NFL Parlay and Best Bets for Panthers at Texans: Thursday Night Football (Week 3)

Sep 22, 2021 - 9:21 PM

Parlay bets are a fun way to build your bankroll fast. However, the extra rewards come with extra risk — if you aren’t careful, parlays will burn through your bankroll faster than you can break even.

Fortunately, DraftKings offers users a $25 risk-free bet on NFL same-game parlays. So with nothing to lose (and bankroll to gain), how should you attack Thursday night’s action? For starters, expect to see me feature quite a few overs in this column. Since 2017, the over has hit in 60% of games played on Thursday; in 2020, it hit 57.1% of the time. The over is currently 2-0 on the year, too. I suspect that’s due to a lack of adequate rest and preparation, both of which make life hard for defensive players.

I advise that you approach this column as a strong parlay that features a handful of smart straight bets. I’ll include recommended unit sizes for each play, along with a recommended parlay size. NOTE: DraftKings Sportsbook’s same-game parlay feature uses lines that are not available as single-wager markets.

Get a $25 risk-free bet on an NFL same-game parlay at DraftKings >>

Parlay YTD: 2-0-0 (+3.66u)
Straight Bets YTD: 4-0-0 (+2.29u)
All NFL Bets YTD: 9-4-0 (+2.69u)

Leg #1. Mark Ingram u49.5 Rushing Yards

Related Straight Bet: Mark Ingram u43.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115)
Straight Bet Size: .5u

We don’t have much to go on, but Matt Rhule seems to have built an elite rushing defense in Carolina. The Panthers have allowed just 57 total yards to running backs (and 2.03 yards per carry, or YPC). According to FootballOutsiders, the Panthers’ defensive line has surrendered the fewest adjusted line yards by a wide margin — their mark (2.41) is 0.44 yards better than the next-best Baltimore Ravens. While that figure feels unsustainably low (the Tampa Bay Buccaneers led the league with 3.60 adjusted line yards last season), the Houston Texans will still probably struggle to run the ball against Carolina.

Although the Texans have exceeded expectations thus far, they are far from a great team, especially when it comes to their running game. Their offensive line has created the seventh-fewest adjusted line yards (3.73). Their running backs have created the fourth-fewest yards (3.03), too.

Mark Ingram leads this backfield in carries with 40. That ranks him fifth in the NFL. Ingram has turned those carries into only 126 yards (3.15 YPC), making him the second-least efficient running back on the ground among those with 20-plus carries. He leads only his former Saints teammate, Alvin Kamara (3.14 YPC). Shockingly, Ingram is not the least efficient running back on Houston’s roster — that honor goes to Phillip Lindsay (2.07 YPC, 13 carries).

At his current YPC, Ingram would need 16 carries to surpass this total. I don’t expect him to see that level of usage in what should be a negative game script for Houston’s ground attack. That said, David Culley is not the league’s most rational decision-maker. As a result, I’ve teased Ingram’s total up a notch.

Oh, and one final fun fact: Ingram’s longest run of the year went for 11 yards. That means 27.5% of his yards came on 2.5% of his carries.

Leg #2. David Johnson 15+ Receiving Yards

Related Straight Bet: David Johnson o2.5 Receptions (+105)
Straight Bet Size: .5u

Johnson has surpassed this mark twice in two games. He caught three passes for 18 yards against the Jaguars and two passes for 22 against the Browns. Not all of those targets came from the now-injured Tyrod Taylor; in fact, Davis Mills looked Johnson’s way twice as the Texans tried to keep up with Cleveland.

There is some solid game theory to support this pick, too. The Texans should end up playing from behind on Thursday, so Mills will probably find Johnson for a few dump-off receptions. And if Johnson is on the field more often, Ingram probably isn’t, which means that this line correlates somewhat with the one above.

However, this play is where the true risk lies in this bet. Carolina’s defensive prowess against opposing rushers has extended to their role in the passing game. The Panthers have permitted the fourth-fewest receptions by running backs (6) and the fifth-fewest receiving yards (50). It’s also concerning that Johnson ran a route on just three plays against the Browns.

I’m not exactly sure what the Texans are doing. I’m not sure if they know, either. However, they will probably realize the futility of running a 31-year-old power back straight at Derrick Brown and pass to their 29-year-old receiving specialist instead.

Leg #3. Texans o7.5 Points

In 2020, only one Thursday night game ended with a team scoring below this total. It happened four times in 2019 but just twice in the two seasons prior. Given that the NFL usually selects the league’s worst-performing teams for the Thursday night showcase, those numbers aren’t that bad. I’m reasonably confident that Houston will score at least a touchdown and a field goal (or three field goals) against the Panthers.

While I’m aware that taking Davis Mills’ team in the rookie’s first start isn’t the safest bet, Mills led a touchdown-scoring drive against the Browns. And if Joey Slye had managed to hit a 41-yard field goal, the Texans would’ve scored 10 points under Mills’ leadership in just one half of action.

If you’re really concerned about this line, think about it this way: Zach Wilson scored two touchdowns against the Panthers. Even though Jameis Winston and the New Orleans Saints could only manage one touchdown, the lack of rest incumbent to this matchup will make Houston’s life a little bit easier.

Total Odds: +165 at DraftKings

Parlay Bet Size: 1u

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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.

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