Washington Football Team vs. Buffalo Bills Odds & Game Pick (2021)

Sep 24, 2021 - 9:57 PM

Buffalo enters Week 3 searching for the offensive rhythm that made them so successful in 2020. Through two games, they are 31st in yards per passing attempt (5.3 yards). It’s been a struggle for Josh Allen and crew, and now they are set to take on the Washington Football Team pass defense that has given up only two passing TDs on the season. Washington has their own concerns. Their defensive unit has allowed opponents to convert on 18 of 31 third-down conversion attempts in 2021. Both teams enter 1-1, looking to build off Week 2 victories.

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Pags’ NFL Picks YTD: 7-1-0 (+7.12 units)

Details

• Opening Line: Buffalo -9.5
• Current Line: Buffalo -7.5
• Over/Under: 47.5
• Location: Highmark Stadium, Buffalo, NY
• Start Time: 1:00 PM ET
• Last Meeting: Buffalo 25, Washington 9

Overview

Buffalo’s secondary was entirely dominant last week against Miami and has been their best group in 2021 so far. Despite facing the ninth-most pass attempts in the league (76), they have given up only 322 yards through the air, good for second-best in the NFL. Their top three coverage defenders have been targeted 40 times on the year while only allowing opposing QBs to complete 52.5% of those targets. Additionally, rookie DE Gregory Rousseau has been a force. He leads the team in Hurries, Sacks, and total Pressures. The defense is fierce in Buffalo.

Washington will continue to go with QB Taylor Heinicke as their starter in light of Ryan Fitzpatrick’s hip injury. Heinicke has been very accurate with his throws in 2021, completing 45 of 61 passes. However, last week, 34 for 46 against the New York Giants isn’t the resume builder WFT would want you to believe. The Football Team has kept their QB upright so far, allowing only one sack in 68 dropbacks. Buffalo will be the biggest challenge for the Washington o-line and inexperienced QB to date in 2021.

The two units most expected to talk about heading into this matchup are still searching to put their stamp on the season. Washington’s defensive front hasn’t disrupted either QB they’ve faced thus far, and Buffalo’s passing attack has underperformed the preseason expectations. So each team hopes the other’s scuffling group will wait one more week to prove their worth.

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Trends

• Washington is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games as an underdog
• Totals have gone UNDER in 6 of Washington’s last 8 games
• Buffalo is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games vs Washington
• Totals have gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo’s last 5 home games
• Buffalo leads the all-time series 9-6

Bottom Line

Washington hasn’t won in Buffalo since 1987. Buffalo is very good at home, especially under Josh Allen (16-8). But it is their pass coverage that will make the difference in this contest. Taylor Heinicke isn’t the most talented passer, and Tre’Davious White and gang will put his shortcomings on display. Conversely, Josh Allen is too good to sputter along as he has. Last week, Buffalo scored 35 despite Allen’s play, but this week he can get right against the weakest secondary he’s faced this year.

DraftKings Sportsbook has this spread down to 7.5 (-105) and the total at 45.5. Washington isn’t going to score enough to help the Bills hit that point total. The UNDER 45.5 is our favorite play in this game, but Buffalo -7.5 isn’t far behind. They are the complete team, at home, against a backup QB, and in need of an inspiring performance by their franchise QB. This could end up as lopsided as Week 2’s tilt with Miami.

Prediction: Buffalo 30, Washington 13

Picks: Buffalo -7.5 | 1.0 units, UNDER 45.5 | 1.0 units

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Aaron Pags is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Aaron, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyTriage.

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