal during the season and now both starters are making overt hints that they’re leaving, either for the NFL or NIL opportunities. Even while playing a four-man rotation this year, trying that again with two incoming freshman is a recipe for disaster, so I anticipate at least one other corner being added via portal.

Safeties

Current roster spots: 9

Graduated: 1

Possible Graduated: 2

Portal departures: 0

Incoming: Phillip Roche

Martez Manuel is for sure done, 4th-year junior Jalani Williams was honored on senior day, and Jaylon Carlies might go to the NFL but has hinted at possibly coming back. A few others have maybe put their name in the portal but no official reporting confirms this. There are a lot of guys here for the three safety spots but the two-deep could be fairly empty if all of these “maybes” actually bolt. Depending on those that are wavering, I could see 1-2 being added via portal...or none if those on the fence all come back.

Specialists

Current roster spots: 4

Graduated: 2

Possible Graduated: 0

Portal departures: 0

Incoming: Blake Craig

A punter and holder leave but there’s still a kicker and holder on scholarship, as well as a punter who is not. The question here is one I never anticipated asking: is Missouri’s kicker going to forgo his last two seasons to enter the NFL Draft? It’s certainly not outside the realm of possibility! I anticipate Stonehouse going on scholarship next year, as well as Craig, so given the fact that there will be three specialists on scholarship I don’t anticipate any portal additions here. Unless there’s somehow a kicker on the market who makes 90% of his field goals.

Conclusion

The era of long-term development is over. Embrace the short-term build! Missouri might be able to hang on to more guys than I anticipate...or they might see a mass exodus as players attempt to maximize their earnings and see more playing time. It’s going to suck because, in the beginning, it’ll only be players leaving your favorite team. However, I guarantee there are guys out there who will happily come to Mizzou and play and that will bring it’s own form of happiness. This is just the start of a long, bumpy ride. Buckle in and get ready.