Giving Away Money 2022: SEC Championship Game

Dec 1, 2022 - 5:42 PM

Yawn. Georgia doing Georgia things to one of the biggest frauds in recent SEC history.

Georgia gets to eviscerate another also-ran, claiming Kirby’s second SEC title, and most probably another CFP Title. They’re the best team in the country, have been most of the year, and the only thing that has hindered them is their own inattention and/or boredom. Admittedly, they do play a bit ragged away from Athens, but it’s not as though Atlanta is exactly a true road trip.

If Vegas Insider’s historical numbers are right, this looks like it is the 2nd largest spread in SECCG history, and just the 11th in DD, with the favorite covering 6 of them (Alabama covered the largest spread (-23.5) vs. UF in 2016 54-16). It should be noted though that UGA hasn’t had the best record in this game; losing 4 of 7 overall. In some fairness though, they were underdogs in four of those games. When favored, the Dawgs have been better: winning two of three (last year was the outlier), and covering both.

Can we expect the same Saturday?

SECCG: Mercedes Dome: LSU +17.5 vs UGA

LSU is a terrible matchup in this game. They do some things well, overall, but it’s one of the weakest SEC West contenders since the Bad Ole’ Days when Arkansas and Mississippi State were making appearance.

They do have one of the best passing defenses in the country, because it does exactly what Alabama’s attempts — only they succeed: Keep the ball in front of defenders, get teams off the field, force turnovers. They’re among the best in the country at all of them. The issue is that while Georgia has talent at the WR spot, it’s not the WRs that scare you on this team: it’s the quick passing game to Bowers and to the backs; Bowers especially is a mismatch against literally anyone in the country.

Defensively, the real weakness for this LSU team is the running game. When the ‘Bama / LSU tilt rolled around, I noted that the way to beat this team is with patience. You line up, shove the ball down their throat, drive the field, make the DBs cheat, then beat them over the top. Tennessee has given you this playbook. FSU has given you this playbook. Even Galaxy Brain Jimbo Fisher followed the gameplan. And while Bill O’Brien’s stupid ass can’t stick to a successful script, there’s simply no reason to think that Monken will not: What LSU has problems stopping the most is in fact what the Bulldogs do best.

Offensively, LSU is really on the horns of the bull too. Jayden Daniels is a trash passer, relying on YOLO throws opened up by his legs. That works against teams that can’t cover a fart in church (not naming any names here), or that have problems tackling at the linebacker spot (if you think this is about you, it probably is), or that have soft defensive ends overwhelmed with piss running down their legs by power running (again, you know exactly who you are).

Godspeed doing any of that against UGA, with the best front front seven in the entire country. They’re going to spy Jayden, bottle up Emery, control the edges, and make Daniels beat him with his “arm.”

LOL. Godspeed with that.

Did I also mention that UGA has the Conference’s best special teams, and that LSU has among its worst?

Then, you add in that while UGA has been bored this season, when they want to turn it on, or are motivated to do so, they are eminently capable of doing it. They also are very good ATS: 8-4. LSU is a miserable road team that’s not covered yet away from Death Valley. And why would they? This is a Tigers team far closer to 7-5 than 9-3; Music City, not Fiesta is this team’s actual ceiling.

Georgia is going to drown LSU in the bathtub, in an outcome that is not apt to be remotely as close as the final score. Have fun in the Outback Bowl, coonasses.

Only one of six models call for it to be inside 17 points. Most are in the 19-21 point range. Let’s call it something like 37-17
UGA -19.4 composite

Photo by John Korduner/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Want some more of these? I crank the data every week, for every single game over at my companion site: (Almost) Giving Away Money. Check it out, and prosper.