NFL Player Prop Bets: Week 3 (2021)

Sep 25, 2021 - 10:29 AM

Once again, I’m using DraftKings Sportsbook for props because of the volume of player props they have to pick from. Still, I suggest line shopping for more favorable player totals across multiple sportsbooks if you have the available time to do so. For instance, finding a lower yardage number for a player prop you like to go over enhances your odds of cashing. Conversely, if you want an under and find a higher yardage total, the same idea applies.

Let’s take a look at a few player props for Week 3 that caught my attention.

View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

Justin Fields (CHI) OVER 0.5 Interceptions (-175)

At -175, there’s a little extra juice for betting Fields’ interception over. However, I’m confident he’ll throw at least one pick. Further, if you can find a book offering plus odds on over 1.5 interceptions, I like that bet, too.

The rookie signal-caller has a challenging introduction to starting ahead of him. First, he’ll be on the road against a talented defense, facing the 7.0-point favored Browns. As a touchdown and successful PAT underdog, Fields projects to be forced into a negative game script and predictable passing situations, a recipe for the defense pinning their ears back and generating pressure.

Fields might hurt his cause, inviting pressure as well. According to Pro Football Focus, among quarterbacks with a minimum of 10 dropbacks this year, Fields’ 3.22-second time-to-throw mark is the slowest. Ranking in fourth is last week’s rookie quarterback turned interception machine, Zach Wilson. In addition, Fields is already responsible for one interception, and another play Pro Football Focus deemed turnover-worthy on only 21 dropbacks and 15 pass attempts in relief of Andy Dalton last week.

Fields did this despite playing in a positive game script. As a result, I’m expecting him to put the ball in harm’s way on multiple occasions next week, hitting his over for 0.5 interceptions.

Place the bet now >>

T.J. Hockenson (DET) OVER 61.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

The projected negative game script for Fields enhances his cause for hitting his interception over, and it does the same for Hockenson hitting his yardage over. Betting Pros lists the Lions as 7.5-point underdogs against the Ravens. In addition, even if things don’t go according to the betting line, Detroit’s putrid defense (dead last in Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) metric) should force the offense to air it out and keep the pedal to the metal.

When the Lions pass, Hockenson’s the top option for Jared Goff. The third-year tight end leads the team in targets (20), receptions (16), and receiving yards (163). He also leads the way in none box-score numbers. According to Pro Football Focus, Hockenson has a commanding lead in passing snaps and routes with 100 and 89, well clear of the second-highest marks of 78 and 73.

Additionally, the Lions aren’t treating him as a stationary traditional inline tight end. Sure, he’s played 27 passing snaps inline. However, he’s lined up wide seven times, and he’s lined up most frequently in the slot with 66 snaps. Hockenson’s usage through two weeks has resulted in 97 receiving yards in Week 1 and 66 receiving yards in Week 2, so I’m expecting him to surpass 61.5 receiving yards for a third straight week.

Place the bet now >>

Elijah Moore (NYJ) UNDER 35.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

I’m picking on another rookie with my final prop suggestion. The Jets’ offense is a tire fire presently. Wilson’s earned Pro Football Focus’s fifth-lowest passing grade out of 35 quarterbacks with at least 20 dropbacks. They also rank dead last in Football Outsiders’ pass offense DVOA.

Things won’t get any easier for them in a tough matchup this week on the road, as the host Broncos rank 10th in pass defense DVOA. Pro Football Focus also grades them fifth in pass coverage, and they’re coming off a dominant performance on the road against No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence. Thus, the deck is stacked against Moore.

Additionally, his usage is worth noting. Moore was primarily used in the slot at Ole Miss. Understandably, NFL analyst Lance Zierlein’s prospect overview and scouting report discussed him as a slot receiver. Pro Football Focus’s lead draft analyst Mike Renner used a faster Cole Beasley comp but did voice a willingness to give him a look outside in Pro Football Focus’s draft guide. However, Renner’s Pro Football Focus colleague, Sam Monson, raised concerns about Moore’s ability to transition to the perimeter as a pro.

So far, the Jets are mainly using him outside. He’s played 70.3% of his passing snaps aligned outside compared to 29.7% in the slot. Instead of using Moore in his more natural position, the Jets are using Braxton Berrios there for 75.0% of his passing snaps.

The early results aren’t alleviating concerns about Moore winning matchups on the outside. Out of 73 receivers targeted at least five times this season, Moore’s earned Pro Football Focus’s 76th receiving grade and ranks 86th in yards per route run (0.66 Y/RR). So I’ll gladly take the under on Moore’s receiving yardage prop.

Place the bet now >>

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including How to Bet on Sports — or head to more advanced strategy — like 10 Tips to Become a Sharper Sports Bettor — to learn more.

Bet $10, Win $200 if Your Team Scores a TD >>

Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

The post NFL Player Prop Bets: Week 3 (2021) appeared first on BettingPros.