Top NFL Week 3 Preseason Betting Picks For Friday, August 27th (2021)

Aug 27, 2021 - 10:55 AM

The third and final week of the preseason is upon us, which means real games are right around the corner. The preseason has been shortened by one game this year, resulting in many teams taking vastly different approaches to deploying their starters. Some teams like the Giants went with almost exclusively backups through the first two games, but plan on playing many of their starters including Daniel Jones in game three. Other teams like the Rams don’t plan on playing their starters in any of the three games.

Different philosophies across the league have created difficult betting situations through the first two weeks of the preseason, but we’re already getting a few more pieces of concrete information heading into this week.

With four games on Friday, I’ve picked out my three favorite bets of the night to end the preseason on a high note. We’ve got one total and two sides on tap, so let’s dive in.

Check out our consensus odds for this week’s preseason games >>

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Minnesota Vikings (+4; O/U 38.5)

We went bold last week and took the Chiefs vs. Cardinals under, a bet that certainly was a bit contrarian but one that paid off in the end as we covered by two touchdowns. We’re hopping back on the Kansas City under train, and also backing the Chiefs on Friday night… for 15 minutes.

Andy Reid said this week he plans to play his starters again, and perhaps as long as he did last week which was essentially the entire first half. Remember, last week I cited how the previous two preseason games that Reid made promises about playing his starters, he ended their night much earlier than he indicated to the media. Last week he bucked that trend and actually stayed true to his word, playing Mahomes and company for two quarters and calling 18 passing plays for his star quarterback. Reid said the plan is the same this week, but I don’t fully believe him. I do expect Mahomes and company to be out there, but not for more than a quarter; maybe a drive into the second frame. That’s why Chiefs -1.5 in the first quarter is a bet I’m taking in this one for a half-unit.

Why would the Chiefs, the most well-oiled machine in the NFL over the last two seasons, need to play their starters in the preseason after they started 4-0 last year without any preseason at all? Clearly, they feel they need to work on something, and my hunch is it’s the offensive line. They completely overhauled the line this offseason, and I think the coaching staff wants to give them as much time as they can together and in front of Mahomes so there’s at least some sort of chemistry come Week 1. Given that hypothesis, and factoring in the high volume of passes from Mahomes last week, I really do anticipate the Chiefs running an offense with a purpose in the first quarter, or at least on the opening drive. And when they’re really trying to get into the endzone, few are equipped to stop them; I don’t care if it’s the preseason or the regular season.

Kansas City has led at the end of the first quarter in both preseason games, including last week when Mahomes and the starters were out there. They’ll go up against a Vikings team who has looked really bad so far in the preseason. They’ve scored a grand total of 16 points through two weeks, and have allowed 12 against them in the first quarter alone. Mike Zimmer has vowed to play his starters, but has already proclaimed Adam Thielen won’t play. And Justin Jefferson was strangely wearing a red non-contact jersey in practice earlier in the week, so I can’t envision them taking any risks with him. 

NO CONTACT: Justin Jefferson was wearing a red no-contact jersey at practice on Monday. So either the Minnesota Vikings are being cautious, or he's backing up Kirk… pic.twitter.com/c4U3gwrzpz

— SKOR North (@SKORNorth) August 24, 2021

That leaves just Dalvin Cook on the Minnesota offense, and despite the Vikings “playing their starters” in Week 2, he didn’t touch the ball. There’s no reason for them to change their approach with their star running back in a game that means no more than last week’s did. Kansas City’s offense trying to prepare for Week 1 against a shell of Minnesota’s starting unit? Yes please.

Much of the above handicap also clearly leans towards the under. Missing stars from the Vikings, skepticism about the Chiefs’ starters playing more than a quarter. Plus, neither team’s backups have really shown much offensively. The Vikings have scored a just 16 points in two preseason games, and the Chiefs have scored 36 – not bad, but certainly not inspiring. The total has also inexplicably risen 2.5-points thanks to public money after Andy Reid made his proclamation that his starters would see time. The same thing happened last week, and the under hit without any sweat. I expect a similar outcome this week.

Note: if the media reports on Friday morning that Mahomes will sit, but the rest of the starters will play, shift a full unit to the under and abort playing the Chiefs in the first quarter.

The Pick: Chiefs 1Q -1.5 (0.5 units) and Full Game Under 38.5 (0.5 units)

Carolina Panthers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (+4, O/U 35)

The line movement in this game has been wild. Pittsburgh opened as a 4.5-point favorite, but once Mike Tomlin named Dwayne Haskins his starter and Matt Rhule announced he’d like to give his starters some time, the line inverted and featured the Panthers as a 4.5-point favorite. At the time of writing, the Steelers are +4 at about half the books, and +3.5 at others. I obviously prefer the better number, but if 3.5 is all you can get, I still like it. If it falls to +3, I would play it for just a half-unit.

Maybe I’m in the minority, but 15 minutes of Carolina’s starters and Dwayne Haskins suiting up for the Steelers aren’t things that should move a line 8.5 points. So off the bat, I like the value on the Pittsburgh side here. Secondly, I understand that we’re going to see Carolina’s best against the Steelers reserves, but I don’t expect to see them for more than a quarter. Using that logic, we’re getting three quarters of strictly backups on both teams. And that heavily favors the Steelers.

Pittsburgh has outscored opponents 39-20 in the second half this preseason – which is when the backups have mostly played – and the much-maligned Haskins has played surprisingly well. He’s 28/42 for 271 yards and a touchdown this preseason, and I believe much of the public is hung up on how poorly he played with Washington. So, when they saw him named as Pittsburgh’s starter on Friday, they blindly faded him. We won’t be following that trend, we’re buying a motivated Haskins who is looking to solidify his roster spot.

Dwayne Haskins says the biggest difference between now and when the Steelers signed him over the winter is his confidence.
Asked what brought it back, he cited a number of factors, including being around people who want him to succeed.

— Will Graves (@WillGravesAP) August 25, 2021

The Panthers have also been really poor on defense through two weeks, allowing 20 points to the Ravens and 21 to the Colts. For reference, the quarterbacks they faced were Jacob Eason, Sam Ehlinger, and Tyler Huntley. Haskins is a superior quarterback to any of those three, and should have no problem putting drives together. This game should be closer to a pick ‘em, at most Panthers -1.5. Getting the Steelers at more than a field goal is a gift, and one we should take advantage of.

The Pick: Steelers (+4; play down to +3.5)

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Mike Wagenman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @mjwags23.

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