College Football 2022 Bowl Game Best Bets & Predictions: Saturday (12/31)

Dec 31, 2022 - 1:14 AM

Thor Nystrom provides his best bets for each 2022 Bowl Game on Saturday, December 31.

• 2022 regular season: 82-66-3 ATS (55.4%)
• 2022 bowls (through Dec. 29): 20-11-1 ATS (64.5%)
• 2022 combined: 102-77-4 ATS (56.9%)
• 2014-2021: 706-620-17 ATS (53.2%)

Sugar Bowl | New Orleans, LA

• Saturday, December 31 | 11:00 AM
• Alabama (-7) vs. Kansas State | Total: 56
• ATL: Bama -3.3 | ATT: 56.5

Alabama Inactives

• RB Trey Sanders (Transfer portal)
• WR Traeshon Holden (Transfer portal)
• WR Christian Leary (Transfer portal)
• WR JoJo Earle (Transfer portal)
• WR Aaron Anderson (Transfer portal)
• OG Javion Cohen (Transfer portal)
• OG Tanner Bowles (Transfer portal)
• OT Amari Knight (Transfer portal)
• OT Tommy Brockermeyer (Transfer portal)
• OT Damieon George Jr. (Transfer portal)
• DT Justin Eboigbe (Injury)
• LB Demouy Kennedy (Injury)
• CB Khyree Jackson (Transfer portal/Suspension)

Alabama got hit hard by transfer defections.

But the Tide got sensational news on Dec. 16 when HC Nick Saban announced no player is expected to opt out of the bowl game. The list of possibilities he was alluding to includes QB Bryce Young, RB Jahmyr Gibbs, EDGE Will Anderson, CB Malachi Moore, S Jordan Battle and S Brian Branch. Those players all took part in bowl practices and are expected to play.

OG Cohen – off to TCU – was a starter and an above-average one at that. WR Holden played 308 snaps as part of the receiver rotation and WR Earle played 223 (Nos. 4 and 6 among the WR corps in snaps). EDGE Eboigbe was the only other portal defection who played over 100 snaps in the fall (117).

DL Eboigbe and LB Kennedy are out for the season with injuries.

Kansas State Inactives

• QB Adrian Martinez (Injury)
• WR Malik Knowles (Injury)
• LB Krew Jackson (Transfer portal)
• CB Ekow Boye-Doe (Injury)
• CB TJ Smith (Transfer portal)

QB Martinez is reportedly close to a return, but he hasn’t played in over a month and is likely covered in rust. K-State will likely roll with QB Will Howard regardless. Howard is the clearly superior passer. If Martinez can play, though, watch for him as a running option in sub-packages.

WR Knowles and CB Boye-Doe both suffered injuries in the Big 12 title game. Each is expected to play, however.

CB Smith, who played 201 snaps as a rotational nickel defender, had one of the defense’s worst PFF grades (55.9). LB Jackson was a little-used backup.

Coaching news

Alabama S coach Charles Kelly left to become Colorado’s DC under Coach Prime.

Handicap

Much has been made of Alabama’s veteran stars electing to play. It’s the reason this line has shot all the way up to Bama -7 as of publication time. It feels like this has opened a window of opportunity for the under-discussed underdogs.

Kansas State is a run-first offense that has one of the 25-highest run rates in the nation. When the ‘Cats throw, they funnel lots of touches to the RBs and TEs, while taking play-action shots downfield to the boundary receivers when the numbers are on their side.

To shut down KSU’s offense, you must greatly slow down star RB Deuce Vaughn. It’s the only way. Unfortunately, Alabama doesn’t project to do this.

The Tide’s run defense – No. 81 success rate and No. 99 efficiency – is poor. Not surprisingly, K-State is very good on third-and-short, while Alabama’s defense isn’t. But it’s difficult to envision a scenario where Bama forces a bevy of the third-and-medium/longs that KSU can languish in if the Tide are unable to slow Vaughn and company.

On the other side, KSU’s very strong pass defense can address Bama star QB Bryce Young’s aerial machinations. The Tide rank No. 19 and 17, respectively, in passing success rate and efficiency. KSU’s defense ranks Nos. 29 and 28, respectively, in those categories. It’s easier to run on KSU… but Bama is as pass-happy as KSU is run-happy, and that isn’t likely to change for this one.

Even with the Tide at full strength, I think the underdog Wildcats match up well with them. This isn’t the Alabama teams of the past few years – it’s flawed, and the Wildcats have a knack for exposing the weaknesses of teams like that. KSU HC Chris Klieman is 12-6-1 ATS career in postseason games. Kansas State is a live ‘dog here.

The pick: Kansas State +7

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Music City Bowl | Nashville, TN

• Saturday, December 31 | 11:00 AM
• Iowa (-2) vs. Kentucky | Total: 31
• ATL: Iowa -5.0 | ATT: 26

Iowa Inactives

• QB Alex Padilla (Transfer portal)
• QB Spencer Petras (Injury)
• RB Gavin Williams (Transfer portal)
• WR Arland Bruce IV (Transfer portal)
• WR Keagan Johnson (Transfer portal)
• TE Sam LaPorta (Injury)
• OL Josh Volk (Transfer portal)
• LB Jestin Jacobs (Transfer portal)
• CB Cooper Dejean (Injury)
• CB Terry Roberts (Transfer portal)
• S Reggie Bracy (Transfer portal)
• S Kaevon Merriweather (Opt-out)

QB1 Petras has been shut down for the season with a shoulder injury. With QB2 Padilla also in the portal, Iowa will be down to QB3 Joey Labas, who has never attempted a pass. Labas will be backed up by QB4 Carson May.

WR Johnson transferred to Kansas State. LB Jacobs was a standout but got knocked out for the season with an injury in September – he committed to Oregon. CB Roberts played starter snaps through four games but walked away to retain a redshirt in 2022.

But it hasn’t all been bad news for the Hawkeyes. Iowa HC Kirk Ferentz says CB Cooper DeJean and TE Sam LaPorta are expected to return from injuries to play against Kentucky. Both were first-team All-Big Ten performers in 2022. LaPorta was one of three John Mackey Award finalists.

In addition to LaPorta, Iowa has been given several indications from 2023 NFL Draft prospects that they will indeed play in this game: LB Jack Campbell, CB Riley Moss, and LB Seth Benson.

S Merriweather, a two-star recruit who turned into a four-year contributor, was a standout starter and an all-American. He opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft. He was No. 2 on the team with three interceptions during the regular season.

Kentucky Inactives

• QB Will Levis (Opt-out)
• RB Chris Rodriguez (Opt-out)
• RB Kavosiey Smoke (Transfer portal)
• RB Ramon Jefferson (Injury)
• WR Chris Lewis (Transfer portal/Injury)
• WR Chauncey Magwood (Transfer portal)
• WR DeMarcus Harris (Transfer portal)
• WR Tayvion Robinson (Injury)
• TE Keaton Upshaw (Transfer portal)
• OG John Young (Transfer portal)
• OT Kiyaunta Goodwin (Transfer portal)
• CB Carrington Valentine (Opt-out)

Kentucky will start either backup QB Kaiya Sheron or Destin Wade, with QB Levis out the door to prepare for the NFL Draft. Some consider Levis a top-three overall NFL Draft prospect. I do not – let’s return to that in the spring – but it’s indisputable that Kentucky will greatly miss him in this contest.

Wade has never started. Sheron went 15-of-27 for 178 yards and a 2/1 TD/INT rate in a 24-14 loss to South Carolina with Levis on the shelf in the fall. Earlier in December, some media members around the team expected Wade to start. The coaching staff won’t say but is now forwarding the idea that Wade could be used in sub-packages, which might be a hunt that Sheron will make his second start of the season.

The Wildcats made a big splash at that position in the portal by signing QB Devin Leary. Kentucky was one of the Power 5’s most-aggressive portal teams in December.

Kentucky’s methodical offense is going to miss RB Rodriguez – C-Rod was easily UK’s best offensive player. Despite being suspended for the first month of the season, Rodriguez finished with 904 rushing yards and six TD over the last eight games.

RB Smoke’s defection leaves the running back room very thin. RB Jefferson was knocked out for the season before it even started. RB Jutahn McClain (238 yards this season) will start. The Wildcats are praying McClain can handle bunches of touches without going down in this game.

WR Robinson was not UK’s most consistent receiver, but he was the team’s most dangerous after the catch. His status for this game is unclear due to an unknown injury. WRs Lewis, Magwood, and Harris, TE Upshaw, and OG Young were all reserves. CB Valentine declared for the NFL Draft and opted out of this game. Valentine, a two-year starter, was the team’s best cornerback.

Coaching news

Kentucky OC Rich Scangarello and RB coach/co-special teams coordinator John Settle were both fired after the regular season. The Wildcats tabbed associate HC and TE coach Vince Marrow as play-caller for the bowl. Marrow had a startling proclamation that he may come to regret: “We will score points.” To be fair, Marrow had some success as a play-caller in a 23-21 win over NC State in the 2020 Gator Bowl. Marrow mentioned that Eddie Gran will also aid in the play-calling preparation effort.

Handicap

Kentucky and Iowa both have top-six SP+ defenses. Each of them boasts top-13 tackle success rates. Both teams’ offenses rank outside the top 90 SP+. Kentucky plays at the slowest offensive pace in the nation, and Iowa is No. 112. Both of the offenses lost more to opt-outs and transfers than the respective defenses did.

So you can understand why this game has a chance to break the FBS record for the lowest point total. That’s the correct referendum from the market. My adjusted total on this game is 26.

With Iowa’s terrible offense down to its QB3 and playing without star TE LaPorta, Iowa’s going to skew even more conservative in the bowl. Expect lots of running. Kentucky’s run defense is decent, but it does have two bugaboos that could come into play here: The Wildcats get nicked for long runs (No. 106 explosion) and don’t often get TFL (No. 79 stuff rate).

Kentucky’s offense has a dilemma against Iowa’s No. 1 SP+ defense (the Hawkeyes lost only one standout to opt-out on this side of the ball). Assuredly, Kentucky’s preference would also be to skew as run-heavy as possible. But Kentucky will have precious little running back talent and experience available in the bowl due to opt-outs, transfers, and injuries.

But, of course, Iowa has the best pass defense in the nation. So does Kentucky prefer its backup quarterback throwing into that with a sub-par receiving corps? Or does it want to take its chances with four-stringers running into Iowa’s front?

Yards will be hard to come by for both teams. Very few points will be scored. Iowa has a trump card for a matchup like this: a top-five SP+ special teams unit and a field-position weapon in P Tory Taylor.

We like Iowa to pull out the win in an ugly, low-scoring hit-fest.

The pick: Iowa -2 | Under 31

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CFP Semifinal (Fiesta) | Glendale, AZ

• Saturday, December 31 | 3:00 PM
• Michigan (-7.5) vs. TCU | Total: 58.5
• ATL: Michigan -5.6 | ATT: 62

TCU Inactives

• WR Quincy Brown (Injury)
• WR Caleb Medford (Transfer portal)

TCU is at full strength. WR Brown has been out since early September with a knee or ankle injury that appears to be season-ending. He and WR Medford combined for only 44 snaps this fall.

Michigan Inactives

• QB Cade McNamara (Transfer portal)
• QB Alan Bowman (Transfer portal)
• RB Blake Corum (Injury)
• TE Erick All (Transfer portal)
• TE Colston Loveland (Injury)
• TE Louis Hansen (Transfer portal)
• LS William Wagner (Injury)
• DT Mazi Smith (Legal)
• DT George Rooks (Transfer portal)
• EDGE Mark Morris (Injury)
• EDGE Eyabi Okie (Injury)
• S Caden Kolesar (Injury)

RB Corum has been shut down for the CFP with a knee injury. Corum was a consensus All-American and finished seventh in the Heisman voting. He ran for 1,463 yards and 18 TD on 5.92 YPC before going down with a knee injury in the second-to-last regular season game against Illinois. Corum tried to play through the injury but had only two carries for six yards against Ohio State before the plug was pulled.

TE Colston Loveland got hurt on a special teams play in the Big 10 title game and is questionable to play. QB McNamara and TE All, who were already out for the season with injuries, each recently transferred to Iowa. Yes, QB Bowman is still around, and he still has remaining eligibility. The Wolverines replaced him on the roster with the even-better traveled QB Jack Tuttle, keeping their where-is-he-now? quota alive in the QB room.

Following DT Smith’s arrest for felony gun charges and in advance of the Big 10 title game, Michigan did not choose to suspend Smith. Smith’s sentencing is scheduled for Dec. 29, two days prior to Michigan playing TCU. I’ve heard that Smith and the university are both extremely confident that the charges will be dropped.

EDGE Morris, the Big Ten defensive lineman of the year, missed the Big 10 title game with what was described as a “tweak” of a nagging undisclosed injury. Banged up throughout November, Morris still leads the Wolverines with 7.5 sacks. EDGE Okie was injured on the last play of that game, chasing Purdue QB Aidan O’Connell out of bounds. Each of their statuses needs to be monitored in the lead-up to the TCU game.

LS Wagner is out for the season with an undisclosed injury. Backup S Kolesar is out for the season with a knee injury, backup DT Rooks is looking for a new home in the portal.

Handicap

TCU must slow Michigan’s run game to stay within this number. Based on its work this season, the Horned Frogs have a shot – but they’re no sure thing to succeed.

TCU’s run defense had multiple sterling performances this season, the most impressive of which was shutting out the lights on Texas’ vaunted RB duo. RBs Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson combined for 43 yards on 17 carries in that game.

But over the last three games, TCU has given up 200-plus rushing yards each time. The Frogs coughed up 205 on 4.7 YPC against Kansas State. TCU’s overall advanced run defense metrics are middle-of-the-road. But TCU didn’t arrive here through consistency, they arrived here through high variance. This part of the handicap is the most important – it’s also the most high-variance.

Michigan has managed to stay strong on the ground even without star RB Corum. Wolverines RB Donovan Edwards lit up Ohio State for 216 yards on 9.8 YPC in the regular season finale and was B1G title game MVP after dropping 185 yards on Purdue.

That area of the game is definitely advantageous to Michigan – but TCU’s inconsistency in this area introduces a wide band of outcomes for what we can expect. I’m more confident in TCU’s pass defense – No. 22 success rate, 53.9% opponent completion percentage, 14 INT – slowing down surging Michigan QB JJ McCarthy.

McCarthy averaged 10.3 YPC in the last two games against the Buckeyes and Boilermakers, shredding them both. But TCU’s frisky pass defense is also opportunistic, and the advanced numbers say McCarthy has put the ball in harm’s way more often than he’s been penalized with an ultimate turnover. There’s a real chance we see a flip toward regression here, which would benefit TCU in the form of a turnover or two.

TCU’s offense averaged 40.3 PPG. It is led by Heisman Trophy runner-up Max Duggan, who lost his job coming out of camp only to reclaim it and rally TCU to a historic season. QB Duggan is a dangerous runner who lacks placement but has a strong arm as a thrower.

TCU’s rushing offense is top 20 in the nation, but Michigan’s run defense is top two. It’ll be interesting to see if Duggan can manufacture yards in this area. Duggan is the most dangerous rushing quarterback that Michigan will have faced this year. Assuredly, Duggan’s legs will make Michigan think twice before pinning its ears back with abandon in the pass rush.

Michigan’s pass defense also has the advantage over TCU’s passing offense heading in. But there’s another caveat: The Frogs have a matchup trump card on the outside in WR Quentin Johnston, who’ll go in Round 1 in the spring. Michigan must have a plan for him. And TCU must have a counter-plan if the Wolverines’ entails over-the-top help all game. That’ll mean 10-on-9 football over the rest of the field.

TCU has been one of the better in-game adjustment teams in the nation this year, so you’d figure they’d adapt quickly to what Michigan is throwing at them. But no team was better at halftime adjustments than the Wolverines. So we’re going to be treated to a chess master’s back-and-forth game-within-a-game for 60 minutes.

One sneaky area that isn’t being discussed enough: The Horned Frogs, who struggled with injuries at the beginning of November, are not only fully healthy now, but fully rested for the first time in a long time. TCU had to play 11 straight games after its September 17 bye.

Michigan is the more reliable outfit. TCU is the high-variance proposition. We see Round 1 routes all the time – since 2015, 11 of 14 semifinal games have been 14+ point blowouts – and we could get another here. But there’s just as good a chance that TCU throws enough off-angle looks at Michigan to befuddle them for stretches and make a game of this.

Michigan HC Jim Harbaugh – as gifted as they come as a pure coach – is, we must mention, 1-5 ATS and SU at Michigan in bowls. TCU HC Sonny Dykes is in a no-pressure scenario: Nobody expects the Frogs to win, so he can throw caution to the wind here.

I do think Michigan wins. But I’m going to side with my system and take the points with TCU.

The pick: TCU +7.5

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CFP Semifinal (Peach) | Atlanta, GA

• Saturday, December 31 | 7:00 PM
• Georgia (-6) vs. Ohio State | Total: 62
• ATL UGA -6.8 | ATT: 64

Ohio State Inactives

• RB TreVeyon Henderson (Injury)
• RB Miyan Williams (Injury)
• RB Evan Pryor (Injury)
• WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Injury)
• OG Matt Jones (Injury)
• LB Teradja Mitchell (Transfer portal)

RB Henderson will miss the CFP after announcing on Dec. 13 that he would undergo season-ending foot surgery. Banged up throughout the campaign – he’d been playing through a fracture and torn ligament in his foot since September – Henderson missed three of the last four regular season games. Henderson ran for 1,248 yards with 15 TD last season.

OSU RB2 Williams was able to return from a right leg injury to play against Michigan in the finale. Like Henderson, Williams dealt with injuries all season. Williams, who also came down with a stomach bug in the week lead-in to this game, will play, per OSU HC Ryan Day.

The Buckeyes’ RB depth has been an issue all season after previous RB3 Pryor was knocked out for the season before it began in August. If Williams is compromised in any way whatsoever, Ohio State’s run game is in trouble. Chip Trayanum and Dallan Hayden are the only other viable rushing options on the roster.

Also out for the bowl is WR Smith-Njigba, whose season is over due to his problematic hamstring. Smith-Njigba will now try to rehab in advance of the pre-Draft process. Smith-Njigba posted a ridiculous 95-1606-9 receiving line in 2021 before a lost campaign in 2022.

Starting OG Jones missed the Michigan game with an injury – it’s unclear if he’ll be able to return for the CFP. LB Mitchell played only one defensive snap in the fall.

Georgia Inactives

• WR Ladd McConkey (Injury)
• TE Arik Gilbert (Undisclosed)
• OG Tate Ratledge (Injury)
• OT Warren McClendon (Injury)
• DT Bill Norton (Transfer portal)
• EDGE Nolan Smith (Injury)
• S Dan Jackson (Injury)

WR McConkey left the SEC title game with a knee injury. OT McClendon was also injured in that game. It’s unclear if either will be able to return for the tilt with the Buckeyes.

OG Ratledge is playing through shoulder pain – his status likely isn’t affected for the CFP unless a serious aggravation of the injury occurs. TE Gilbert has scarcely played this season and isn’t likely to see the field in the CFP.

EDGE Smith was the team’s best edge-rusher. He suffered a pectoral tear against Florida and is out for the season. Smith was Georgia’s second-best defender to DT Jalen Carter by any measure you choose – PFF grade, NFL scouts’ words, the eyeball test, et al.

S Jackson is presumed out for the season with a foot injury. He had posted a sterling 80.7 PFF grade in 126 snaps before going down in October. DT Norton played only 46 snaps off the bench – he transferred to Arizona.

Handicap

Above, I mentioned that Michigan’s run defense is top-two quality in the nation. That’s because the Georgia Bulldogs are No. 1 in that area (No. 3 success rate, No. 4 efficiency, No. 30 explosion).

Ohio State’s offense will be one-dimensional and predictable in this game. With OSU RB1 Henderson out, RB2 Willams less than 100 percent, and the depth beyond that compromised, Ohio State figures to use the run as a changeup pitch in this game while skewing extremely pass-heavy. During the regular season, the Buckeyes were very balanced.

Much of this game, then, will come down to whether OSU QB CJ Stroud and WRs Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka can consistently move the ball through the air. Without OSU WR Smith-Njigba this year, Harrison and Egbuka have been a two-man show. They combined for a 138-2196-21 receiving line through the first 12 games. No other OSU pass-catcher has more than 35 catches, and only two have more than 10.

One thing OSU will have going for them in this area: Stroud will have time to throw. Georgia doesn’t blitz much (neither does OSU), and the Buckeyes’ offense ranks top five in opposing sack rate, anyway.

One thing Georgia has going for them: Bulldogs nickel CB Javon Bullard has been fabulous in coverage this fall. Of all FBS corners who played at least 280 coverage snaps, Bullard ranked No. 17 in coverage grade. Bullard gave up only 187 receiving yards on 45 targets this fall.

He’s also an extremely reliable tackler, preventing YAC opportunities but also protecting the perimeter on wide runs. Of the 16 players ranked above him in coverage grade, only two had a lower missed-tackle rate than Bullard.

Bullard will be on WR Egbuka all game. If Bullard can handle him, it’ll put all the more pressure on OSU WR Harrison, whose 2022 regular season work was graded No. 3 out of 1,045 graded receivers. Harrison will be trailed by UGA CB Kellee Ringo.

Ringo had an up-and-down season, with his missed-tackle rate and penalties taken both doubling from last year. But he’s the sort of guy you’d want on the 6-foot-3, 205-pound Harrison. Ringo, 6’2/210, is a prototypical NFL-style boundary corner who allowed an opposing NFL passer rating of less than 66.0 in both of his active seasons. Ringo, a redshirt sophomore, is the No. 5 CB in the 2023 NFL Draft class, per ESPN’s Mel Kiper.

For whatever it’s worth, Georgia has reliable safety play and a very-good CB2 on the opposite side of Ringo in ​​Kamari Lassiter. Lassiter will mostly draw OSU WR3 Julian Fleming, who was a bit of a disappointment with increased snaps in the wake of JSN’s inactivity this fall.

On the other side of the ball, Georgia has more of a downhill, physical ethos in contrast to OSU’s finesse spread-and-speed machinations. But the Bulldogs actually had an extremely similar run/pass balance to OSU during the regular season. Unlike OSU, Georgia can remain multiple in this game.

The strength of OSU’s defense is up the middle – DT Michael Hall Jr., LB Tommy Eichenberg, and FS Ronnie Hickman all grade top 60 at their positions (the latter two are top 15). The Buckeyes also have a pair of strong DEs in Zach Harrison and Jack Sawyer.

You try to attack the Buckeyes by targeting the other defenders. OSU’s corners can be had, as Michigan QB JJ McCarthy could tell you. UGA QB Stetson Bennett has been fabulous this year, ranking No. 18 in PFF grade among qualifiers.

Bennett also ranked top 20 in adjusted accuracy, the lowest rate of turnover-worth plays, the quickest average time to throw on dropbacks, and the lowest percentage of pressures turned into sacks. Bennett doesn’t look like much, and he doesn’t have a howitzer.

But Bennett gets the ball out on time and on the money – neutering the opposing pass rush while giving his receivers ample YAC opportunities – and also takes care of the ball. If your pass rush does get home, Bennett is one of the best in the nation at making the first guy miss to extend the play and make a throw.

Ohio State’s pass defense ranks a strong No. 17 in success rate but a rancid No. 116 in explosion allowed. Georgia’s passing offense ranks No. 1 and No. 87 in those categories, respectively. It’ll be interesting to see if the Bulldogs will be willing to trade some of that efficiency for more deep shots than normal – those should be there.

Ohio State’s run defense is better than its pass defense. But the Buckeyes also give up too many long runs (No. 41 explosion). OSU could battle Georgia’s fabulous run offense to more or less of a draw for large portions of the game, but it will all be for not if the Bulldogs can find the explosive runs that Michigan RB Donovan Edwards did. UGA ranked No. 32 in rushing explosion during the fall.

I simply don’t trust this Ohio State team. The Buckeyes have played only two SP+ top-25 teams – they beat Penn State 44-31 but were blown out at home 45-23 by Michigan. By contrast, four of OSU’s 12 opponents were ranked No. 80 lower SP+. OSU is a flawed team.

I do trust UGA HC Kirby Smart – career 6-2 ATS in postseason games – in these spots. And Georgia, by contrast, played six top-25 SP+ teams. The Bulldogs beat all six by double digits, five-of-six by 14 or more, four-of-six by 20 or more, and two-of-six by 41 or more.

The defending champ Georgia Bulldogs advance to the title game by smashing Ohio State by double-digits.

The pick: Georgia -6

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