Early NFL Parlay and Best Bets: Week 4

Sep 28, 2021 - 12:27 AM

Oof. We’re now 0-3 on the year after the Kansas City Chiefs failed to cover (or win). However, the Packers covered and the Browns won, so we were just one leg off. We’re back at it again this week, and I’m optimistic about our chances of rebounding.

The underlying thesis of this article series is that it’s best to bet early. You should do so because sportsbooks will adjust their lines after sharp bettors place their initial wagers. Once they’ve done so, you’re not just playing against the house — you’re also playing against some of the smartest minds in the game. Don’t believe me? Well, here’s what professional gambler (and Jeopardy! champion) James Holzhauer has to say on the matter:

“When you bet right after the opening number is posted, you essentially gamble that you’re smarter than the handful of sportsbook employees who set the line. When you bet 10 minutes before the game starts, you hope in vain that you know something all the world’s sharp bettors don’t.” You can read the rest of his comments here in The Athletic.

Ultimately, I recommend that you read this article as a guide to two things: first, a smart parlay for the weekend’s action; second, a list of smart straight bets to target individually. Aside from the parlay, I’ll label my favorite picks each week and advise you on the proper unit size for each play.

Parlay YTD: 0-3-0 (-3u)
Straight Bets YTD: 3-3-0 (-1.05u)
All NFL Bets YTD: 12-8-0 (+1.4u)

Leg #1. Ravens +3.5 | -160 at DK Sportsbook

Straight Bet Size: 1u

This week’s parlay features a handful of lines that I can best describe as “bruh moments.” The Baltimore Ravens should not be underdogs against the Denver Broncos. I do not care that they almost lost to the Detroit Lions last week. There is an excellent explanation for why that happened ⁠— the team lost four key defensive players to the Reserve/COVID-19 list: Brandon Williams, Justin Madubuike, Justin Houston, and Jaylon Ferguson. They should get most (if not all) of them back for next week’s trip to Denver.

The Ravens have played an efficient brand of football this year. Heading into Week 3, they ranked fourth in FootballOutsiders’ DAVE (DVOA Adjusted for Variation Early) metric. The Broncos ranked ninth. That isn’t terribly far behind, but we aren’t taking the Ravens to win. We just need them to keep it within a field goal. They will do that.

Although the Broncos are a respectable 3-0, they haven’t played a real team yet, and game-manager extraordinaire Teddy Bridgewater has gotten plenty of help from his running backs. If the Ravens can return those four defensive assets, they should limit Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams, and I don’t expect Bridgewater to excel in those circumstances.

Denver may (doubtfully) get this one by a field goal. But they won’t win by a margin any wider than that, and they certainly shouldn’t be favored. Expect this line to move in Baltimore’s favor as the books come to their senses.

Leg #2. Cowboys ML | -190 at DK Sportsbook

Straight Bet Size: 1u

Again. Bruh moment. Sure, the Cowboys (and Ravens) are both public teams. Yes, I’m aware that I’m probably betting against the sharp money here. But the 3-0 Carolina Panthers are frauds — and they’re injured! So how on Earth is Dallas just a 3.5-point favorite?

To recap Carolina’s injuries: rookie cornerback Jaycee Horn just landed on injured reserve. Defensive end Yetur Gross-Matos and safety Juston Burris probably won’t be available next week. Newly acquired cornerback C.J. Henderson probably can’t get up to speed on the playbook before Week 4, either. Oh, and Christian McCaffrey won’t play next week.

The Cowboys have had a tepid start to the year. They lost a winnable game against the Buccaneers and won a losable game against the Chargers. But they’re playing on Monday Night Football this week, and they should remind the world that they’re competent enough to handle a team like Carolina.

Dallas should be a much larger favorite by the time kickoff rolls around this Sunday. Buy them before the line moves.

Leg #3. Lions +7.5 | -245 at DK Sportsbook

Related Straight Bet: Lions +3 (-115 at DK Sportsbook)
Straight Bet Size: 1u

Uh… how are the Chicago Bears favored here? They are an ugly 1-2. They got blown out by the (admitted terrifying) Los Angeles Rams. Then they only beat the Bengals by a field goal despite Joe Burrow throwing three interceptions! Then they got blown out by the Cleveland Browns. New starting quarterback Justin Fields threw for 68 passing yards (and lost 67 yards on nine sacks). His performance was so bad that head coach Matt Nagy has thrust Nick Foles back into the starting quarterback conversation.

Meanwhile, the Lions almost beat the Ravens last week. They looked respectable against the Packers for a half in Week 2, and they nearly came back against the 49ers in Week 1. This team has grit. They are also the Lions, though, so don’t set your expectations too high. That’s why we’re taking them plus a full touchdown in our parlay. Taking them as field-goal underdogs is also probably a good value bet this early in the week, too.

Leg #4. Packers ML | -280 at DK Sportsbook

Straight Bet Size: N/A

Aaron Rodgers led a classic game-winning drive against the 49ers on Sunday night. He almost certainly won’t have to do that against the Steelers next week. Their offensive line is awful, Ben Roethlisberger looks terrible, and half the roster is hurt. T.J. Watt missed last week’s action with a groin injury. He seems headed for a questionable tag this week. Diontae Johnson got hurt in Week 2 and may not be back for a few games. JuJu Smith-Schuster suffered a rib injury and could miss some action. Expect the Packers to easily get the win in this Super Bowl XLV rematch.

Total Odds: +373 at DK Sportsbook

Parlay Bet Size: 1u

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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.

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