Georgia vs. TCU: 2023 College Football Playoff National Championship Picks & Predictions

Jan 6, 2023 - 5:19 PM

Thor Nystrom rounds out the season with his prediction for the 2023 College Football Playoff National Championship between Georgia and TCU.

2023 College Football Playoff National Championship Betting Guide >>

• 2022 regular season: 82-66-3 ATS (55.4%)
• 2022 bowls: 27-17-1 ATS (61.4%)
• 2022 combined: 109-83-4 ATS (56.7%)
• 2014-2021: 706-620-17 ATS (53.2%)

Georgia vs. TCU: 2023 College Football Playoff National Championship Picks & Predictions

• Monday, January 9 | 6:30 PM
• Georgia (-12.5) vs. TCU | Total: 63
• ATL: UGA -10.7 | ATT: 61.5

TCU Injuries & Inactives

• RB Kendre Miller (Injury)
• WR Quincy Brown (Injury)
• WR Caleb Medford (Transfer portal)

RB Kendre Miller tweaked his right MCL against Michigan in the Fiesta Bowl but said after the game that he expects to be ready for the national title game. Miller was shaken up late in the first half, received treatment at halftime, but ultimately left the game after playing in the first series of the second half. Miller’s bullish postgame comments were encouraging. But he’s officially listed as questionable. Miller is a crucial piece to TCU’s explosive offense. Miller broke out for 1,399 yards and 17 TD on 6.2 YPC this season.

WR Quincy Brown has been out since early September with a season-ending knee or ankle injury. He and WR Caleb Medford combined for only 44 snaps this fall.

Georgia Injuries & Inactives

• TE Arik Gilbert (Transfer portal)
• TE Darnell Washington (Injury)
• DT Bill Norton (Transfer portal)
• EDGE Nolan Smith (Injury)
• LB Chaz Chambliss (Injury)
• S Dan Jackson (Injury)

TE Darnell Washington exited the Ohio State game ​​with a left ankle injury in the first quarter. After the game, HC Kirby Smart said Washington was being evaluated for a potential high-ankle sprain. UGA TE Oscar Delp soaked up most of Washington’s snaps off the bench in the Bulldogs’ two-TE system. Washington is officially listed as questionable for the national title game.

RT Warren McClendon, who suffered a knee injury in the SEC title game, dressed in the semifinal game, but didn’t start and ended up taking a mere one snap off the bench. His replacement, RT Amarius Mims, played well. It’s unclear if McClendon will be healthy enough to be a full-go for TCU or if Georgia will want to swap Mims out, even if he is.

OLB Chaz Chambliss needed help leaving the field in the semifinal game against Ohio State just before halftime with a left knee injury. His status for the natty is unclear.

TE Arik Gilbert, a former vaunted LSU recruit, scarcely played for Georgia over two seasons after transferring over. The No. 113 recruit of all time per the 247Sports Composite, Gilbert is looking for a new home in the portal.

EDGE Nolan Smith was the team’s best edge rusher. He suffered a pectoral tear against Florida and is out for the season. Smith was Georgia’s second-best defender to DT Jalen Carter by any measure you choose – PFF grade, NFL scouts’ words, the eyeball test, etc.

S Dan Jackson is out for the season with a foot injury. He had posted a sterling 80.7 PFF grade in 126 snaps before going down in October. DT Bill Norton played only 46 snaps off the bench this fall – he transferred to Arizona.

How Georgia Got Here

After winning last year’s national championship, the Bulldogs lost a record 15 NFL Draft picks. The offense more or less escaped the carnage. But last year’s historically-awesome defense had two more starters taken in round one (five) than returned to school (three).

The Bulldogs were fortunate with the 2022 schedule draw. The non-con featured three cupcakes (plus getting former DC Dan Lanning’s Oregon Ducks in Atlanta in the opener). In the SEC slate, Georgia ducked Alabama, Texas A&M, LSU, Mississippi and Arkansas.

Along with Alabama’s pair of regular-season hiccups, this made for the ever-rare season where Georgia could win the SEC and potentially the CFP without having to play Alabama. The SEC title game brought a banged-up LSU, which Georgia blasted.

Georgia is 14-0 and 7-7 ATS. The Bulldogs’ -1.3 cover PPG rate ranks No. 80 in the country. Kirby Smart has built a juggernaut in Athens. This season, it’s fair to say he hit the ball down the fairway.

That may sound like damning with faint praise. But it could also be read as a data point in Georgia’s favor for Monday. If Georgia hits it down the fairway for a 15th time, they will repeat as national champions.

How TCU got here

Georgia is chalk. TCU is the opposite.

The Horned Frogs fired HC Gary Patterson last fall amid a 5-7 lost season. The Horned Frogs entered the season, having gone 16-18 since 2018. TCU had not won more than seven games in a season since 2017. Then, TCU’s highest-profile player, five-star starter RB Zach Evans, transferred to Ole Miss.

TCU hired HC Sonny Dykes. Most weren’t super-optimistic about the idea of immediate returns. But a few signs were pointing to a potential quick start for Dykes. TCU returned 18 starters for the second-consecutive season. In conjunction with multiple shrewd transfer portal signings, this year’s TCU roster is very experienced.

The 2021 Frogs had two enormous tree-top issues:  They couldn’t consistently throw the ball, and their defense fell off a cliff from 2020 (24.2 PPG allowed to 34.9). As I wrote about in my TCU season preview, the latter issue was going to improve through positive regression alone. The former issue is where Dykes came in. QB Max Duggan’s improvement as a thrower, in large part, can be credited to Dykes.

Despite its struggles, the 2021 Frogs had a good offensive line and running game. Those things carried over – RB Miller proved ready for primetime, stepping into a larger role following Evans’ exit – and the above terminal issues were immediately rectified. Mix in TCU’s veteran experience and Dykes and crew’s clever game planning, and you had a recipe for a magical season.

TCU enters 13-1 and 10-3 ATS. The Frogs were tripped up 31-28 in OT of the Big 12 title game against Kansas State. But TCU bounced back by upsetting Michigan 51-45 in the semifinals, a game the Frogs led and controlled throughout. TCU was underdogs three times this season – they won all three outright by six points or more.

Handicap: Georgia offense vs. TCU defense

Georgia’s offense is constructed how an NFL evaluator would put together a college offense.

You’ve got a superb offensive line (every starter is PFF-graded top-140 at their respective position, and three are top-100), a heady, veteran quarterback (QB Stetson Bennett is 25 years old), a deep backfield (headlined by stud Kenny McIntosh) and a matchup-nightmare TE (Brock Bowers).

Georgia’s ground game (No. 13 success rate) has the decided advantage on TCU’s run defense (No. 69 success rate) heading in. But there are two caveats to this:

1. TCU’s run defense has ticked way up in certain matchups, such as the Texas game
2. TCU has sometimes been able to mitigate opponents’ running games by jumping out to an early lead and forcing them to play from behind.

One thing to keep an eye on:  UGA TE Darnell Washington’s status. Washington doesn’t get much ink because he’s a tertiary option in the passing game. But he’s one of the very best run-blocking tight ends in the nation. No regular tight end in the nation fits the “third-tackle” prototype more snugly.

Washington’s 86.4 overall PFF grade ranks No. 2 on the entire Georgia offense, only one-tenth of a point behind QB Bennett. If Washington misses this game, he’ll be replaced by youngster TE Oscar Delp. Delp has posted a rough 58.7 PFF grade over 143 snaps.

Georgia wants to get a lead and pound the rock against this undersized TCU defense – this is the clear goal heading in. It was Michigan’s, too. The Wolverines also had a superb offensive line – the Joe Moore Award-winning offensive line, in fact. TCU’s 3-3-5 defense, run by DC Joe Gillespie, is built on speed, gang-tackling, and getting hands on the ball when it’s in the air. TCU uses three safeties – all three are asked to chip in on run defense.

“Our team is built with speed, so it allows you to get more speed on the field,” Gillespie said of TCU’s defensive scheme. “It allows you to be very versatile in the looks that you get… The first thing that’s gonna stand out is there are a lot of hats running fast that can get to the ball in a number of different ways.”

TCU’s defense cedes beef by swapping out a lineman for a safety, of course. But the Frogs get some back through its linebacking corps – all three starters weigh 230 pounds or more. In the run game, TCU’s defensive line is asked to occupy blockers for the wave of linebackers and safeties coming to help. In the pass rush, TCU’s line uses stunts – two players swapping gaps – and slants to discombobulate opposing lines. In combination with blitzing from unorthodox angles, TCU can generate heat by subterfuge and speed, not one-on-one physical supremacy.

In the passing game, TCU has the advantage on Georgia. The Bulldogs’ offensive weakness is its mediocre receiving corps and the physical limitations of QB Bennett. TCU’s defensive strength is its outstanding secondary, led by CB Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson, the Jim Thorpe Award winner.

UGA QB Bennett has done a good job keeping the ball out of harm’s way this season. So TCU’s opportunistic secondary may not get the field-flipping opportunities in this game that they’ve gotten in others, most recently the Michigan game. But Bennett also isn’t going to find many open windows to throw into.

Regardless of what the counting stats said, Bennett, coming off one of his worst games of the season, simply must play better on Monday. It would greatly aid him if Georgia is playing with a lead throughout. That’s when it becomes bully ball with the occasional play-action shot. This is Georgia’s game. The situation gets murkier for the Bulldogs if they’re playing from behind.

Georgia did rank No. 1 in passing success rate during the season. But the Bulldogs ranked just No. 87 in passing explosion. Georgia typically picked on weaker secondaries by completing short passes and gobbling up YAC yardage. But Georgia rarely takes deep shots, partly because they haven’t much needed to and partly because they don’t have the personnel for it.

But deep shots are the one area you can nick TCU’s pass defense, which ranks No. 111 in marginal explosion. Man-on-man across the formation, TCU’s secondary has the advantage over Georgia’s receivers. The exception to that is Bowers, who will be a handful for TCU to cover. But Bowers has had an oddly modest season to this point. Bowers has reached 70 receiving yards in only three of 14 games.

There are several offenses in the nation more dangerous than Georgia’s. But few are more reliable. It’s difficult to take away UGA’s efficiency. They may not hit many offensive home runs, but they scratch out singles, doubles and walks with the best of them. To extend the metaphor, with runners in scoring position – in scoring opportunities – they’re money in the bank.

Georgia ranks No. 1 in red-zone offense scoring percentage and No. 9 in points per scoring opportunity. This is an area where Georgia’s offense has a huge advantage in this game. TCU’s defense ranked just No. 78 in points per scoring opportunity allowed.

When backed up, TCU will hope to hold Georgia to field goal attempts. Georgia’s red-zone TD rate ranking is No. 35, relatively meager compared to their scoring percentage. That tells you that the Bulldogs are at least a lock for a field goal when they breach your 20, but that you can force their kicking unit onto the field if you stiffen up.

Georgia’s scare against Ohio State showed how the Bulldogs’ offense can get bogged down when the running attack slows, and Bennett isn’t on his game. Bennett piled up yards later on during Georgia’s wild comeback – but the Bulldogs probably never should have been in that position.

Not turning the ball over is crucial to prevent that from happening again, as is establishing run-game dominance. Georgia ranks No. 3 in time of possession. Controlling the ball – and keeping TCU’s offense off the field – is way up there on UGA’s priority list heading in.

Handicap: TCU offense vs. Georgia defense

TCU is only slightly above-average in terms of offensive efficiency in the country, ranking No. 56 in success rate and No. 49 in marginal efficiency. But the Frogs are as explosive as they come, ranking No. 4 isoPPP, No. 3 marginal explosiveness and No. 9 in explosive play rate. TCU is top-10 in explosiveness, both throwing and rushing.

This is the area TCU ultimately needs to succeed in to spring the upset. And they have a chance to. Georgia’s defense ranked No. 6 in success rate during the regular season but only No. 44 in isoPPP and No. 46 in marginal explosiveness. TCU must take advantage of every opening Georgia gives for a big play.

Last season, TCU QB Max Duggan finished with the 19th-highest turnover-worthy throw rate in the FBS. He also finished No. 73 in adjusted accuracy. This year, Duggan slashed the turnovers while improving accuracy. Along the way, a big-play spigot was opened. Duggan’s turnover-worthy throw rate, which was almost cut exactly in half from 2021, tied for 29th-lowest in the FBS – ironically, with UGA QB Stetson Bennett. Duggan’s adjusted accuracy improved to No. 42.

Part of this can be attributed to a schematic change calling for attacking number advantages more than sheer air yards. Duggan’s 9.7 aDOT in 2022 was the first time over four seasons on campus he hadn’t averaged at least 10.3. And yet his adjusted yards per attempt exploded to 9.9, a full two yards above his career average.

Whereas Bennett mostly uses his legs to buy time in the pocket, Duggan has a legitimate rushing utility to his game. Outside of it, Duggan has combined to rush for 167 yards and three TD the past two games against Michigan and Kansas State.

Georgia is probably better equipped to deal with Duggan’s ground machinations than TCU’s last two opponents. That’s because the Bulldogs, more disposed than most to play things straight on defense, rarely blitz. This strategy will surely cut down on Duggan’s potential scrambling opportunities.

But the trade-off will be more time for Duggan to operate in the pocket as a thrower. And that’ll make the matchup of TCU WR Quentin Johnston vs. UGA CB Kelee Ringo crucial. Ringo is not going to shut down Johnston. That shouldn’t be the expectation. But he can’t get lit up like a Christmas tree by Johnston as Michigan’s pass defense was (Johnston posted a 6-137-1 line in that game).

Ringo has the size (6’2/210) for the matchup against Johnston (6’4/215). If Ringo struggles to keep up with the freaky speedster Johnston in the open field, Georgia can also try Kamari Lassiter (6’1/180) on Johnston. Georgia’s staff will spend all week trying to figure out how to deprive Johnston of his explosive plays – assuredly, Michigan did the same but was unsuccessful.

Georgia has a very good secondary, including a gifted slot in CB Javon Bullard. The puzzle that the unit will need to solve is how to address TCU’s speed in space while simultaneously bracketing Johnston. It’s very difficult to do both – and impossible to do both while not thinning out your box. This, along with TCU’s skill, explains why the Frogs’ attack is so dangerous.

Johnston is TCU’s perimeter trump card. But the Frogs have oodles of receiving depth and a ridiculous amount of speed on the perimeter. If they catch you in a bad matchup or your coverage breaks down, they’ll fling it up to one of their ancillary receivers with 4.4 wheels deep. In this way, TCU’s offense forces you to cover every inch of the field horizontally and vertically every play.

TCU has a strong, veteran-laden offensive line. The job of that line will mostly be to ensure that UGA DT Jalen Carter doesn’t wreck the entire game plan. That’s easier said than done. Carter was a top-five graded defender in the entire nation this season. Carter’s “down” game against Ohio State was overblown – Carter played 52 of 70 snaps, the most of any Georgia interior linemen, and he posted the highest PFF game grade of any Georgia defender who played 40-or-more snaps. TCU’s offensive brass will likely try to help out its line in the contain-Carter pursuit by writing inside runs more-or-less out of the game plan.

This brings us to TCU RB Kendre Miller’s status, which is crucial to TCU’s viability in this game. Miller was the No. 27 PFF-graded RB (85.3) out of 198 FBS qualifiers. His backup, RB ​​Emari Demercado, graded No. 193 (69.5).

I was surprised to see Demercado that low on the list. But there’s no question there’s a big drop-off between the two. The one area Demercado may be a slight upgrade is as a receiver (unfortunately, both are awful in pass-pro).

As runners, it’s no contest. Miller is far more dynamic and explosive, he’s more difficult to tackle, and you can do more things with him. If Miller plays and is near full health, Miller could connect on a few explosive runs, and he and Duggan could scratch out a little efficiency to keep TCU on schedule.

Demercado does have one skill as a runner that’ll play here. Demercado is a grinder who ranks No. 21 in the FBS with 4.01 yards after contact. By the time Demercado got most of his run in the semifinal game, Michigan was terrified of TCU’s passing attack. Demercado dropped 150 yards and a TD on the Wolverines on only 17 carries.

That shouldn’t be the expectation, but Demercado will at least take a profit when he’s on the field. If Demercado is thrust into the bell-cow role on Monday, TCU’s explosive element on the ground evaporates. And, at that point, Duggan’s scrambles will not only be welcome but likely necessary to win. TCU’s efficiency on offense would need to tick up to make up for the loss of explosion.

Georgia’s defense is very good, but it can be beaten. Ohio State gave the blueprint. The Bulldogs will beat any team in the nation in a phone booth. But if you spread out the Bulldogs and force them to defend in space, you’ll have a chance if your quarterback is locked-in and your playmakers make plays.

Georgia ranks only No. 111 in sack rate, and the Bulldogs do not like to blitz. What you can’t do is assert your will on the Bulldogs and methodically march down the field. But you can take your time in the pocket looking for teammates in space. TCU will be happy to do that. From there, it’ll be about Duggan and his receiving corps.

The Verdict

The irony here is that TCU’s defense was designed to address the proliferation of the Big 12’s spread passing attacks, while Georgia’s was designed to address surgical, physical SEC offenses. The winner of the national title game will likely be decided by which of those two units is better able to adapt to a different sort of opponent on the sport’s biggest stage.

What wrinkles will we see? Will Georgia watch the Ohio State tape and the TCU-Michigan game and realize it needs to blitz far more often than it usually does (No. 76 blitz rate)? But if the Bulldogs do that, how will they jive having fewer numbers back to deal with TCU’s speed in space? How will they have enough numbers to provide over-the-top help on Johnston?

Will TCU get a load of Georgia’s mauling offensive line and a deep stable of sleek backs on tape and decide it wants to audible more often into the 5-2-4 hybrid alignment we saw utilized the past two games against Kansas State and Michigan situationally? But how will it prevent jump-balls to UGA TE Bowers if it does?

Against Michigan, TCU was able to flip the game script via a huge goal-line stand on the Wolverines’ first drive, followed by a pick-six on its second (TCU punted in-between). After a Wolverines punt, TCU had a 12-play TD drive that put it up 14-0. From there, Michigan had to play TCU’s game, not vice-versa.

It is critical for Georgia that they not similarly fall behind in the first quarter. TCU is not to be taken lightly. When they get you on your heels, they’ll throw flurries until you drop. Will UGA skew conservative early on as a sort of Floyd Mayweather feeling-out process to guard against that while getting a sense for TCU’s speed?

Similarly, it is critical for TCU not to get flattened in the run game while on defense and to take care of the ball offensively. The Horned Frogs survived three turnovers to beat Michigan (mostly because they got three back and made those hurt more, including two pick-sixes). But TCU isn’t turning the ball over three times against Georgia and winning. The Frogs will need to be more discretionary while retaining the special-sauce explosion that got them here.

Georgia has been here before. They are the known quantity. TCU has been overlooked all season. I was reasonably high on the Frogs coming into the season – I pounded the table for an over bet on their 6.5 win total over the summer – but I am among the throng of doubters who didn’t believe the Frogs could get here.

But now that they’re here and we’ve arrived at the pick, I find that TCU has drained the doubt out of me. They are not the fluke that they’ve been forwarded to the public as. Take off your glasses, wipe the lenses, and look with fresh eyes.

This is a defense that was mostly recruited by legendary defensive mind Gary Patterson. It has a hair-on-fire style that would make Patterson proud, flying to the ball, big collisions, tipped-passes galore – a havoc machine.

That defense has been paired with a Ferrari of an offense. WR Johnston is a top-10 overall NFL Draft possibility. RB Miller, multiple OL starters and secondary receivers will get drafted. QB Duggan should stick around in the NFL as a backup. That Ferrari is being driven by one of the sport’s best offensive play-callers in HC Dykes.

In short:  One of the most experienced rosters in the nation has an elite Sonny Dykes offense, a good Gary Patterson defense and a top-30 special teams unit.

Does any of that sound fluky to you?

Georgia better not overlook TCU on Monday, or they will find themselves in the same position as so many others, with their backs on the canvas, looking up at the ceiling starry-eyed, wondering where it all went wrong.

The Pick: TCU +12.5 (-110 via DraftKings Sportsbook)

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