San Diego State vs. Middle Tennessee: 2022 College Football Hawai’i Bowl Odds, Picks & Predictions (12/24)

Dec 21, 2022 - 8:39 AM

Here are Thor Nystrom’s best bets for the 2022 College Football Bowl Game: Hawai’i Bowl.

2022 regular season: 82-66-3 ATS (55.4%)
2022 bowls (through Dec. 18): 8-2 ATS (80%)
2022 combined: 90-68-3 ATS (56.9%)
2014-2021: 706-620-17 ATS (53.2%)

San Diego State vs. Middle Tennessee: 2022 College Football Hawai’i Bowl Odds, Picks & Predictions

Saturday, December 24 | 7:00 PM
San Diego State (-7) vs. Middle Tennessee | Total: 49.5
ATL: SDSU -4.8 | ATT: 45

Coaching News

SDSU fired OC Jeff Hecklinski in early October. The Aztecs turned things around under the direction of associate HC Jeff Horton, who took over the offensive coordinator duties.

Handicap

Middle Tennessee is an extremely matchup-specific handicap.

The Blue Raiders are one of the 20 most pass-happy teams in the nation. They spread the field and complete oodles of short passes, with the No. 11 completion rate on the No. 130 air yards per pass in the country.

To shut down MTSU’s offense, you must hinder its ability to complete those short passes at will, and you must tackle receivers immediately after the catch. MTSU’s passing offense isn’t explosive – No. 90 – if you can’t do either. See the Miami Hurricanes for an example of what happens when a defense does neither.

San Diego State’s defense is strong overall, ranking No. 34 SP+, but the Aztecs rank No. 88 in completion percentage allowed. Where the Aztecs excel is against the run – but that won’t come into play here, because MTSU only uses the run as a get-me-over option.

The Aztecs’ offense, in contrast to MTSU, is one of the 25 most run-happy in the entire nation. QB Mayden is a gifted runner, but not much of a thrower. The Aztecs cannot pass. As a team, they logged a 13/11 TD/INT rate during the regular season.

MTSU’s bad pass defense will not be tested, but MTSU’s stingy run defense – No. 34 efficiency, No. 24 explosion – profiles to severely put a crimp into what SDSU wants to do on offense.

Give me the points and give me the under, as I think Middle Tennessee will win this game outright in a low-scoring struggle.

The pick: MTSU +7 | Under 49.5

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