Week 13 GameScout: Rams at Patriots

Sep 21, 2017 - 7:49 PM Los Angeles Rams (4-7) at New England Patriots (9-2)

KICKOFF: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Gillette Stadium. TV: FOX, Kevin Burkhardt, John Lynch, Pam Oliver.

SERIES HISTORY: 13th regular-season meeting. Patriots lead the series, 7-5. The teams last played in 2012 in London, with the Patriots walloping the Rams 45-7.

KEYS TO THE GAME: The Patriots will begin life without Gronk in this game for the rest of the regular season at least. Tight end Rob Gronkowski was to undergo surgery Friday to repair a herniated disc and only after that will doctors have any idea if playing in the Super Bowl in February is even a consideration. Without him the Patriots chances of getting there are diminished. QB Tom Brady says losing his top target is "a big void left by such a spectacular player."

Backup TE end Martellus Bennett filled in admirably in Gronkowski's absences, with three 100-yard games of his own. However, Bennett has ankle and shoulder injuries. He is listed as questionable on the Friday injury report, along with Brady (Knee), and Julian Edelman (foot).

The Rams have their own issues and must assert their sometimes punishing defense to keep games close to protect an offense that hasn't been able to consistently score points. The Rams hung in for one half against the Saints last week but were eventually overwhelmed by Drew Brees. In his second start, No. 1 overall draftee Jared Goff threw for three TDs and had a 100.3 passer rating.

The Patriots need To remain balanced against the Rams, running LeGarrette Blount and Dion Lewis out of passing sets. This will help the OL give a banged-up Brady time to work.

They face an significant challenge from energetic DT Aaron Donald (6 sacks), DE Robert Quinn and a group of speedy linebackers. Brady should throw to Edelman, rookie Malcolm Mitchell and budding big-play threat Chris Hogan.

The Patriots' run defense held the Jets and Matt Forte in check and must be stout against second-year Rams RB Todd Gurley, who is in a sophomore slump. He carried the ball 200 times -- including six games with 19 or more attempts -- so clearly the Rams will continue to stay balanced despite his dismal 3.2-yard average.

Assuming that the Patriots' front, which could be without veteran DT Alan Branch, can stifle Gurley, the focus can then turn to Goff, the rookie making his third start. Not helping his cause is blink-quick receiver Tavon Austin listed as questionable with a foot injury.

MATCHUPS TO WATCH:

--Patriots RB LeGarrette Blount vs. Rams MLB Alec Ogletree. Ogletree transitioned to the middle for his fourth season after spending the first three at weakside linebacker and leads Los Angeles in tackles with 125, including 96 solo stops. Blount leads the Patriots with 869 rushing yards on 212 carries.

--Rams WR Kenny Britt vs. Patriots CB Malcolm Butler. Butler is having a solid season as the best coverage player in New England's back end. But he is coming off his toughest day -- picked on by Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brandon Marshall and Quincy Enunwa. Britt is having a very good season as the Rams' top target, leading L.A. with 54 catches and four touchdown receptions. Whether Butler matches up with Britt or not, New England's No. 1 cornerback will need to bounce back from a tough day for a pass defense that's still trying to settle in at this late point in the season.

FRIDAY INJURY REPORT

LOS ANGELES RAMS

--Doubtful: WR Tavon Austin (chest)

--Questionable: C Tim Barnes (foot), T Andrew Donnal (hip), DE Robert Quinn (concussion), T Rodger Saffold (hand)

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

--Out: TE Rob Gronkowski (back), S Jordan Richards (knee)

--Questionable: TE Martellus Bennett (ankle, shoulder), QB Tom Brady (knee), S Nate Ebner (concussion), WR Julian Edelman (foot), DE Trey Flowers (shin), DT Woodrow Hamilton (illness), WR Chris Hogan (back), LB Elandon Roberts (jaw), WR Matt Slater (foot)

PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: Rams DT Aaron Donald. The Rams' best hope against Tom Brady is to make him uncomfortable, and that means putting heat on him in the pass rush. Since 2014, Donald leads all NFL DTs with 24 sacks, including six this season. His ability to collapse the pocket and create rushing opportunities for other rushers, such as DE Robert Quinn could make the game difficult for Brady.

FAST FACTS: Rams WR/PR Tavon Austin had a TD catch in Week 12. Since 2013, Austin is the only NFL player with at least five rushing TDs (he has seven), 10 receiving TDs (12) and a punt-return score (three). ... Rams WR Kenny Britt has 297 receiving yards and three TDs in the past three road games. ... Rams DT Aaron Donald recorded a sack and forced fumble last week. Since 2014, he leads NFL defensive tackles with 26 sacks. ... Patriots QB Tom Brady has 200 career wins, tied with Peyton Manning for most all-time. In seven games this season, he has 2,201 passing yards, with 18 TDs and one interception. He has six passing TDs in the past two games vs. the Rams. ... Patriots RB LeGarrette Blount has seven rushing TDs in his past five home games and leads the NFL with 12 rushing TDs. ... Patriots WR Julian Edelman has 23 catches for 259 yards in his past three games. ... Patriots DE Chris Long spent eight seasons with Rams (2008-15).

PREDICTION: Bill Belichick vs. a rookie QB? Should be a mismatch if Patriots OL can handle Rams front seven and protect a gimpy Brady.

OUR PICK: Patriots, 31-16.

--Chris Cluff