Denver Broncos vs. New York Giants Odds & Game Pick (2021)

Sep 11, 2021 - 10:58 AM

The Week 1 opener between the Denver Broncos and New York Giants features a ton of questions:

• Is Daniel Jones any good?
• Can Teddy Bridgewater lead Denver to the postseason?
• Can Vic Fangio and Joe Judge actually coach?

These are just some of the questions we’ll start to get answers to in the season opener. Oddly enough, it’s the visiting Broncos who come into MetLife Stadium favored. Can the Giants get it done as a home dog? Let’s break down this cross-conference showdown.

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Details 

• Opening line: Denver -1
• Current line: Denver -3
• Total: 41.5
• Location: MetLife Stadium, New York
• TV: FOX

Broncos turning to Teddy 

When the Broncos named Teddy Bridgewater their starter after acquiring him via trade from Carolina this spring, I wasn’t surprised one bit.

Bridgewater fits exactly what a conservative, defensive-minded coach like Vic Fangio wants. Bridgewater is conservative and competent. He doesn’t elevate your offense’s upside, but he won’t lose you a game. He’s the opposite of the gunslinging Drew Lock, and this move made sense for Denver’s roster.

The Broncos could have a potentially loaded defense headlined by Von Miller, Bradley Chubb, Justin Simmons, Kyle Fuller, and 2021 first-round pick Patrick Surtain (however, I still believe Denver made a mistake taking Surtain over Justin Fields). Denver must improve against the run, where it ranked 25th in FootballOutsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. Defensively, the Broncos are loaded with talent on the outside but still might be vulnerable up the middle.

With a defense this potentially good, it seems Fangio’s game plan will be to pound the ball with tailbacks Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams and win games with a defense that could finish as the league’s best.

However, that’s not to say Denver’s passing game will be bad. Bridgewater has plenty of weapons. There are just questions surrounding all of them. Courtland Sutton returns from a torn ACL. Jerry Jeudy has to step up after a disappointing, drops-filled rookie season. Noah Fant needs to ascend to another level in his third season.

Denver’s offense has a pretty high ceiling even with Bridgewater under center if the pieces all come together.

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2021 a turning point season for the Giants

The Giants need to answer one question during the 2021 season: is Daniel Jones capable of being a franchise quarterback?

The jury may still be out for some. However, I have a hard time buying Jones as a franchise QB. Jones’ performance through two years has been sporadic. While he’s thrown for 35 touchdowns in 26 games, he’s also thrown 22 interceptions and has fumbled 29 times (23 of which were lost). Jones’ lows continue to outweigh his highs.

The other issue is that Jones hasn’t had the best infrastructure around him, which remains the case in 2021. While the Giants upgraded his weaponry by adding Kenny Golladay (who’s already hurt) and rookie Kadarius Toney, they did nothing to address the offensive line. 2020 first-round pick Andrew Thomas struggled as a rookie and needs to take a step forward if this unit is to have any hope.

Combine all that with the uncertainty surrounding Saquon Barkley’s health, and the Giants offense might be one to fade at least early in the year.

Defensively, the Giants could have something brewing after the unit finished the 2020 season strong. They allowed only 5.3 yards per play, held opponents to just 4.1 yards per rush, and recorded 40 sacks last season. However, the analytics suggest New York’s defensive surge might’ve been a mirage. The G-men ranked 19th in DVOA, 22nd in pass defense DVOA, and 15th in rush defense DVOA.

Aside from Golladay, New York’s biggest free-agent addition was cornerback Adoree’ Jackson, who should start opposite James Bradberry in the secondary. Jackson has serious health concerns, but if he can stay healthy, the secondary should be solid. I’m curious if we see continued growth from a young front seven featuring Dexter Lawrence, Leonard Williams, and leading tackler Blake Martinez. If all three ascend, this defense could be legitimate.

Bottom Line

From the minute this game opened, it screamed under to me. Both teams have stout defenses and plenty of questions and/or health issues on offense. Betting a total this low ensures you’ll be sweating the whole way, but I don’t see how either team lights up the scoreboard. High winds also could be a factor, as forecasts call for sustained winds of 15 miles per hour with gusts up to 22 MPH.

As for the side, I’d lean with the home underdog to keep this game close. While I like Denver’s roster more than New York’s, the Broncos have done nothing to this point to merit being 3-point road favorites. However, betting on Danny Dimes makes me squeamish enough to stay off this spread.

Pick: Under 42, slight lean Giants +3

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Matt Barbato is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him @RealMattBarbato.

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