Minnesota Vikings vs. Arizona Cardinals Odds & Game Pick (2021)

Sep 18, 2021 - 10:20 AM

There’s no more overreaction in the NFL betting market than between Weeks 1 and 2. That’s because we enter every season with preconceived notions of what every team will be, then have our preconceptions either verified or destroyed by one result.

The key there is “one result.” While Week 1 gives us more information than we had the week before, it’s also the smallest sample size we’ll have all season. And obviously, one game doesn’t define an entire season.

This Week 2 matchup between the Minnesota Vikings and Arizona Cardinals is a great example of this idea. Nobody saw Arizona walking into Tennessee and crushing the Titans, one of the darling teams of the NFL offseason. On the flip side, not many people expected Minnesota to fall on the road to the Bengals.

So what should we believe? Is Arizona really this good, or is Minnesota really this disappointing? Let’s break it down:

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Details 

• Opening Line: Arizona -2.5
• Current Line: Arizona -3.5
• Total: 50.5 points

Vikings must clean up miscues 

Minnesota’s Week 1 loss to Cincinnati was as even as it gets. The Vikings out-gained the Bengals 403-366, but the yards per play averages were dead-even at 5.4. The difference in the game was uncharacteristic mistakes made by the Vikings. Minnesota committed a whopping 12 penalties accounting for 116 yards, and star running back Dalvin Cook gave the game away by fumbling on Cincinnati’s 38-yard line in overtime. This lack of discipline is rare for Mike Zimmer coached teams, and I expect a correction heading into Week 2.

Aside from those miscues, Minnesota’s offense moved the ball rather effectively. The Bengals made stopping Cook and the Vikings run game a priority, and it worked, as Minnesota had just 67 rushing yards on 22 carries. However, Kirk Cousins threw all over Cincinnati’s secondary, throwing for 351 yards and two scores.

Minnesota’s defense bent but didn’t break against Cincinnati. They allowed 366 total yards, including 149 on the ground, but held Cincinnati to 3-of-14 on third-down attempts and sacked quarterback Joe Burrow five times.

While it wasn’t a perfect performance, Minnesota did enough to win and would be 1-0 if not for self-inflicted wounds.

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Arizona needs to prove Week 1 wasn’t a fluke 

Perhaps no team was more impressive in Week 1 than Arizona. The question is, what do they have for an encore?

Arizona took it to Tennessee, jumping out to a 24-6 halftime lead and never looking back. The Cardinals averaged 6.2 yards per play, held Tennessee to 3.9 yards per play, recorded six sacks, and forced three turnovers.

Kyler Murray threw all over a Titans secondary I had major concerns about, throwing for 289 yards and four touchdowns. DeAndre Hopkins was his usual ridiculous self. Arizona’s tailback tandem of Chase Edmonds and James Conner even contributed, combining for 116 yards on the ground.

Most importantly, the Cards won without relying too much on Murray’s legs, as he rushed just five times for 20 yards and a TD. That’s critical for Arizona and for Murray, whose rushing exposed him to injury last season. However, accomplishing that plan is much easier against a Titans defense that struggled to rush the passer and offered little resistance in the secondary.

While the offense was excellent, I came away more impressed with Arizona’s defense. Part of this was game script-related, but holding Derrick Henry to just 58 yards on 17 carries is an accomplishment. And I’ve probably gone too long without mentioning Chandler Jones, who racked up five sacks on his own. Jones and the Arizona front seven could have similar success against a questionable Vikings offensive line.

Bottom Line

I’m taking this opportunity to buy low on Minnesota and sell high on Arizona.

Yes, the Cardinals were fantastic in Week 1. But that came against a Titans team that was out of sync offensively after a tricky offseason and a defense I expected to be among the league’s worst.

Ultimately, it’s telling that this line hasn’t really moved higher than Arizona -4.5 despite how great the Cardinals looked against a team many expected to win their division. This should be a battle between 1-0 teams, and while backing Kirk Cousins makes my stomach turn, the Vikings have the coaching advantage of Zimmer against Kliff Kingsbury. I wouldn’t be surprised if Minnesota won outright.

The pick: Minnesota +3.5 or better

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